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AI and the Future of Skills: Measures
and implications for education
OECD
22 May 2024
Stuart Elliott (Project Leader), Abel Baret, Margarita Kalamova,
Aurelija Masiulyte, Sam Mitchell, Nóra Révai and Marc Fuster
Context Activities Outcomes
An evidence-informed
understanding of how
technology will be affecting skills
demand and education systems.
No robust and accessible
measures on what AI can and
cannot do.
A shared understanding of what
technology is capable of.
Scale development:
 Describe AI capabilities
Example tasks
 Show evolving use of AI in tasks
Educational actors rely on lay
knowledge to assess the
implication of AI on education.
Exploratory studies to understand
the changing skills demand and the
transformation of education
AI and the Future of Skills
3
ChatGPT taking PISA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reading Math Science
15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
4
ChatGPT taking PISA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reading Math Science
15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
5
ChatGPT taking PISA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reading Math Science
15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
6
ChatGPT taking PISA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Reading Math Science
15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
7
Measuring AI in four broad domains
Language
Language
understanding
Sensorimotor
…
Language
generation
Manipulation
Vision
Planning
Integration
Reasoning
…
Meta-cognition
Critical thinking
Problem solving
Knowledge, memory
and learning
Social
…
Social perception
Social reasoning and
decision-making
Social action
8
Evolution of an Example Task: Changing Human Role
Without AI None
ChatGPT
Provide initial
draft
Human
 Collect, structure and describe
information
 Draft text and revise
With ChatGPT
With improved
ChatGPT (+)
Writing a short paper
 Prompt ChatGPT
 Review draft and identify errors to fix
 Collect information and revise ChatGPT
draft
Provide initial
draft that includes
fact-checking
 Prompt ChatGPT+
 Review draft and identify alternative
arguments
 Prompt ChatGPT to revise draft
 Language and reasoning examples
– Preparing a lecture
– Reviewing an engineering proposal
– …
 Sensorimotor examples
– Installing an electrical system
– Providing emergency first aid
– …
 Social examples
– Resolving customer complaints
– Negotiating with employee union
– …
9
Project is sampling a range of job tasks for analysis
 AI will perform many cognitive tasks at near-
human levels
 Application will take time (~5 years?) but AI
will be used
 In most contexts we will perform cognitive
tasks with AI help
 AI will reduce the effects of cognitive
inequality
– People with weaker cognitive skills will be
helped more
10
Implications of AI
Forms of
denial
Resistance Initial thoughts
 AI will move more quickly on some job tasks than others
– Faster on language and reasoning tasks
– Slower on sensorimotor tasks
– Faster on social tasks using language
– Slower on social tasks using sensorimotor capabilities
11
Implications of AI: Education and training for jobs
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Master's
Bachelor's
Short-cycle tertiary
Upper secondary
Below upper secondary
Job tasks where Generative AI could cut time by 50% or more, by education
12
Implications of AI: Larger for Higher Education Graduates
Source: OpenAI, 2023, GPTs are GPTs, arXiv:2303.10130v5
short-term & medium term
13
Implications of AI: General strategy for explorations
Curriculum
Job training
Assessment
Teaching and Learning
Schools and the classroom
How will AI change what students learn?
How will AI change post-secondary education and training?
How will AI change educational assessment?
How will AI change the way teachers teach and students learn?
How is AI used in schools and classrooms?
For more information:
Stuart.Elliott@oecd.org (Project leader)
Margarita.Kalamova@oecd.org
www.oecd.org/education/ceri/future-of-skills.htm
14
Thank you

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Future Dreaming 2024 | AI and the future of skills "Measures and implications for education"

  • 1. AI and the Future of Skills: Measures and implications for education OECD 22 May 2024 Stuart Elliott (Project Leader), Abel Baret, Margarita Kalamova, Aurelija Masiulyte, Sam Mitchell, Nóra Révai and Marc Fuster
  • 2. Context Activities Outcomes An evidence-informed understanding of how technology will be affecting skills demand and education systems. No robust and accessible measures on what AI can and cannot do. A shared understanding of what technology is capable of. Scale development:  Describe AI capabilities Example tasks  Show evolving use of AI in tasks Educational actors rely on lay knowledge to assess the implication of AI on education. Exploratory studies to understand the changing skills demand and the transformation of education AI and the Future of Skills
  • 3. 3 ChatGPT taking PISA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Reading Math Science 15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
  • 4. 4 ChatGPT taking PISA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Reading Math Science 15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
  • 5. 5 ChatGPT taking PISA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Reading Math Science 15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
  • 6. 6 ChatGPT taking PISA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Reading Math Science 15-year-olds GPT-3.5 (Nov'22) GPT-4 (Mar'23) GPT-4V (Sep'23)
  • 7. 7 Measuring AI in four broad domains Language Language understanding Sensorimotor … Language generation Manipulation Vision Planning Integration Reasoning … Meta-cognition Critical thinking Problem solving Knowledge, memory and learning Social … Social perception Social reasoning and decision-making Social action
  • 8. 8 Evolution of an Example Task: Changing Human Role Without AI None ChatGPT Provide initial draft Human  Collect, structure and describe information  Draft text and revise With ChatGPT With improved ChatGPT (+) Writing a short paper  Prompt ChatGPT  Review draft and identify errors to fix  Collect information and revise ChatGPT draft Provide initial draft that includes fact-checking  Prompt ChatGPT+  Review draft and identify alternative arguments  Prompt ChatGPT to revise draft
  • 9.  Language and reasoning examples – Preparing a lecture – Reviewing an engineering proposal – …  Sensorimotor examples – Installing an electrical system – Providing emergency first aid – …  Social examples – Resolving customer complaints – Negotiating with employee union – … 9 Project is sampling a range of job tasks for analysis
  • 10.  AI will perform many cognitive tasks at near- human levels  Application will take time (~5 years?) but AI will be used  In most contexts we will perform cognitive tasks with AI help  AI will reduce the effects of cognitive inequality – People with weaker cognitive skills will be helped more 10 Implications of AI Forms of denial Resistance Initial thoughts
  • 11.  AI will move more quickly on some job tasks than others – Faster on language and reasoning tasks – Slower on sensorimotor tasks – Faster on social tasks using language – Slower on social tasks using sensorimotor capabilities 11 Implications of AI: Education and training for jobs
  • 12. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Master's Bachelor's Short-cycle tertiary Upper secondary Below upper secondary Job tasks where Generative AI could cut time by 50% or more, by education 12 Implications of AI: Larger for Higher Education Graduates Source: OpenAI, 2023, GPTs are GPTs, arXiv:2303.10130v5
  • 13. short-term & medium term 13 Implications of AI: General strategy for explorations Curriculum Job training Assessment Teaching and Learning Schools and the classroom How will AI change what students learn? How will AI change post-secondary education and training? How will AI change educational assessment? How will AI change the way teachers teach and students learn? How is AI used in schools and classrooms?
  • 14. For more information: Stuart.Elliott@oecd.org (Project leader) Margarita.Kalamova@oecd.org www.oecd.org/education/ceri/future-of-skills.htm 14 Thank you
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