January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
851,000 new jobs over the past three months
confirms sustained domestic momentum
U.S. employment situation: December 2015 January 8, 2016

December 2015 employment summary
• 2015 ended on a very high note, with December gaining 292,000 net new jobs and revisions in October and November resulting in a three-
month increase of 851,000 jobs. Overall, the labor market grew by nearly 2.7 million jobs over the course of 2015, down somewhat from the
3.1 million recorded in 2014 due to a moderate pause during the summer.
• With the labor pool at cyclical lows and inflation at 0.0-percent growth over the year due to the continued fall in oil prices, the rise in hourly
earnings by 2.5 percent is significantly more meaningful, which will likely lead to accelerated GDP growth from the end of 2015 and into 2016
as consumer spending elsewhere pushes up the largest component of output: personal consumption expenditures. Among industries,
earnings are increasing fastest in information (+3.8 percent), retail trade (+3.4 percent) and financial activities and construction (+2.9 percent).
• The civilian labor force grew by 466,000 people in December, the highest monthly increase recorded in a year, bringing the participation rate
to 62.6 percent for a second consecutive month of 10-basis-point increase. This jump in people looking for work has resulted in
unemployment remaining unchanged at 5.0 percent (and similarly, total unemployment at 9.9 percent) even as monthly additions maintain
momentum.
• After months of instability and a slowdown, professional and business services (PBS) returned to form in December as well as with revisions
for October, adding 188,000 jobs over the past three months. The diversity of growth characteristic of recent quarters means that this
represented only 22.1 percent of new jobs, however. Information in particular posted a notable pick-up of 16,000 jobs, while financial activities
saw a third consecutive month of double-digit growth.
• Although markets across the country are growing at faster rates, the Bay Area, Texas (excluding Houston) and mid-sized markets in the South
and West continue to be leaders. Silicon Valley’s 12-month change totaled 5.1 percent, the highest of any JLL-tracked market, while Austin,
Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Portland, Salt Lake City and Tampa are just some of the secondary and tertiary markets that are outperforming
their peers on a consistent basis. This has been reflected in steady net absorption: these six geographies registered occupancy growth of
more than 5.9 million square feet in 2015, equivalent to 10.8 percent of national net absorption.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

December 2015 labor market at a glance
+292,000
(63 consecutive months
of growth)
1-month net change
+2,650,000
(+1.9% y-o-y)
12-month change
+796,000
10-year average annual growth
5.0%
Unemployment rate
-60bp
12-month change in unemployment
7.0%
10-year average unemployment
5,383,000
(+11.0% y-o-y)
Job openings
5,137,000
(+0.6% y-o-y)
Hires
2,779,000
(+1.9% y-o-y)
Quits

2015 ended on a high note, with upward revisions and 292,000
new jobs in December for a 3-month total of 851,000 jobs
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
201,000
266,000
119,000
221,000
260,000
245,000
223,000
153,000
145,000
307,000
252,000
292,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
1-monthnetchange
4

A 466,000-person increase in the civilian labor force kept
unemployment at 5.0 percent despite strong job creation
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
5

Job openings continue to hover around 5.4 million, with
construction and leisure posting largest monthly increases
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jobopenings(thousands)

0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Consumerconfidenceindex
Although consumer confidence has been volatile, further
improvements in the labor market are creating upward
momentum
7

As gas prices continue to tumble, hourly wage growth of 2.5
percent has become significantly more meaningful
8
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
12-month%change
Hourly wage growth CPI growth

-8.0
-6.0
-2.4
1.4
2.4
4.3
8.0
11.0
11.0
14.0
16.0
17.0
23.1
29.0
34.4
45.0
52.6
59.0
73.0
-20 0 20 40 60 80
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Other services
Financial activities
Nondurable goods
Information
Government
Transportation and warehousing
Leisure and hospitality
Temporary help services
Construction
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
1-month net change (thousands)
PBS’ 73,000-job increase in December is a return to form after
a prolonged slowdown earlier in the year
9
PBS
Education and health
Construction
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
60.6 percent of
monthly
growth.

-131.0
-16.0
11.2
26.9
30.0
46.0
50.0
65.4
68.0
94.2
94.5
99.0
147.0
263.0
274.0
419.0
591.9
605.0
655.0
-200 0 200 400 600 800
Mining and logging
Durable goods
Utilities
Motor vehicles and parts
Manufacturing
Nondurable goods
Information
Wholesale trade
Other services
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Government
Construction
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Education and health services
12-month net change (thousands)
Education and health
PBS
Retail trade
Manufacturing
All other jobs
Surge in PBS brings annual growth close to education and
health; mining and logging remains the major outlier
10
Core subsectors added 80.4 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.

0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Unemploymentrate(%)
Another month of 2.5 percent unemployment for bachelor’s
degree holders strengthens notion of talent shortage
11

Office-using growth totaled 792,000 jobs over the course of
2015, or 30 percent of national gains
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
12

At 5.9 percent, tech continues to grow more than triple the
national average, while energy drops to -6.6 percent
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through October 2015.
13
12-month%change(jobs)

Tech’s growth, while steady, has spread out geographically due
to a shortage of workers in industry hubs, while energy is at the
opposite spectrum Year-on-year percent employment growth
14

Heading into 2016, initial claims have begun to bottom out at
around 270,000 per week
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
15
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
The rates of hires and quits have remained remarkably steady in
late 2015 at 3.6 and 1.9 percent, respectively

Silicon Valley has surpassed the 5.0-percent mark, while mid-
sized Southern and Western powerhouses continue to grow
17
San
Francisco
4.1%
Atlanta
3.4%
Fort
Lauderdale
3.3%
Charlotte
3.3%
Austin
3.9%
Salt Lake
City
3.5%
Silicon Valley
5.1%
Portland
3.5%

0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.7%
1.8%
2.0%
2.3%
2.5%
2.9%
3.0%
3.4%
4.1%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Houston
Chicago
Philadelphia
Los Angeles
Boston
Washington, DC
South Florida
New York
Seattle
Dallas
Atlanta
San Francisco
12-month % change
Most major markets have exceeded the 2.0-percent threshold,
particularly industry hubs and Sun Belt geographies
18

The increase in people looking for work also kept total
unemployment unchanged at 9.9 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
19

The labor force participation rate rose by 10bp in December to
62.6 percent, but is still well below historic norms
20
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)

©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
Or, find more employment, business and real estate research at jll.com.
>>> Click here to check it out.

January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook

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