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The Macro Backdrop for NYC Commercial Office Space

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Heidi Learner, CFA
Heidi Learner, CFA

- Office employment growth in New York City has slowed to 0.6% annually through August 2018 compared to 1.9% the previous year. Employment growth in the finance and information sectors has declined. - Manhattan has seen steadier office employment growth of around 3% annually even as the number of office establishments has peaked. The technology sector remains the bright spot for job growth. - Consumer price inflation in the New York region is lower than the national average at 2.2% due to more modest growth in housing costs. Home price appreciation in the New York metro area also remains well below other major cities.

Real Estate
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Presented by: Heidi Learner, Chief Economist October 2018 New York: Macro CRE Overview
2 Office Employment Growth is Slowing… Total office-using employment in New York City is up just 0.6% on a year-over-year basis through August 2018; in August 2017, annual growth was 1.9%. Highlights New York City Office Employment and Growth (Level of Employment in 000s, SA and % Change in Employment, YoY) -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 1,000 1,080 1,160 1,240 1,320 1,400 1,480 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 000s New York City Office Employment (000s) YoY % ChangeSource: BLS
3 Downward Trend for Finance and Information NYC employment in Information and Financial Activities, two of the major components of office-using jobs, appears to have topped out early in 2018. Highlights New York City Employment by Sector (Seasonally Adjusted, 000s) 185 188 191 194 197 200 455 460 465 470 475 480 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Financial Activities (000s) Information (000s)Source: BLS Financial Activities Information
4 Labor Availability Remains Tight Manhattan’s unemployment rate (3.8% in July 2018) remains at historical lows, and is roughly equal to the national unemployment rate (3.9% in August 2018). Highlights Unemployment Rate in Manhattan, NY Metro and U.S. (Seasonally Adjusted, %) 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Manhattan New York Metropolitan Division U.S.Source: BLS
5 Slightly Brighter Picture in Manhattan In Manhattan, office-using employment growth has held steady around 3%, even as the number of office establishments appears to have peaked. Highlights Office Employment Growth and Number of Establishments, Manhattan (% Change in Employment, YoY and Level of Establishments) 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 54,000 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total Office Establishments (#) Percentage Change in Office Employment, Manhattan (YoY) Source: BLS
6 Manhattan: Where the Jobs Are Employment data specifically for Manhattan, rather than New York City, are released with a 9-month lag. Through the first quarter of 2018, the bright spot on the employment front remained in the TAMI sector, where job growth (2.4% YoY) was greater than growth in either the finance or non-finance professional sectors. We infer from the aggregate New York City data (slide 3) that growth in both sectors has since slowed. Highlights Manhattan Employment by Type of Establishment (Level in 000s, Not Seasonally Adjusted) 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 TAMI Finance Non-Finance Professional Workers(thousands) Q1 2017 Q1 2018Source: BLS TAMI = Telecommunications, Software Publishers, ISPs, Search & Data Processing/Hosting, Internet Publishing/Broadcasting, Advertising/PR, Computer Systems Design and Scientific R&D. Non-Finance Professional = Insurance, Real Estate, Rental/Leasing Services, Legal, Accounting, Architectural/Engineering, Specialized Design, Management/Technical Consulting and Other Professional/Technical Services.
7 Business Formation Remains Sluggish The number of new business establishments in Manhattan has shrunk in the three major office- using sectors over the last year. The count of some establishment types, including professional and technical service firms as well as real estate and leasing firms, actually has contracted since 2016. Highlights Manhattan Establishments by Sector (Number of Establishments, Not Seasonally Adjusted) 8,356 10,998 20,048 8,454 11,145 20,289 8,429 11,040 20,003 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Finance and Insurance Real Estate & Rental/Leasing Professional/Technical Services Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018Source: BLS and Moody's
8 Income + Spending: Both Growing Local personal income tax collections (net) are up a significant 13.6% in the fiscal year through August on a year-on-year basis. Income growth is supporting growth in retail sales, as growth in sales and use taxes is up more than 7% over the same period. Highlights New York City (Local) Net Tax Collections ($ millions, Fiscal Year-to-Date) +13.6% +7.2% $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 New York City Personal Income Sales & Use DollarsMillions April 2017 - August 2017 April 2018 - August 2018 Source: NY State
9 Inflation Still Tame Consumer Price Inflation by Region (% Change, YoY through July/August 2018*) Growth in total consumer prices in the greater New York region is running at 2.2% over the 12 months ending August 2018, below the U.S. average of 2.7%. Contributing to the relatively slower pace of inflation is a more modest pace of price gains in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), the imputed cost of owned housing as determined from rental pricing. OER in the New York region rose by 2.4% in the twelve months ending August 2018, below the 3.3% gain nationally. Highlights 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Chicago/Gary/Kenosha Boston/Worcester/Lawrence* Dallas/FortWorth* Houston/Galveston/Brazoria* LA/Riverside/OrangeCo. Miami/FortLauderdale* NY/N.NewJersey/LongIsland Phila/Wilmington/AtlanticCity* SanFran/Oakland/SanJose* Washington,D.C./Baltimore* TotalUS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *CPI is for some regions is reported on alternate months.
10 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% US20-CityComp. Atlanta,GA Boston,MA Charlotte,NC Chicago,IL Dallas,TX Denver,CO LosAngeles,CA Miami,FL NewYork,NY Phoenix,AZ SanDiego,CA SanFrancisco,CA Tampa,FL Washington,DC July 2017 YoY July 2018 YoY Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Jan 2000=100, 3-mo MA (NSA) Home Price Appreciation Remains Subdued S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Single Family Home Prices (Year-over-Year % Change through July 2018) New York metro-area single-family home price growth has remained well below the increases observed throughout the rest of the country. New York metro-area single-family home prices are just 18% above recession troughs, well below the 54% advance observed across the U.S. 20-city composite index. Highlights
11 Broker Confidence is Steady Broker confidence rose slightly in Q2 2018 (the most recent data range), although figures are still above early 2017 levels. Highlights REBNY Commercial Broker Confidence Range = 0 to 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 REBNY Commercial Broker Confidence Index REBNY Commercial Broker Overall Confidence Index REBNY Commercial Broker Overall Confidence Index (Current) REBNY Commercial Broker Confidence Index (Future) Source: REBNY
12 Venture Capital Funding: NY Approximately $4.5B of venture capital funding was invested in New York state targets in Q3 2018, substantially up from the $2.2B of announced investment in Q2 2018. The average invested amount was also higher this quarter, since there were only 91 deals announced in Q3 2018 vs. the 115 deals announced in Q2 2018. Highlights NY Metro Venture Capital: Top 10 Deals in Q3 2018 (Funding in $ millions) NY-Based Target Investment Industry / Sector Peloton Interactive $550.0 Fitness WeWork $500.0 Co-Working Tillman Infrastructure $500.0 Telecom Ambatana $500.0 E-Commerce Urban Compass $400.0 E-Commerce UiPath $225.0 Enterprise Software MediaMath $225.0 Applications Software High Street Capital/ Acreage Holdings $119.0 Drug Development Enigma Technologies $95.0 Data Processing ClassPass $85.0 Fitness Source: Bloomberg
13 Leasing Volumes Slow Office leasing activity appears to have slowed over the last several quarters. According to CoStar data, on a trailing 12-month basis, Manhattan office leasing averaged 9.1 msf in Q3 2018, versus 10.3 msf in Q3 2017. Highlights Manhattan Quarterly Office Leasing Volume: By Class and Total (Square Feet) 4,000,000 7,000,000 10,000,000 13,000,000 16,000,000 0 3,000,000 6,000,000 9,000,000 12,000,000 Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Class A, SF Class B/C, SF Total Leasing Volume, SF (Right-Hand Side)Source: CoStar
14 Class A Space Remains the Favorite…For Now Tenants increasingly have favored Class A buildings when signing new leases, although the fraction of total square footage signed in Class A buildings has fallen somewhat, perhaps reflecting the fact that rent per square foot is at peak levels for the current cycle. Highlights Fraction of Manhattan Lease Activity Occurring in Class A Buildings (By Square Feet) 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Class A Leasing Activity, Fraction of Total Leasing ActivitySource: CoStar
15 Sublease Activity Holds Steady… Sublease volumes as a percentage of total leasing activity on a square footage basis have remained steady, ranging between 12% - 18% in the current cycle, although the trajectory has trended downward over the last several quarters. Highlights Manhattan Sublease Activity, Fraction of Total Volume (By Square Feet) 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Fraction SubleasedSource: CoStar
16 …Even as Sublet Space is On the Rise The fraction of space available by subletting tenants has been on the rise, even as it is still low in absolute square footage terms (7.9 msf for Class A sublet space; 3.3 msf for Class B/C sublet space.) Highlights Manhattan Space, Fraction Available by Sublet and Class (By Square Feet) 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Fraction of Class A Space Available by Sublet Fraction of Class B/C Space Available by Sublet Source: CoStar
17 Net Absorption: Now Positive After three years of negative net absorption, the first three quarters of 2018 have brought positive net absorption of both Class A and Class B/C space—a phenomenon that has not occurred over the last decade. Year-to-date, net absorption by WeWork alone has totaled almost 1 msf. Highlights Manhattan Net Absorption (millions of square feet) 3.2 -4.4 -9.0 -3.0 0.1 -1.6 -2.6 4.4 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 4.5 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTDthroughQ32018 Class A Class B/CSource: CoStar
18 Q3 2018 Large Leases Tenant SF Address Type Tenant Brokerage Evercore 350,000 55 East 52nd Direct (Renewal/Expansion) Colliers Pfizer 350,000 219 East 42nd Direct (Sale/Leaseback) n/a WeWork 258,000 21 Penn Plaza/ 368 Ninth Avenue Direct (New) Newmark Bessemer Trust 239,000 1271 Avenue of the Americas Direct (Relocation) Cushman & Wakefield Convene 116,000 530 Fifth Avenue Direct (New) CBRE Spaces 111,000 405 Lexington Direct (New) JLL Aetna 106,000 161 Sixth Avenue/ One Soho Square Direct (Relocation) Cushman & Wakefield Spaces 103,000 287 Park Avenue South Direct (New) JLL Sources: The Real Deal and CoStar The number of large (100,000+ sf) leases signed in Q3 2018 has fallen, consistent with the slowing in total lease volume.
19 Occupied Space Starting to Rise Employment appears to lag trends in occupied space, contrary to popular belief. After several years of no growth in aggregate occupied space, the trend is changing. For the first time since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, occupied space in Manhattan is back above 520 msf. Highlights Manhattan Occupied Office Space and Office-Using Employment 850,000 887,500 925,000 962,500 1,000,000 1,037,500 1,075,000 1,112,500 1,150,000 1,187,500 490,000,000 500,000,000 510,000,000 520,000,000 530,000,000 540,000,000 550,000,000 560,000,000 570,000,000 Mar-94 Dec-95 Sep-97 Jun-99 Mar-01 Dec-02 Sep-04 Jun-06 Mar-08 Dec-09 Sep-11 Jun-13 Mar-15 Dec-16 Sep-18 WorkersSF Manhattan Occupied Space (SF) Manhattan Office Employment Two Quarters Ahead, SA Source: Savills Studley and CoStar Figures reflect imputed values for Manhattan employment. All data as of 9/21/18.
20 Lower Transaction Volumes While sales prices continue to rise (reaching $953/square foot in Q3 2018), activity continues to be muted, even as total transaction volume has ticked up over the last few quarters. Highlights Manhattan Office Sales Activity, Volume and Price Per Square Foot, (12-Month Average) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Mar-02 Nov-02 Jul-03 Mar-04 Nov-04 Jul-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Mar-08 Nov-08 Jul-09 Mar-10 Nov-10 Jul-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 Jul-13 Mar-14 Nov-14 Jul-15 Mar-16 Nov-16 Jul-17 Mar-18 Billions Manhattan Office, Number of Property Transactions, Left-Hand Side Manhattan Office Price ($/SF), Left-Hand Side Manhattan Office Volume ($ Billions), Right-Hand Side Source: RCA Includes property or portfolio sales $2.5 million or greater.

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The Macro Backdrop for NYC Commercial Office Space

  • 1. Presented by: Heidi Learner, Chief Economist October 2018 New York: Macro CRE Overview
  • 2. 2 Office Employment Growth is Slowing… Total office-using employment in New York City is up just 0.6% on a year-over-year basis through August 2018; in August 2017, annual growth was 1.9%. Highlights New York City Office Employment and Growth (Level of Employment in 000s, SA and % Change in Employment, YoY) -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 1,000 1,080 1,160 1,240 1,320 1,400 1,480 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 000s New York City Office Employment (000s) YoY % ChangeSource: BLS
  • 3. 3 Downward Trend for Finance and Information NYC employment in Information and Financial Activities, two of the major components of office-using jobs, appears to have topped out early in 2018. Highlights New York City Employment by Sector (Seasonally Adjusted, 000s) 185 188 191 194 197 200 455 460 465 470 475 480 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Financial Activities (000s) Information (000s)Source: BLS Financial Activities Information
  • 4. 4 Labor Availability Remains Tight Manhattan’s unemployment rate (3.8% in July 2018) remains at historical lows, and is roughly equal to the national unemployment rate (3.9% in August 2018). Highlights Unemployment Rate in Manhattan, NY Metro and U.S. (Seasonally Adjusted, %) 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Manhattan New York Metropolitan Division U.S.Source: BLS
  • 5. 5 Slightly Brighter Picture in Manhattan In Manhattan, office-using employment growth has held steady around 3%, even as the number of office establishments appears to have peaked. Highlights Office Employment Growth and Number of Establishments, Manhattan (% Change in Employment, YoY and Level of Establishments) 38,000 40,000 42,000 44,000 46,000 48,000 50,000 52,000 54,000 -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total Office Establishments (#) Percentage Change in Office Employment, Manhattan (YoY) Source: BLS
  • 6. 6 Manhattan: Where the Jobs Are Employment data specifically for Manhattan, rather than New York City, are released with a 9-month lag. Through the first quarter of 2018, the bright spot on the employment front remained in the TAMI sector, where job growth (2.4% YoY) was greater than growth in either the finance or non-finance professional sectors. We infer from the aggregate New York City data (slide 3) that growth in both sectors has since slowed. Highlights Manhattan Employment by Type of Establishment (Level in 000s, Not Seasonally Adjusted) 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 TAMI Finance Non-Finance Professional Workers(thousands) Q1 2017 Q1 2018Source: BLS TAMI = Telecommunications, Software Publishers, ISPs, Search & Data Processing/Hosting, Internet Publishing/Broadcasting, Advertising/PR, Computer Systems Design and Scientific R&D. Non-Finance Professional = Insurance, Real Estate, Rental/Leasing Services, Legal, Accounting, Architectural/Engineering, Specialized Design, Management/Technical Consulting and Other Professional/Technical Services.
  • 7. 7 Business Formation Remains Sluggish The number of new business establishments in Manhattan has shrunk in the three major office- using sectors over the last year. The count of some establishment types, including professional and technical service firms as well as real estate and leasing firms, actually has contracted since 2016. Highlights Manhattan Establishments by Sector (Number of Establishments, Not Seasonally Adjusted) 8,356 10,998 20,048 8,454 11,145 20,289 8,429 11,040 20,003 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Finance and Insurance Real Estate & Rental/Leasing Professional/Technical Services Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018Source: BLS and Moody's
  • 8. 8 Income + Spending: Both Growing Local personal income tax collections (net) are up a significant 13.6% in the fiscal year through August on a year-on-year basis. Income growth is supporting growth in retail sales, as growth in sales and use taxes is up more than 7% over the same period. Highlights New York City (Local) Net Tax Collections ($ millions, Fiscal Year-to-Date) +13.6% +7.2% $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 New York City Personal Income Sales & Use DollarsMillions April 2017 - August 2017 April 2018 - August 2018 Source: NY State
  • 9. 9 Inflation Still Tame Consumer Price Inflation by Region (% Change, YoY through July/August 2018*) Growth in total consumer prices in the greater New York region is running at 2.2% over the 12 months ending August 2018, below the U.S. average of 2.7%. Contributing to the relatively slower pace of inflation is a more modest pace of price gains in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), the imputed cost of owned housing as determined from rental pricing. OER in the New York region rose by 2.4% in the twelve months ending August 2018, below the 3.3% gain nationally. Highlights 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Chicago/Gary/Kenosha Boston/Worcester/Lawrence* Dallas/FortWorth* Houston/Galveston/Brazoria* LA/Riverside/OrangeCo. Miami/FortLauderdale* NY/N.NewJersey/LongIsland Phila/Wilmington/AtlanticCity* SanFran/Oakland/SanJose* Washington,D.C./Baltimore* TotalUS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *CPI is for some regions is reported on alternate months.
  • 10. 10 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% US20-CityComp. Atlanta,GA Boston,MA Charlotte,NC Chicago,IL Dallas,TX Denver,CO LosAngeles,CA Miami,FL NewYork,NY Phoenix,AZ SanDiego,CA SanFrancisco,CA Tampa,FL Washington,DC July 2017 YoY July 2018 YoY Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Jan 2000=100, 3-mo MA (NSA) Home Price Appreciation Remains Subdued S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Single Family Home Prices (Year-over-Year % Change through July 2018) New York metro-area single-family home price growth has remained well below the increases observed throughout the rest of the country. New York metro-area single-family home prices are just 18% above recession troughs, well below the 54% advance observed across the U.S. 20-city composite index. Highlights
  • 11. 11 Broker Confidence is Steady Broker confidence rose slightly in Q2 2018 (the most recent data range), although figures are still above early 2017 levels. Highlights REBNY Commercial Broker Confidence Range = 0 to 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 REBNY Commercial Broker Confidence Index REBNY Commercial Broker Overall Confidence Index REBNY Commercial Broker Overall Confidence Index (Current) REBNY Commercial Broker Confidence Index (Future) Source: REBNY
  • 12. 12 Venture Capital Funding: NY Approximately $4.5B of venture capital funding was invested in New York state targets in Q3 2018, substantially up from the $2.2B of announced investment in Q2 2018. The average invested amount was also higher this quarter, since there were only 91 deals announced in Q3 2018 vs. the 115 deals announced in Q2 2018. Highlights NY Metro Venture Capital: Top 10 Deals in Q3 2018 (Funding in $ millions) NY-Based Target Investment Industry / Sector Peloton Interactive $550.0 Fitness WeWork $500.0 Co-Working Tillman Infrastructure $500.0 Telecom Ambatana $500.0 E-Commerce Urban Compass $400.0 E-Commerce UiPath $225.0 Enterprise Software MediaMath $225.0 Applications Software High Street Capital/ Acreage Holdings $119.0 Drug Development Enigma Technologies $95.0 Data Processing ClassPass $85.0 Fitness Source: Bloomberg
  • 13. 13 Leasing Volumes Slow Office leasing activity appears to have slowed over the last several quarters. According to CoStar data, on a trailing 12-month basis, Manhattan office leasing averaged 9.1 msf in Q3 2018, versus 10.3 msf in Q3 2017. Highlights Manhattan Quarterly Office Leasing Volume: By Class and Total (Square Feet) 4,000,000 7,000,000 10,000,000 13,000,000 16,000,000 0 3,000,000 6,000,000 9,000,000 12,000,000 Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Class A, SF Class B/C, SF Total Leasing Volume, SF (Right-Hand Side)Source: CoStar
  • 14. 14 Class A Space Remains the Favorite…For Now Tenants increasingly have favored Class A buildings when signing new leases, although the fraction of total square footage signed in Class A buildings has fallen somewhat, perhaps reflecting the fact that rent per square foot is at peak levels for the current cycle. Highlights Fraction of Manhattan Lease Activity Occurring in Class A Buildings (By Square Feet) 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Class A Leasing Activity, Fraction of Total Leasing ActivitySource: CoStar
  • 15. 15 Sublease Activity Holds Steady… Sublease volumes as a percentage of total leasing activity on a square footage basis have remained steady, ranging between 12% - 18% in the current cycle, although the trajectory has trended downward over the last several quarters. Highlights Manhattan Sublease Activity, Fraction of Total Volume (By Square Feet) 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Fraction SubleasedSource: CoStar
  • 16. 16 …Even as Sublet Space is On the Rise The fraction of space available by subletting tenants has been on the rise, even as it is still low in absolute square footage terms (7.9 msf for Class A sublet space; 3.3 msf for Class B/C sublet space.) Highlights Manhattan Space, Fraction Available by Sublet and Class (By Square Feet) 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% Q32008 Q12009 Q32009 Q12010 Q32010 Q12011 Q32011 Q12012 Q32012 Q12013 Q32013 Q12014 Q32014 Q12015 Q32015 Q12016 Q32016 Q12017 Q32017 Q12018 Q32018 Fraction of Class A Space Available by Sublet Fraction of Class B/C Space Available by Sublet Source: CoStar
  • 17. 17 Net Absorption: Now Positive After three years of negative net absorption, the first three quarters of 2018 have brought positive net absorption of both Class A and Class B/C space—a phenomenon that has not occurred over the last decade. Year-to-date, net absorption by WeWork alone has totaled almost 1 msf. Highlights Manhattan Net Absorption (millions of square feet) 3.2 -4.4 -9.0 -3.0 0.1 -1.6 -2.6 4.4 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6 4.5 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTDthroughQ32018 Class A Class B/CSource: CoStar
  • 18. 18 Q3 2018 Large Leases Tenant SF Address Type Tenant Brokerage Evercore 350,000 55 East 52nd Direct (Renewal/Expansion) Colliers Pfizer 350,000 219 East 42nd Direct (Sale/Leaseback) n/a WeWork 258,000 21 Penn Plaza/ 368 Ninth Avenue Direct (New) Newmark Bessemer Trust 239,000 1271 Avenue of the Americas Direct (Relocation) Cushman & Wakefield Convene 116,000 530 Fifth Avenue Direct (New) CBRE Spaces 111,000 405 Lexington Direct (New) JLL Aetna 106,000 161 Sixth Avenue/ One Soho Square Direct (Relocation) Cushman & Wakefield Spaces 103,000 287 Park Avenue South Direct (New) JLL Sources: The Real Deal and CoStar The number of large (100,000+ sf) leases signed in Q3 2018 has fallen, consistent with the slowing in total lease volume.
  • 19. 19 Occupied Space Starting to Rise Employment appears to lag trends in occupied space, contrary to popular belief. After several years of no growth in aggregate occupied space, the trend is changing. For the first time since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, occupied space in Manhattan is back above 520 msf. Highlights Manhattan Occupied Office Space and Office-Using Employment 850,000 887,500 925,000 962,500 1,000,000 1,037,500 1,075,000 1,112,500 1,150,000 1,187,500 490,000,000 500,000,000 510,000,000 520,000,000 530,000,000 540,000,000 550,000,000 560,000,000 570,000,000 Mar-94 Dec-95 Sep-97 Jun-99 Mar-01 Dec-02 Sep-04 Jun-06 Mar-08 Dec-09 Sep-11 Jun-13 Mar-15 Dec-16 Sep-18 WorkersSF Manhattan Occupied Space (SF) Manhattan Office Employment Two Quarters Ahead, SA Source: Savills Studley and CoStar Figures reflect imputed values for Manhattan employment. All data as of 9/21/18.
  • 20. 20 Lower Transaction Volumes While sales prices continue to rise (reaching $953/square foot in Q3 2018), activity continues to be muted, even as total transaction volume has ticked up over the last few quarters. Highlights Manhattan Office Sales Activity, Volume and Price Per Square Foot, (12-Month Average) $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Mar-02 Nov-02 Jul-03 Mar-04 Nov-04 Jul-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Mar-08 Nov-08 Jul-09 Mar-10 Nov-10 Jul-11 Mar-12 Nov-12 Jul-13 Mar-14 Nov-14 Jul-15 Mar-16 Nov-16 Jul-17 Mar-18 Billions Manhattan Office, Number of Property Transactions, Left-Hand Side Manhattan Office Price ($/SF), Left-Hand Side Manhattan Office Volume ($ Billions), Right-Hand Side Source: RCA Includes property or portfolio sales $2.5 million or greater.
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