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Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 1
Lecture Notes for Simple Linear Regression
Problem Definition: Midwest Insurance wants to develop a
model able to predict sales
according to time with the company.
Results for: MIDWEST.MTW
Data Display
Row Sales Years with Midwest xy y2 x2
1 487 3 1461 237169 9
2 445 5 2225 198025 25
3 272 2 544 73984 4
4 641 8 5128 410881 64
5 187 2 374 34969 4
6 440 6 2640 193600 36
7 346 7 2422 119716 49
8 238 1 238 56644 1
9 312 4 1248 97344 16
10 269 2 538 72361 4
11 655 9 5895 429025 81
12 563 6 3378 316969 36
2
2
=329
2
= 3025
2
= 23571025
Scatterplot of Midwest Data
Graphs>Scatterplot
Years with Midwest
S
a
le
s
9876543210
700
600
500
400
300
200
Scatterplot of Sales vs Years with Midwest
Evaluate the bivariate graph to determine whether a linear
relationship exists and the
nature of the relationship. What happens to y as x increases?
What type of relationship do
you see?
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 2
Dialog box for developing correlation coefficient
Explore Linearity of Relationship for significance using t
distribution
Pearson Product Moment
Correlation Coefficient
Stat>Basic Stat>Correlation
Correlations: Sales, Years with Midwest – Minitab readout
Pearson correlation of Sales and Years with Midwest = 0.833
P-Value = 0.001
Formula for computing correlation coefficient
yynxxn
yxxyn
r
Hypothesis for t test for significant correlation
Decision Rule: Pvalue and critical ratio/critical value technique
Critical Ratio of t
t=
r
r
n
1
2
2
Conclusion:
Interpretation:
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 3
Simple linear regression assumes that the relationship between
the dependent, y
and independent variable, x can be approximated by a straight
line.
Population or Deterministic Model – For each x there is an
exact value for y.
y - value of independent variable
(x) - value of independent variable
- Value of population y intercept
- Slope of population regression line
- Epsilon represents the difference between y and y’. Epsilon
also accounts for the independent
variables that affect y but are not in the model. (The difference
between Y observed and y
predicted).
STAT>Regression>Fitted Line Plot
Least squares method is a mathematical
technique that results in a regression
equation with the smallest SSE. Completing
the least squares techniques provides the
values for b0 and b1, which minimizes the
sum of the squared differences between
observed and predicted values. Any values
other than those determined by the least
squares method result in greater sum of
squared differences than those determined
by the least squares method.
Years with Midwest
S
a
le
s
9876543210
700
600
500
400
300
200
S 92.1055
R-Sq 69.3%
R-Sq(adj) 66.2%
Fitted Line Plot
Sales = 175.8 + 49.91 Years with Midwest
Least Squares Regression Properties
1. The sum of the residuals from the least squares regression
line is 0. The total
underprediction by the regression model is exactly offset by the
total
overprediction. The probability distribution of is normal
2. The sum of the squared residuals is a minimum (residuals are
error
-y’)
2
3. The simple regression line always passes through the mean of
the y variable and
the mean of the x variable.
4. The least squares coefficients b0 and b1 are unbiased
estimators of their
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 4
Regression Dialog
Box
Commands for
Regression: Enter
data into Minitab
worksheet
STAT>Regression>
Regression
Graphs Dialog Box
Graphs> NP Plot of
residuals, Residuals
vs Fits, go to
bottom of dialog
box place cursor in
box Residuals vs
the variables, and
select x variable so
it shows in box) hit
OK to return to
original window
OLS Ordinary Least Squares - Least squares method of graphing
line that produces the
smallest possible sum of squared residuals. Minimizes the
squared vertical deviations between
the regression line and the observed values of Y.
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 5
Results Dialog Box
Select boxes as
shown
NOTE: The following output is the result of commands
demonstrated in the screen
captures previously presented in this handout.
Regression Analysis: Sales versus YearswMidwest
Analysis of Variance
Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value
Regression 1 191601 191601 22.59 0.001
YearswMidwest 1 191601 191601 22.59 0.001
Error 10 84834 8483
Lack-of-Fit 7 72617 10374 2.55 0.238
Pure Error 3 12217 4072
Total 11 276435
Model Summary
S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)
92.1055 69.31% 66.24% 57.83%
Coefficients
Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF
Constant 175.8 55.0 3.20 0.010
YearswMidwest 49.9 10.5 4.75 0.001 1.00
Regression Equation
Sales = 175.8 + 49.9 YearswMidwest
Fits and Diagnostics for Unusual Observations
Obs Sales Fit Resid Std Resid
7 346.0 525.2 -179.2 -2.12 R
R Large residual
Durbin-Watson Statistic
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 1.45254
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 6
Computing the least square regression equation with calculator:
Optional Equations
Slope of line =
22
1
xxn
yxxyn
b
Intercept =
n
x
b
n
y
bo 1
Compute b1 and b0 in the area provided
Stat>Regression>Regression>
Predict>Type 7 for years to
predict fit value of y (sales)
The relevant range or
experimental region - Make
predictions only for values that fall
within the relevant range of the
independent variable. This range
consists of all values that fall
between the smallest x and the
largest x in the data used to
compute the regression model.
Predict: Options
Use regression equation to compute y when x=7:
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 7
Prediction for Sales
Regression Equation
Sales = 175.8 + 49.9 YearswMidwest
Variable Setting
YearswMidwest 7
Fit SE Fit 95% CI 95% PI
525.199 36.7573 (443.299, 607.100) (304.237, 746.162)
Confidence Interval –We are 95% confident the population
average for a given value for x=7 will
be within this interval
(443.299, 607.100)
Prediction Interval – Determines the likelihood that a randomly
selected individual value for Y
given a value for x = 7 will be within the interval. (304.237,
746.162) with 95% confidence.
Regression Assumptions: Read definition of residuals
Assumption 1: The mean of the distribution of y values for a
given value of x is equal to 0.
Each error term has a 50%percent chance if being either
positive or negative.
Assumption 2: Constant
variance assumption
Residual vs. Fitted values
assumes that the distribution of all
possible y observed values for
each value of x have constant
variances (Homoscedasticity). One
way to satisfy this assumption is to
graph residuals on y and fits
(predicted y for given values of x)
on x as in the next plot. You can
instruct Minitab to develop the plot
by selecting the graph command
when you are performing simple
regression.
Stat>Regression>Graphs>Select
Residual vs Fits.
Fitted Value
R
e
s
id
u
a
l
600500400300200
200
100
0
-100
-200
Residuals Versus the Fitted Values
(response is Sales)
Graph analysis. Examine the graph for patterns about the
mean line 0.0. If the dots are not randomly distributed above
and below the line the homoscedasticity assumption is
violated. You can instruct Minitab to develop the plot by
selecting the graph command when you are performing
simple regression. Connect the dots in sequence as you
move from left to right across x axis. Minitab provides an
alert when eight consecutive dots fall above or below 0.
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 8
Graph analysis. Residual versus
the Variables is used to examine
the effect the properties of a
specific variable Examine the
graph for patterns about the mean
line 0.0. If the dots are not
randomly distributed above and
below the line the
homoscedasticity assumption is
violated. You can instruct Minitab
to develop the plot by selecting the
graph command when you are
performing simple regression.
Connect the dots in sequence as
you move from left to right across x
axis. Minitab provides an alert
when eight consecutive dots fall
above or below 0.
9876543210
200
100
0
-100
-200
Years W Midwest
R
e
s
id
u
a
l
Residuals Versus Years W Midwest
(response is Sales)
Assumption 3: Error
distributions of possible y
values are normal for each value
of x. To satisfy this assumption
you have Minitab graph an NP Plot
of residuals. You can instruct
Minitab to develop the plot by
selecting the graph command
when you are performing simple
regression.
Graph analysis: The residual
values cluster tightly about the line
indicating the residuals for each
value of x are normally distributed.
Residual
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
2001000-100-200
99
95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1
Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals
(response is Sales)
Assumption 4: Independence of errors. Residuals collected in
one time period cannot
influence residuals collected in another time period. Durbin
Watson is used to detect
autocorrelation. We do not want patterns of positive error terms
followed in time by other positive
error terms or patterns of negative error terms followed by other
negative error terms. Df = P and
n. P is the number of independent variables (x’s) in the
equation.
Durbin Watson test for autocorrelation DW Table Page 810
H0: Errors are nonautocorrelated
H1: Errors are autocorrelated
DW< 2 suggests positive autocorrelation
DW≈ 2 suggests no autocorrelation
DW> 2 suggests negative autocorrelation
Compare value to DW located below Minitab readout.
Critical range = 1.08 – 1.36 from DW table not in this text
Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.45254
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 9
Test Model for Significance:
The standard error of the estimate- The spread or scatter of the
observed y values about the
regression line. Syx is measured in the same units as the
predicted value for y. This value is the
standard deviation of the population of error terms or residuals.
The variance of the population is
MSE from the ANOVA table. The least squares method
produces the b0 and b1 estimate that
-y’)
2
.
The standard error is the square root of MSE or the square root
of SSE/n-k-1. Both of these
values are derived from the ANOVA table. SSE is the amount of
variability unexplained by the
independent variable in the model.
Otherwise stated, the standard error of the estimate measures
the dispersion of the dependant
variable about its mean value at each value of the dependent
variable in the original units of the
dependant variable.
The Coefficient of Simple Determination (R-sq in Minitab) is a
percentage measure of how
much variability (squared distance between (y-‘y) that was
explained by the independent variable
in the regression model. Computed as 1-(SSE/SST) or SSR/SST.
Note the square root of r-squared is called the correlation
coefficient and measures the strength
of the linear relationship between x and y.
SSR = The sum of squares residual – the amount of variation
explained by the independent
variable.
SSE = Sum of squares of error – the amount of variation
unexplained by the independent
variable.
Testing the validity of the regression model- p is the number of
categories of independent
variables p is years with midwest in the model.
F test for slope num df = p and denominator df = n-p-1 (p is
number of categories of
predictor variables in equation).
2
=0 The model explains 0% of variability in y
2
T – Test for Slope Used to determine if there is a significant
relationship between y and x.
Rejection of the null indicates a significant relationship. Failure
to reject means the model has no
predictive value or x contributes to the model. df = n-p-1
H0
Confidence Interval of the Slope (does β1=0 lie within the
interval?)
The true slope is estimated with 95% confidence to lie within
the interval
b1± tn-p-1 Sb1. If the interval contains zero there is not linear
relationship between the variables.
sb =
n
x
x
S yx
2
2
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 10
Simple Regression Study Guide
Not Assigned…Use as a guide for preparing for final exam
Store ID
Shelf Space Allocated
to Pet Food
=X
Weekly Pet Food Sales
in Hundreds of Dollars
=Y
1 5 1.6
2 5 2.2
3 5 1.4
4 10 1.9
5 10 2.4
6 10 2.6
7 15 2.3
8 15 2.7
9 15 2.8
10 20 2.6
11 20 2.9
12 20 3.1
13 25 3.3
14 25 3.5
15 25 3.4
Review the example study provided in this handout to become
familiar with Minitab
commands and statistical testing needed to complete the Aslin
Finch pet food problem.
Research Objective: The marketing manager of Aslin Finch
would like to determine the
effect of shelf space on the weekly sales of pet food. A random
sample of 15 stores is
selected with the following results. Set alpha at .01.
Practice by entering the data into Minitab and analyzing the
model. When you can address
each of the “Label” items for multiple regression you are ready
to take the final. Simple
regression is used to build your confidence and because the data
is limited and therefore
easier to study. The final exam is largely based on multiple
regression but some of the
calculations are required. These calculations will be identified
during lecture.
Label: Problem Definition (why are you doing this analysis?)
Begin with Problem Definition
Label: Scatterplot
Use Minitab Scatterplot with description of relationship
between x and y. Describe scatterplot to
determine whether positive or negative and explain how you
made this determination in your
graph description? Neither?
Label: Correlation Coefficient
Hypothesis test of correlation coefficient to determine if a
linear relationship exists between Feet
of Shelf Space and Weekly Pet Food Sales– Use six step process
Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter
2016 Page 11
Label: Regression Equation (show only the equation not the
entire table or output)
Use Minitab to develop the regression equation-In your report,
paste the Minitab output of
regression equation and define regression coefficients b0 and b1
as learned during lecture.
bo = and is defined as…
b1= and is defined as….
Be sure to include the quantitative assessment of each in terms
of pet food sales.
Label: Significance Testing (Regression Coefficient) Is x a
significant predictor of y?
T test for significance of regression coefficient Use six step
process in interpretation step discuss
average amount of change in y for one unit change in x.
Label: Significance Testing (ANOVA) What percentage of error
or variation is …
F Test to test R-sqd – Use six step process and in interpretation
step discusses percentage of
variability in y explained by x. Use six step process
Label: Satisfying Regression Assumptions (Normality and
constant variance)
Minitab plots to include in report: Size graphs to fit neatly
within report and place each description
with the graph you are discussing.
NP Plot for residuals -Minitab graph with description
addressing to assumption(s)
Residuals vs. Fits-Minitab graph with description addressing to
assumption(s)
Residuals and x variable-Minitab graph with description
addressing to assumption(s)
Graphical analyses must describe residuals plotted on graphs.
Each graph must speak to
the assumption and how the graphed residuals support or violate
the assumption.
Label: Confidence Interval for Regression Coefficient
Develop confidence interval for regression coefficient and
interpret –Calculations to be done by
hand and typed neatly onto report. Discuss whether 0 lies in
interval and interpret interval in
terms of pet food sales and shelf space.
Label: Prediction and Confidence Interval for Fit value of Y
Use Minitab to develop prediction interval and confidence
interval for y for a value of x you select
and enter into Minitab – Interpret both intervals as they relate
to y
Part A
Three of the most important things I would like a manager to
know about me are as follows. I would like for him/her to know
that I am capable of fulfilling the duties that are required to
complete the job. I would also like them to know that I am the
person they are looking for because I have the skills that will
make their company grow and therefore I am the right person
for the job. One more important detail that cannot be left out
would be that I am a responsible and consider my actions I take
in the work environment.
These three things are very important for me. I need to
know that the employer is not just choosing just “another
candidate’’. By letting the employer know my skills and my
responsibility there is a better chance of getting the job. I am a
very responsible person and that is one of my pet peas.
If I had an opportunity of telling my story in an elevator
trip I would be as clearly as possible. I would start out by
letting him/her know that I am a hard worker and don’t give up
on the first try. I have certain goals in life and I am currently
looking forward in advancing my career by working for a
company that will consider my skills and talent. This elevator
speech can determine whether I can get a job at his/her
company. The speech could either turn out a fatal or success.
Part B
Reflective practice is when I think about the things I have done
and then figuring out what I did and what I can do to improve
things the next time around. I could apply this to Everyday
work by considering my actions taken. I can take reflective
practice in a way of improving who I am and make sure I learn
from my mistakes. Reflective practice can have a lot of
determination when it comes to preparing for a presentation.
For example if something did not go the way you planned it to
be, you can reflect back and think what you can do better next
time. Creating an effective, career-related online presence on
social media can be daunting. You do not want employers to
look at negative feedback. I believe you should clean up your
identity to avoid any misunderstandings.
A
I have always been a shy boy ever since I was a little boy. I
don’t know why it has been like that ever since. This I could
say that has effected the way I present my self in front of
others. I would summarize my life experiences as harsh, timid,
but have been able to surpass any challenge. These experiences
have shaped me as a professional to learn that in life if you
want to get something done you have to learn to overcome your
fears. You are the only one who will be able to do it and no one
else. It has shaped me as a university student to become a better
learner and have learned that presentation will always be a part
in life. In my previous experiences I have learned that when
making informal presentations it is more easy and you don’t
necessary have to plan things out. In a formal presentation like
in an interview it is more necessary to be more careful in every
aspect of the presentation.
B
JOSUE E RODRIGUEZ T
1121 NE 141 St Miami Florida 33161
[email protected]
Cell/(305)801-9001
Summary of Qualifications
To obtain a position with a dynamic company that will allow
education, interpersonal skills, and work experienced to be
maximized. Computer literate and internet savvy. Excellent
professional and communication skills. Superior attention to
detail, calm under pressure, proactive and confident.
Outstanding ability to develop and maintain constructive and
cooperative working relations. Compose correspondence and
accurate reports with little guidance and direction.
Communicate effectively in English and Spanish. Follow and
give oral and written directions. Work independently with
minimum of supervision. Interpret, apply and initiate policies
and procedures. Maintain cooperative working relationships
with individuals at all levels of the organization. Demonstrate
sensitivity to and respect for, a diverse population.
Professional Experience
Arlen Beach Condominium, Miami Florida; April 2015- Present:
Front Desk Representative
Welcomed visitors by greeting them in person or on the
telephone, answering or referring inquiries. Answered
incoming telephone calls, collected fees and other
miscellaneous income for the association. Process mail orders-
handled residents requests and concerns. When busy I helped
the valet with customers luggage. Distribute, and kept a file of
customers mail orders. Made sure the rules of the condominium
were enforced but at the same time doing things politely and in
an ordely fashion. Kept my surrounding and area neat and clean.
Sevilla Hotel, El Salvador Usulutan; July 2012-February 2014
Hotel front desk agent
Greet, register, and assign rooms to guest. Issue room key and
familiarize guests with the services the hotel has to offer. I
answered all incoming telephone calls efficiently and accurately
according to standards. I made and confirmed reservations
according to Hotel Sevilla standards and utilized rooms and
merchandising techniques. I was the key and communication
link. Communicated between co-workers, management and other
departments. I acted as the bell person in greeting guests and
assisted guests in the bell persons absence or if the bell person
is otherwise occupied. Answered inquiries pertaining to hotel
services; registration of guests; and shopping, dining,
entertainment, and travel directions. Make restaurant,
transportation, or entertainment reservations, and arrange for
other guest requests. Post charges such as room, massage, or
telephone, to guests folios. I collected payments and made
change for guests. Performed s daily bucket check to ensure that
all guests information was up to date and accurate. Followed
security and safety standards at all times. Kept familiar with
current rates, packages, and promotions. Attended all mandatory
staff meetings and training sessions. Complied with the drug
free workplace policy.
US Airways, El Salvador San Salvador: June 2010-May 2012
Reservations/Sales CSR
A call center service representative who took incoming calls
from airline customers. Dealt with complaints, helped
passengers establish itineraries, persuaded customers into
buying the flight they had booked, offering the company’s
credit in exchange for a special discount that day. Worked with
other airlines to get the best price for their needs, or answer
general questions in regards to travel. Boosted the companies
revenue by asking clients if they would need any hotel, car
rental, or other special needs during their trip. Transferred
customers calls, looked up information on the computer system
and documented calls.
Wing stop corp, Alexandria, VA: October 2004-February 2009
Shift Manager
Involved with all aspects of customer service and order entry
including solving problems, answering questions and working
with customers to ensure fantastic service. Demonstrated the
ability to prioritized multiple tasks Accustomed to fast-paced,
high-pressured positions,opened/ closed stored,did financial
paperwork at the end of the shift
Pharmerica, Beltsville, MD: January 2009-February 2010
Pharmacy Technician
Accustomed to fast- paced, high-pressured positions
Demonstrated the ability to prioritized multiple tasks Met
deadlines and provided quality service Answered calls, entered
data, faxed, typed, and made outbound follow up calls Involved
with all aspects of customer service and order entry including
solving problems, answering questions and working with
customers to ensure fantastic service.
All State Insurance, Alexandria VA: August 2006-January-2009
Sales Agent
Conducted telephone marketing to generate qualified sales lead.
Developed deal tracking tools to assist sales persons in win-loss
analysis. Produced monthly mailers and email messages to
solicit potential clients. Organized weekly operating meetings
with other sales assistants. Responsible for training new sales
assistants upon hiring
EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND
Everest University Online-Associates Degree-Business
Administration
Florida Technical College; currently taking classes for
Associates Degree in Network Administration/wireless
technology
TOPICS
PRESENTATION OUTLINEThe outline should indicate the
flow and content for your anticipated presentation.Incorporate
an introduction of yourself, and link your background,
experience, goals, and education to the topic. Imagine that the
audience has not met you or that they do not know you very
well. Assume that your own strengths and abilities, including
your university studies, will be key and important to the success
of your proposal for the project. Be sure the outline reflects
solid organization and process.In Unit 4, you will give a final
presentation based on this outline, so be sure to provide enough
information for future use. Therefore, use a sentence outline
format rather than simply jotting down one- or two-word
topics.After you complete the outline, add a paragraph or two
sharing your initial thought process for determining visual
support for your presentation. Consider color choice, font
choice, use of white space, layout, and so on. Refer to
intellipath, unit resources, and your assigned readings for
additional ideas.
*
CHOOSING YOUR TOPIC
A discipline-related topic in which you propose a small project
or professional action to an audience of midlevel executives.
For Example:BusinessITCriminal JusticeAnyChanging a
procedureUpdating softwareNew security proceduresAdopt an
official charityNew personnel benefitsUpgrading
equipmentUpdating policiesEmployer support of
educationEmployee handbookChanging providersAdding new
equipmentOther changes
Brainstorming startersHow would you fix a problem at a former
or current employer?What would your ideal workplace look
like?Which charity deserves support from companies in your
area?How should an employer support employee education?
Assignment clarification
SPEAKER
You: A new hire with a great idea to make your workplace
better
YOUR AUDIENCE
Midlevel managers at your new workplace
YOUR TOPIC
A proposal related to your AIU study discipline/career, for
example:
BUSINESS: Change of policy or new procedure
IT: New equipment or software
CJ: Updated security or changes to department
policies
Your audience is a group of mid-level managers, whom you
work for. You may be a recent hire, because some of them don't
know you very well yet.
Your presentation is a proposal to that group of managers for
something related to your study discipline here at AIU. So, if
you are studying business, you might be proposing a new
handbook. If you are studying IT, perhaps a change in
equipment or software. Criminal justice students might propose
security changes or new department policies.
You should give some information about your
work/career/school background to show why you are the right
person to propose/carry out the project.
*
THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT…An elevator speechA job
interviewReally about you
The personal/career/background information is there to support
the PROPOSALIt should be less than 3 minutes of your total
speech time (10-12 minutes)
*
Introduction
Your name and welcome
Your background, experience, goals and education
Preview of project/proposal
Main Point 1
Details about the project/proposal (with sub-points)
Evidence to support project/proposal (with sub-points)
Main Point 2
Why this particular project/proposal is the best option (with
sub-points)
How this project/proposal will be put into effect (with sub-
points)
Main Point 3
Why you are the person to accomplish the project/proposal (link
to intro)
How your skills are essential/a perfect fit/ideal in this situation
Conclusion
Review of the project/proposal
Thank your audience for their attention
Call to action
Recommended Format
*
Good afternoon, everyone!
Welcome ! I am NAME and it’s great to be here.
I am currently pursing an Associates Degree at American
Intercontinental University. I have been a stay at home mom
for many years but am excited about getting out into the
workforce. I effectively and efficiently have managed a busy
household. I have found that consistent rules and guidelines are
important and essential. The same can be said for business.
I am proposing that this company have a written employee
handbook.
Our company policies should be clearly stated.
These policies should include general working hours, company
rules and regulations (dress code, safety regulations, how to
interact with clients, etc).
It should also include how vacation time is earned; policies on
sick leave, personal days and paid holidays; overtime and
maternity policies. Health and medical benefits as well as
pension plans and other fringe benefits should be explained.
Salary and performance reviews should be explained here and
any other rules and regulations that the company has to date.
It’s imperative that we explain that employment with the
company is “at will”. We need to state clearly that employment
here can be terminated at any time without cause.
It is important to be clear, concise and direct.
We do not want to leave any room for confusion. We need to
avoid errors to protect against claims of wrongful discharge.
Using the words “permanent employee” should not occur
anywhere in the handbook. Also, we need to avoid any language
that signifies termination can only be “for cause”.
There will be verbal promises or similar assurances of
continued employment. It is also important that we avoid
language that implies that any employee making it through the
introductory or probationary period is less vulnerable to
termination.
To save money we can write the handbook ourselves and have
our attorney review it. When our employees receive their copy,
they will sign for it. This acknowledges that they have received
it. This will help to protect against claims that the employee
was not aware of our policies and rules.
I am the right person to get this handbook written and
distributed.
As I stated earlier, I have been effectively and efficiently
running a household with three active teenagers and a
hardworking husband.
I am familiar with organization and the importance of rules.
Having everything in black and white leaves no room for
misunderstanding and questions can be easily answered.
I am highly organized and like things to be streamlined. Having
clear guidelines for everyone makes for less confusion. Less
confusion makes happier and more productive employees.
In conclusion, I believe that employee handbooks are essential
to our company.
Again, I believe that handbooks will make our rules and
policies clear to everyone. In addition, they will protect us
against unnecessary lawsuits in many instances.
Thank you taking the time to listen to my proposal today and I
hope you value how important the addition of an employee
handbook is to our company.
Let’s all work together to write this handbook and avoid any
confusion about our wonderful workplace!
I am NAME, my primary background was originally in the
printing industry; which lead me into the manufacturing setting;
and then finally, I shifted into the transportation industry.I am
currently an independent contractor working with a local
courier service; according the government, I am self-
employed.Prior from switching over from manufacturing to my
current industry, I felt I needed to make a change, that what I
was doing was not working anymore. (Jobs are continuously
being replaced by technology).I have found a place where I like
to work. I actually am really happy where I am now and now I
wish to continue in the current industry.Affordable Care
ActBecause of the Affordable Care Act, there is a new tax
penalty fee that has been put in place for those without medical
insurance.2014 tax penalties (ACA Individual Mandate):$95.00
for an adult to go without coverage; $57.50 for a child to go
without coverage;Which can be up to $285 for a
familyAdditionally, a tax penalty may be 1% of total income;
the penalty is whichever is greater.2015 tax penalties (ACA
Individual Mandate):$325.00 for an adult to go without
coverage; $162.50 for a child to go without coverage;Which can
be up to $975 for a familyAdditionally, a tax penalty may be 2%
of total income; the penalty is whichever is
greater.“Affordable” insurance premiums are not
affordable.Many companies out there today advertise that they
have “affordable” insurance plans available. I have recently
looked for insurance plans available in my area and I found that
most plans available are over $150.00. To me, this not an
affordable cost.The average cost per month can range from
$131.00 to 499.00 depending on age (eHealth Price Index,
n.d.);Or an average cost of $191 to $452, depending on what
sate you live in (eHealth Price Index, n.d.).Your contractors
will look for work elsewhere.Because of the high insurance
premiums, finding another company that will provide health
insurance would be ideal to those who wish to avoid the
penalty.For those who wish to remain in the transportation
industry, there are other courier jobs out there that will hire
people on as an employee rather than a contractor.I have done
my research locally; these other courier jobs do actually give
their employees benefits.Sure others might join this company, it
is easier to get into the industry when do not have experience as
a contractor; but once one has enough experience that another
company might recognize, then you would be out a contractor.I
believe it would be beneficial to the company and the
contractors if medical insurance was available.I believe this
because of ACA and the tax penalty that has been put in place;I
believe this because medical insurance costs, just cost too
much;I believe this because I know there are contractors that
are not happy, and will look elsewhere for work.I realize that
that it is not conventional to provide the benefits to contractors,
but with the new laws put in place, this company needs to adapt.

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Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter .docx

  • 1. Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 1 Lecture Notes for Simple Linear Regression Problem Definition: Midwest Insurance wants to develop a model able to predict sales according to time with the company. Results for: MIDWEST.MTW Data Display Row Sales Years with Midwest xy y2 x2 1 487 3 1461 237169 9 2 445 5 2225 198025 25 3 272 2 544 73984 4 4 641 8 5128 410881 64 5 187 2 374 34969 4 6 440 6 2640 193600 36 7 346 7 2422 119716 49 8 238 1 238 56644 1
  • 2. 9 312 4 1248 97344 16 10 269 2 538 72361 4 11 655 9 5895 429025 81 12 563 6 3378 316969 36 2 2 =329 2 = 3025 2 = 23571025 Scatterplot of Midwest Data Graphs>Scatterplot Years with Midwest S a le s
  • 3. 9876543210 700 600 500 400 300 200 Scatterplot of Sales vs Years with Midwest Evaluate the bivariate graph to determine whether a linear relationship exists and the nature of the relationship. What happens to y as x increases? What type of relationship do you see? Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 2 Dialog box for developing correlation coefficient Explore Linearity of Relationship for significance using t distribution
  • 4. Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient Stat>Basic Stat>Correlation Correlations: Sales, Years with Midwest – Minitab readout Pearson correlation of Sales and Years with Midwest = 0.833 P-Value = 0.001 Formula for computing correlation coefficient yynxxn yxxyn r Hypothesis for t test for significant correlation
  • 5. Decision Rule: Pvalue and critical ratio/critical value technique Critical Ratio of t t= r r n 1 2 2 Conclusion: Interpretation: Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 3 Simple linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent, y and independent variable, x can be approximated by a straight line.
  • 6. Population or Deterministic Model – For each x there is an exact value for y. y - value of independent variable (x) - value of independent variable - Value of population y intercept - Slope of population regression line - Epsilon represents the difference between y and y’. Epsilon also accounts for the independent variables that affect y but are not in the model. (The difference between Y observed and y predicted). STAT>Regression>Fitted Line Plot Least squares method is a mathematical technique that results in a regression equation with the smallest SSE. Completing the least squares techniques provides the values for b0 and b1, which minimizes the sum of the squared differences between observed and predicted values. Any values other than those determined by the least squares method result in greater sum of squared differences than those determined by the least squares method. Years with Midwest
  • 7. S a le s 9876543210 700 600 500 400 300 200 S 92.1055 R-Sq 69.3% R-Sq(adj) 66.2% Fitted Line Plot Sales = 175.8 + 49.91 Years with Midwest Least Squares Regression Properties 1. The sum of the residuals from the least squares regression line is 0. The total
  • 8. underprediction by the regression model is exactly offset by the total overprediction. The probability distribution of is normal 2. The sum of the squared residuals is a minimum (residuals are error -y’) 2 3. The simple regression line always passes through the mean of the y variable and the mean of the x variable. 4. The least squares coefficients b0 and b1 are unbiased estimators of their Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 4 Regression Dialog Box
  • 9. Commands for Regression: Enter data into Minitab worksheet STAT>Regression> Regression Graphs Dialog Box Graphs> NP Plot of residuals, Residuals vs Fits, go to bottom of dialog box place cursor in box Residuals vs the variables, and select x variable so it shows in box) hit OK to return to original window OLS Ordinary Least Squares - Least squares method of graphing line that produces the smallest possible sum of squared residuals. Minimizes the squared vertical deviations between the regression line and the observed values of Y.
  • 10. Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 5 Results Dialog Box Select boxes as shown NOTE: The following output is the result of commands demonstrated in the screen captures previously presented in this handout. Regression Analysis: Sales versus YearswMidwest Analysis of Variance Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value Regression 1 191601 191601 22.59 0.001 YearswMidwest 1 191601 191601 22.59 0.001 Error 10 84834 8483 Lack-of-Fit 7 72617 10374 2.55 0.238 Pure Error 3 12217 4072 Total 11 276435
  • 11. Model Summary S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred) 92.1055 69.31% 66.24% 57.83% Coefficients Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF Constant 175.8 55.0 3.20 0.010 YearswMidwest 49.9 10.5 4.75 0.001 1.00 Regression Equation Sales = 175.8 + 49.9 YearswMidwest Fits and Diagnostics for Unusual Observations Obs Sales Fit Resid Std Resid 7 346.0 525.2 -179.2 -2.12 R R Large residual Durbin-Watson Statistic
  • 12. Durbin-Watson Statistic = 1.45254 Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 6 Computing the least square regression equation with calculator: Optional Equations Slope of line = 22 1 xxn yxxyn b Intercept =
  • 13. n x b n y bo 1 Compute b1 and b0 in the area provided Stat>Regression>Regression> Predict>Type 7 for years to predict fit value of y (sales) The relevant range or
  • 14. experimental region - Make predictions only for values that fall within the relevant range of the independent variable. This range consists of all values that fall between the smallest x and the largest x in the data used to compute the regression model. Predict: Options Use regression equation to compute y when x=7: Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 7 Prediction for Sales Regression Equation Sales = 175.8 + 49.9 YearswMidwest
  • 15. Variable Setting YearswMidwest 7 Fit SE Fit 95% CI 95% PI 525.199 36.7573 (443.299, 607.100) (304.237, 746.162) Confidence Interval –We are 95% confident the population average for a given value for x=7 will be within this interval (443.299, 607.100) Prediction Interval – Determines the likelihood that a randomly selected individual value for Y given a value for x = 7 will be within the interval. (304.237, 746.162) with 95% confidence. Regression Assumptions: Read definition of residuals Assumption 1: The mean of the distribution of y values for a given value of x is equal to 0. Each error term has a 50%percent chance if being either positive or negative. Assumption 2: Constant variance assumption Residual vs. Fitted values assumes that the distribution of all possible y observed values for each value of x have constant variances (Homoscedasticity). One
  • 16. way to satisfy this assumption is to graph residuals on y and fits (predicted y for given values of x) on x as in the next plot. You can instruct Minitab to develop the plot by selecting the graph command when you are performing simple regression. Stat>Regression>Graphs>Select Residual vs Fits. Fitted Value R e s id u a l 600500400300200 200 100 0 -100
  • 17. -200 Residuals Versus the Fitted Values (response is Sales) Graph analysis. Examine the graph for patterns about the mean line 0.0. If the dots are not randomly distributed above and below the line the homoscedasticity assumption is violated. You can instruct Minitab to develop the plot by selecting the graph command when you are performing simple regression. Connect the dots in sequence as you move from left to right across x axis. Minitab provides an alert when eight consecutive dots fall above or below 0. Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 8 Graph analysis. Residual versus the Variables is used to examine the effect the properties of a specific variable Examine the graph for patterns about the mean line 0.0. If the dots are not randomly distributed above and below the line the homoscedasticity assumption is violated. You can instruct Minitab to develop the plot by selecting the graph command when you are
  • 18. performing simple regression. Connect the dots in sequence as you move from left to right across x axis. Minitab provides an alert when eight consecutive dots fall above or below 0. 9876543210 200 100 0 -100 -200 Years W Midwest R e s id u a l Residuals Versus Years W Midwest (response is Sales)
  • 19. Assumption 3: Error distributions of possible y values are normal for each value of x. To satisfy this assumption you have Minitab graph an NP Plot of residuals. You can instruct Minitab to develop the plot by selecting the graph command when you are performing simple regression. Graph analysis: The residual values cluster tightly about the line indicating the residuals for each value of x are normally distributed. Residual P e r c e n t 2001000-100-200 99 95
  • 20. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 5 1 Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals (response is Sales) Assumption 4: Independence of errors. Residuals collected in one time period cannot influence residuals collected in another time period. Durbin Watson is used to detect autocorrelation. We do not want patterns of positive error terms followed in time by other positive error terms or patterns of negative error terms followed by other negative error terms. Df = P and n. P is the number of independent variables (x’s) in the
  • 21. equation. Durbin Watson test for autocorrelation DW Table Page 810 H0: Errors are nonautocorrelated H1: Errors are autocorrelated DW< 2 suggests positive autocorrelation DW≈ 2 suggests no autocorrelation DW> 2 suggests negative autocorrelation Compare value to DW located below Minitab readout. Critical range = 1.08 – 1.36 from DW table not in this text Durbin-Watson statistic = 1.45254 Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 9 Test Model for Significance: The standard error of the estimate- The spread or scatter of the observed y values about the regression line. Syx is measured in the same units as the predicted value for y. This value is the standard deviation of the population of error terms or residuals. The variance of the population is MSE from the ANOVA table. The least squares method produces the b0 and b1 estimate that
  • 22. -y’) 2 . The standard error is the square root of MSE or the square root of SSE/n-k-1. Both of these values are derived from the ANOVA table. SSE is the amount of variability unexplained by the independent variable in the model. Otherwise stated, the standard error of the estimate measures the dispersion of the dependant variable about its mean value at each value of the dependent variable in the original units of the dependant variable. The Coefficient of Simple Determination (R-sq in Minitab) is a percentage measure of how much variability (squared distance between (y-‘y) that was explained by the independent variable in the regression model. Computed as 1-(SSE/SST) or SSR/SST. Note the square root of r-squared is called the correlation coefficient and measures the strength of the linear relationship between x and y. SSR = The sum of squares residual – the amount of variation explained by the independent variable. SSE = Sum of squares of error – the amount of variation unexplained by the independent variable. Testing the validity of the regression model- p is the number of
  • 23. categories of independent variables p is years with midwest in the model. F test for slope num df = p and denominator df = n-p-1 (p is number of categories of predictor variables in equation). 2 =0 The model explains 0% of variability in y 2 T – Test for Slope Used to determine if there is a significant relationship between y and x. Rejection of the null indicates a significant relationship. Failure to reject means the model has no predictive value or x contributes to the model. df = n-p-1 H0 Confidence Interval of the Slope (does β1=0 lie within the interval?) The true slope is estimated with 95% confidence to lie within the interval b1± tn-p-1 Sb1. If the interval contains zero there is not linear relationship between the variables.
  • 24. sb = n x x S yx 2 2 Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 10 Simple Regression Study Guide Not Assigned…Use as a guide for preparing for final exam Store ID
  • 25. Shelf Space Allocated to Pet Food =X Weekly Pet Food Sales in Hundreds of Dollars =Y 1 5 1.6 2 5 2.2 3 5 1.4 4 10 1.9 5 10 2.4 6 10 2.6 7 15 2.3 8 15 2.7 9 15 2.8 10 20 2.6 11 20 2.9 12 20 3.1
  • 26. 13 25 3.3 14 25 3.5 15 25 3.4 Review the example study provided in this handout to become familiar with Minitab commands and statistical testing needed to complete the Aslin Finch pet food problem. Research Objective: The marketing manager of Aslin Finch would like to determine the effect of shelf space on the weekly sales of pet food. A random sample of 15 stores is selected with the following results. Set alpha at .01. Practice by entering the data into Minitab and analyzing the model. When you can address each of the “Label” items for multiple regression you are ready to take the final. Simple regression is used to build your confidence and because the data is limited and therefore easier to study. The final exam is largely based on multiple regression but some of the calculations are required. These calculations will be identified during lecture. Label: Problem Definition (why are you doing this analysis?) Begin with Problem Definition Label: Scatterplot Use Minitab Scatterplot with description of relationship between x and y. Describe scatterplot to
  • 27. determine whether positive or negative and explain how you made this determination in your graph description? Neither? Label: Correlation Coefficient Hypothesis test of correlation coefficient to determine if a linear relationship exists between Feet of Shelf Space and Weekly Pet Food Sales– Use six step process Simple Regression Years with Midwest and Shelf Space Winter 2016 Page 11 Label: Regression Equation (show only the equation not the entire table or output) Use Minitab to develop the regression equation-In your report, paste the Minitab output of regression equation and define regression coefficients b0 and b1 as learned during lecture. bo = and is defined as… b1= and is defined as…. Be sure to include the quantitative assessment of each in terms of pet food sales. Label: Significance Testing (Regression Coefficient) Is x a significant predictor of y? T test for significance of regression coefficient Use six step process in interpretation step discuss average amount of change in y for one unit change in x.
  • 28. Label: Significance Testing (ANOVA) What percentage of error or variation is … F Test to test R-sqd – Use six step process and in interpretation step discusses percentage of variability in y explained by x. Use six step process Label: Satisfying Regression Assumptions (Normality and constant variance) Minitab plots to include in report: Size graphs to fit neatly within report and place each description with the graph you are discussing. NP Plot for residuals -Minitab graph with description addressing to assumption(s) Residuals vs. Fits-Minitab graph with description addressing to assumption(s) Residuals and x variable-Minitab graph with description addressing to assumption(s) Graphical analyses must describe residuals plotted on graphs. Each graph must speak to the assumption and how the graphed residuals support or violate the assumption. Label: Confidence Interval for Regression Coefficient Develop confidence interval for regression coefficient and interpret –Calculations to be done by hand and typed neatly onto report. Discuss whether 0 lies in interval and interpret interval in terms of pet food sales and shelf space. Label: Prediction and Confidence Interval for Fit value of Y Use Minitab to develop prediction interval and confidence
  • 29. interval for y for a value of x you select and enter into Minitab – Interpret both intervals as they relate to y Part A Three of the most important things I would like a manager to know about me are as follows. I would like for him/her to know that I am capable of fulfilling the duties that are required to complete the job. I would also like them to know that I am the person they are looking for because I have the skills that will make their company grow and therefore I am the right person for the job. One more important detail that cannot be left out would be that I am a responsible and consider my actions I take in the work environment. These three things are very important for me. I need to know that the employer is not just choosing just “another candidate’’. By letting the employer know my skills and my responsibility there is a better chance of getting the job. I am a very responsible person and that is one of my pet peas. If I had an opportunity of telling my story in an elevator trip I would be as clearly as possible. I would start out by letting him/her know that I am a hard worker and don’t give up on the first try. I have certain goals in life and I am currently looking forward in advancing my career by working for a company that will consider my skills and talent. This elevator speech can determine whether I can get a job at his/her company. The speech could either turn out a fatal or success. Part B Reflective practice is when I think about the things I have done
  • 30. and then figuring out what I did and what I can do to improve things the next time around. I could apply this to Everyday work by considering my actions taken. I can take reflective practice in a way of improving who I am and make sure I learn from my mistakes. Reflective practice can have a lot of determination when it comes to preparing for a presentation. For example if something did not go the way you planned it to be, you can reflect back and think what you can do better next time. Creating an effective, career-related online presence on social media can be daunting. You do not want employers to look at negative feedback. I believe you should clean up your identity to avoid any misunderstandings. A I have always been a shy boy ever since I was a little boy. I don’t know why it has been like that ever since. This I could say that has effected the way I present my self in front of others. I would summarize my life experiences as harsh, timid, but have been able to surpass any challenge. These experiences have shaped me as a professional to learn that in life if you want to get something done you have to learn to overcome your fears. You are the only one who will be able to do it and no one else. It has shaped me as a university student to become a better learner and have learned that presentation will always be a part in life. In my previous experiences I have learned that when making informal presentations it is more easy and you don’t necessary have to plan things out. In a formal presentation like in an interview it is more necessary to be more careful in every aspect of the presentation. B JOSUE E RODRIGUEZ T 1121 NE 141 St Miami Florida 33161
  • 31. [email protected] Cell/(305)801-9001 Summary of Qualifications To obtain a position with a dynamic company that will allow education, interpersonal skills, and work experienced to be maximized. Computer literate and internet savvy. Excellent professional and communication skills. Superior attention to detail, calm under pressure, proactive and confident. Outstanding ability to develop and maintain constructive and cooperative working relations. Compose correspondence and accurate reports with little guidance and direction. Communicate effectively in English and Spanish. Follow and give oral and written directions. Work independently with minimum of supervision. Interpret, apply and initiate policies and procedures. Maintain cooperative working relationships with individuals at all levels of the organization. Demonstrate sensitivity to and respect for, a diverse population. Professional Experience Arlen Beach Condominium, Miami Florida; April 2015- Present: Front Desk Representative Welcomed visitors by greeting them in person or on the telephone, answering or referring inquiries. Answered incoming telephone calls, collected fees and other miscellaneous income for the association. Process mail orders- handled residents requests and concerns. When busy I helped the valet with customers luggage. Distribute, and kept a file of customers mail orders. Made sure the rules of the condominium were enforced but at the same time doing things politely and in an ordely fashion. Kept my surrounding and area neat and clean. Sevilla Hotel, El Salvador Usulutan; July 2012-February 2014
  • 32. Hotel front desk agent Greet, register, and assign rooms to guest. Issue room key and familiarize guests with the services the hotel has to offer. I answered all incoming telephone calls efficiently and accurately according to standards. I made and confirmed reservations according to Hotel Sevilla standards and utilized rooms and merchandising techniques. I was the key and communication link. Communicated between co-workers, management and other departments. I acted as the bell person in greeting guests and assisted guests in the bell persons absence or if the bell person is otherwise occupied. Answered inquiries pertaining to hotel services; registration of guests; and shopping, dining, entertainment, and travel directions. Make restaurant, transportation, or entertainment reservations, and arrange for other guest requests. Post charges such as room, massage, or telephone, to guests folios. I collected payments and made change for guests. Performed s daily bucket check to ensure that all guests information was up to date and accurate. Followed security and safety standards at all times. Kept familiar with current rates, packages, and promotions. Attended all mandatory staff meetings and training sessions. Complied with the drug free workplace policy. US Airways, El Salvador San Salvador: June 2010-May 2012 Reservations/Sales CSR A call center service representative who took incoming calls from airline customers. Dealt with complaints, helped passengers establish itineraries, persuaded customers into buying the flight they had booked, offering the company’s credit in exchange for a special discount that day. Worked with other airlines to get the best price for their needs, or answer general questions in regards to travel. Boosted the companies revenue by asking clients if they would need any hotel, car rental, or other special needs during their trip. Transferred
  • 33. customers calls, looked up information on the computer system and documented calls. Wing stop corp, Alexandria, VA: October 2004-February 2009 Shift Manager Involved with all aspects of customer service and order entry including solving problems, answering questions and working with customers to ensure fantastic service. Demonstrated the ability to prioritized multiple tasks Accustomed to fast-paced, high-pressured positions,opened/ closed stored,did financial paperwork at the end of the shift Pharmerica, Beltsville, MD: January 2009-February 2010 Pharmacy Technician Accustomed to fast- paced, high-pressured positions Demonstrated the ability to prioritized multiple tasks Met deadlines and provided quality service Answered calls, entered data, faxed, typed, and made outbound follow up calls Involved with all aspects of customer service and order entry including solving problems, answering questions and working with customers to ensure fantastic service. All State Insurance, Alexandria VA: August 2006-January-2009 Sales Agent Conducted telephone marketing to generate qualified sales lead. Developed deal tracking tools to assist sales persons in win-loss analysis. Produced monthly mailers and email messages to solicit potential clients. Organized weekly operating meetings with other sales assistants. Responsible for training new sales assistants upon hiring EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND
  • 34. Everest University Online-Associates Degree-Business Administration Florida Technical College; currently taking classes for Associates Degree in Network Administration/wireless technology TOPICS PRESENTATION OUTLINEThe outline should indicate the flow and content for your anticipated presentation.Incorporate an introduction of yourself, and link your background, experience, goals, and education to the topic. Imagine that the audience has not met you or that they do not know you very well. Assume that your own strengths and abilities, including your university studies, will be key and important to the success of your proposal for the project. Be sure the outline reflects solid organization and process.In Unit 4, you will give a final presentation based on this outline, so be sure to provide enough information for future use. Therefore, use a sentence outline format rather than simply jotting down one- or two-word topics.After you complete the outline, add a paragraph or two sharing your initial thought process for determining visual support for your presentation. Consider color choice, font choice, use of white space, layout, and so on. Refer to intellipath, unit resources, and your assigned readings for
  • 35. additional ideas. * CHOOSING YOUR TOPIC A discipline-related topic in which you propose a small project or professional action to an audience of midlevel executives. For Example:BusinessITCriminal JusticeAnyChanging a procedureUpdating softwareNew security proceduresAdopt an official charityNew personnel benefitsUpgrading equipmentUpdating policiesEmployer support of educationEmployee handbookChanging providersAdding new equipmentOther changes Brainstorming startersHow would you fix a problem at a former or current employer?What would your ideal workplace look like?Which charity deserves support from companies in your area?How should an employer support employee education?
  • 36. Assignment clarification SPEAKER You: A new hire with a great idea to make your workplace better YOUR AUDIENCE Midlevel managers at your new workplace YOUR TOPIC A proposal related to your AIU study discipline/career, for example: BUSINESS: Change of policy or new procedure IT: New equipment or software CJ: Updated security or changes to department policies Your audience is a group of mid-level managers, whom you work for. You may be a recent hire, because some of them don't know you very well yet. Your presentation is a proposal to that group of managers for something related to your study discipline here at AIU. So, if you are studying business, you might be proposing a new handbook. If you are studying IT, perhaps a change in equipment or software. Criminal justice students might propose security changes or new department policies. You should give some information about your work/career/school background to show why you are the right person to propose/carry out the project.
  • 37. * THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT…An elevator speechA job interviewReally about you The personal/career/background information is there to support the PROPOSALIt should be less than 3 minutes of your total speech time (10-12 minutes) * Introduction Your name and welcome Your background, experience, goals and education Preview of project/proposal Main Point 1 Details about the project/proposal (with sub-points) Evidence to support project/proposal (with sub-points) Main Point 2 Why this particular project/proposal is the best option (with sub-points) How this project/proposal will be put into effect (with sub- points) Main Point 3 Why you are the person to accomplish the project/proposal (link to intro) How your skills are essential/a perfect fit/ideal in this situation Conclusion Review of the project/proposal Thank your audience for their attention Call to action
  • 38. Recommended Format * Good afternoon, everyone! Welcome ! I am NAME and it’s great to be here. I am currently pursing an Associates Degree at American Intercontinental University. I have been a stay at home mom for many years but am excited about getting out into the workforce. I effectively and efficiently have managed a busy household. I have found that consistent rules and guidelines are important and essential. The same can be said for business. I am proposing that this company have a written employee handbook. Our company policies should be clearly stated. These policies should include general working hours, company rules and regulations (dress code, safety regulations, how to interact with clients, etc). It should also include how vacation time is earned; policies on sick leave, personal days and paid holidays; overtime and maternity policies. Health and medical benefits as well as pension plans and other fringe benefits should be explained. Salary and performance reviews should be explained here and any other rules and regulations that the company has to date. It’s imperative that we explain that employment with the company is “at will”. We need to state clearly that employment here can be terminated at any time without cause. It is important to be clear, concise and direct. We do not want to leave any room for confusion. We need to avoid errors to protect against claims of wrongful discharge. Using the words “permanent employee” should not occur anywhere in the handbook. Also, we need to avoid any language
  • 39. that signifies termination can only be “for cause”. There will be verbal promises or similar assurances of continued employment. It is also important that we avoid language that implies that any employee making it through the introductory or probationary period is less vulnerable to termination. To save money we can write the handbook ourselves and have our attorney review it. When our employees receive their copy, they will sign for it. This acknowledges that they have received it. This will help to protect against claims that the employee was not aware of our policies and rules. I am the right person to get this handbook written and distributed. As I stated earlier, I have been effectively and efficiently running a household with three active teenagers and a hardworking husband. I am familiar with organization and the importance of rules. Having everything in black and white leaves no room for misunderstanding and questions can be easily answered. I am highly organized and like things to be streamlined. Having clear guidelines for everyone makes for less confusion. Less confusion makes happier and more productive employees. In conclusion, I believe that employee handbooks are essential to our company. Again, I believe that handbooks will make our rules and policies clear to everyone. In addition, they will protect us against unnecessary lawsuits in many instances. Thank you taking the time to listen to my proposal today and I hope you value how important the addition of an employee handbook is to our company. Let’s all work together to write this handbook and avoid any confusion about our wonderful workplace! I am NAME, my primary background was originally in the printing industry; which lead me into the manufacturing setting;
  • 40. and then finally, I shifted into the transportation industry.I am currently an independent contractor working with a local courier service; according the government, I am self- employed.Prior from switching over from manufacturing to my current industry, I felt I needed to make a change, that what I was doing was not working anymore. (Jobs are continuously being replaced by technology).I have found a place where I like to work. I actually am really happy where I am now and now I wish to continue in the current industry.Affordable Care ActBecause of the Affordable Care Act, there is a new tax penalty fee that has been put in place for those without medical insurance.2014 tax penalties (ACA Individual Mandate):$95.00 for an adult to go without coverage; $57.50 for a child to go without coverage;Which can be up to $285 for a familyAdditionally, a tax penalty may be 1% of total income; the penalty is whichever is greater.2015 tax penalties (ACA Individual Mandate):$325.00 for an adult to go without coverage; $162.50 for a child to go without coverage;Which can be up to $975 for a familyAdditionally, a tax penalty may be 2% of total income; the penalty is whichever is greater.“Affordable” insurance premiums are not affordable.Many companies out there today advertise that they have “affordable” insurance plans available. I have recently looked for insurance plans available in my area and I found that most plans available are over $150.00. To me, this not an affordable cost.The average cost per month can range from $131.00 to 499.00 depending on age (eHealth Price Index, n.d.);Or an average cost of $191 to $452, depending on what sate you live in (eHealth Price Index, n.d.).Your contractors will look for work elsewhere.Because of the high insurance premiums, finding another company that will provide health insurance would be ideal to those who wish to avoid the penalty.For those who wish to remain in the transportation industry, there are other courier jobs out there that will hire people on as an employee rather than a contractor.I have done my research locally; these other courier jobs do actually give
  • 41. their employees benefits.Sure others might join this company, it is easier to get into the industry when do not have experience as a contractor; but once one has enough experience that another company might recognize, then you would be out a contractor.I believe it would be beneficial to the company and the contractors if medical insurance was available.I believe this because of ACA and the tax penalty that has been put in place;I believe this because medical insurance costs, just cost too much;I believe this because I know there are contractors that are not happy, and will look elsewhere for work.I realize that that it is not conventional to provide the benefits to contractors, but with the new laws put in place, this company needs to adapt.
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