Software Engineering (Project Planning & Estimation)

Software Engineering
(CSI 321)
Project Planning &
Estimation
1

Introduction
• Software project management begins with a set of
activities that are collectively called project planning.
• The software project planner must estimate three
things before a project begins:
– How long it will take?
– How much effort will be required?
– How many people will be involved?
• In addition, the planner must predict the resources
(h/w & s/w) that will be required and the risk
involved.
2

Introduction
• Software project planning encompasses five major
activities –
1) Estimation
2) Scheduling
3) Risk analysis
4) Quality management planning
5) Change management planning
3

Project Planning
• The overall goal of project planning is to
establish a logical strategy for controlling,
tracking, and monitoring a complex technical
project.
• Why?
– So that end result gets done on time, with quality!
4

The Project Planning Process
• The objective of software project planning is to
provide a framework that enables the manager to
make reasonable estimates of resources, cost, and
schedule.
• The project plan must be adapted and updated as
the project proceeds.
– The more you know, the better you estimate. So, update
your estimates as the project progresses.
5

6
Task Set for Project Planning
1) Establish project scope
2) Determine feasibility
3) Analyze risks
4) Define required resources
– Determine human resources required
– Define reusable software resources
– Identify environmental resources

7
Task Set for Project Planning
5) Estimate Cost and Effort
– Decompose the problem
– Develop two or more estimates using size, function points,
process tasks or use-cases
– Reconcile the estimates
6) Develop a project Schedule
– Establish a meaningful task set
– Define a task network
– Use scheduling tools to develop a timeline chart
– Define schedule tracking mechanisms

8
Estimation
• Estimation involves determining how much money, effort,
resources and time it will take to build a specific software.
• Estimation of resources, cost, and schedule for a software
engineering effort requires:
– Experience
– Access to good historical information (metrics)
– The courage to commit to quantitative predictions when
qualitative information is all that exists
• Estimation carries inherent risk and this risk leads to
uncertainty.

To Understand Scope ...
• Understand the customers needs
• Understand the business context
• Understand the project boundaries
• Understand the customer’s motivation
• Understand the likely paths for change
• Understand that ...
Even when you understand,
nothing is guaranteed!
9

Software Scope
• Software scope describes:
– Functions and features that are to be delivered to end-users
– Data that are input and output
– “Content” that is presented to users as a consequence of using
the software
– Performance, constraints, interfaces, and reliability that bound
the system.
• Scope is defined using one of two techniques:
1) A narrative description of software scope is developed after
communication with all stakeholders.
2) A set of use-cases is developed by end-users.
10

Feasibility
• Once software scope is well-understood, it is necessary to
determine the feasibility of the software.
• Project feasibility is important, BUT a consideration of
business need is MORE important. Why?!!?
==> It does no good to build a high-tech system that no one
wants!
• Feasibility study is a crucial part of the estimation process.
– A study that determines whether a requested system
makes economic, technical and operational sense for an
organization
– Conducted by the Project Manager
– Takes place before the system is constructed
11

Feasibility
• Software feasibility has four solid dimensions –
1) Technology
2) Finance
3) Time
4) Resources
• Scoping is not enough. Once scope is understood, the
software team & others must work to determine if it can
be done within these dimensions. This is a crucial part of
estimation process (but often overlooked).
12

13
Project Resources
project
people
skills
number
location
reusable
softwareOTS
components
full-experience
components
new
components
part.-experience
components
environment
hardware
software
tools
network
resources

Resource Estimation
• The software project planner must conduct an estimation of
the resources required to accomplish the software
development effort.
• Three major categories of software engineering resources –
1) People(Human Resources)
2) Reusable software components
3) Development environment (hardware & software tools)
• Each of the resources is specified with four characteristics –
– Description of the resource
– A statement of availability
– When the resource will be required
– Duration of time that resource will be applied
14

Resource Estimation
1) Human Resources
– Number of people required and skills needed to complete the
development project, location of human resources
1) Reusable Software Resources
– Off-the-shelf components
– Full-experience components
– Partial-experience components
– New components
1) Environmental Resources
– Hardware and software required during the development
process
15

Software Project Estimation
• Project scope must be explicitly defined
• Task and/or functional decomposition is necessary
• Historical measures (metrics) are very helpful
• At least two different techniques should be used
• Remember that uncertainty is inherent in the
estimation process
16

Estimation Options
 To achieve reliable cost & effort estimates, a number of
options arise –
1) Delay estimation until late in the project
– not practical
1) Base estimates on similar projects already completed
– work reasonably well
1) Use simple decomposition techniques to estimate project
cost and effort
2) Use empirical models for software cost and effort estimation
17

Estimation Techniques
1) Past (similar) project experience
2) Decomposition technique
– task breakdown and effort estimates
– size (e.g., LOC, FP) estimates
1) Empirical techniques use empirically derived
expressions for effort & time estimation
18

Decomposition Techniques
• Size
– Lines of code (LOC) – direct approach
– Function point(FP) – indirect approach
• Software sizing
– Fuzzy Logic
– Function Point calculation
– Standard component
– % Change
• Process-based estimation
– Decomposition based on tasks required to
complete the software process framework
19

Conventional Methods: LOC/FP Approach
• Compute LOC/FP using estimates of information
domain values
• Use historical data to build estimates for the project
20

Empirical Estimation Models
• Experiential Models
– Typically derived from regression analysis of historical
software project data with estimated person-months as
the dependent variable
• Static Estimation Model
– Does not include time as an independent variable
– COnstructive COst MOdel (COCOMO)
• An algorithmic software cost estimation model developed by
Barry Boehm. The model uses a basic regression formula, with
parameters that are derived from historical project data and
current project characteristics.
• Dynamic Estimation Models
– Usually takes time or development phase into account
– Software Equation Model
21

The Make/Buy Decision
• It may be more cost effective to acquire a piece of
software rather than develop it.
• Decision tree analysis provides a systematic way to
sort through the make/buy decision.
• As a rule, outsourcing software development
requires more skillful management than does in-
house development of the same product.
22

A decision tree helps “Make/Buy Decision”
23
system Xsystem X
reusereuse
simple (0.30)simple (0.30)
difficult (0.70)difficult (0.70)
minorminor changeschanges
(0.40)(0.40)
majormajor
changeschanges
(0.60)(0.60)
simple (0.20)simple (0.20)
complex (0.80)complex (0.80)
majormajor changeschanges (0.30)(0.30)
minorminor changeschanges
(0.70)(0.70)
$380,000$380,000
$450,000$450,000
$275,000$275,000
$310,000$310,000
$490,000$490,000
$210,000$210,000
$400,000$400,000
buybuy
contractcontract
without changes (0.60)without changes (0.60)
with changes (0.40)with changes (0.40)
$350,000$350,000
$500,000$500,000
buildbuild

Computing Expected Cost
expected cost =expected cost = (path probability) x (estimated path cost)(path probability) x (estimated path cost)
ii ii
For example, the expected cost to build is:For example, the expected cost to build is:
expected cost = 0.30($380K)+0.70($450K)expected cost = 0.30($380K)+0.70($450K)
buildbuild
= $429 K= $429 K
Similarly,Similarly,
expected cost = $382Kexpected cost = $382K
reusereuse
expected cost = $267Kexpected cost = $267K
buybuy
24
expected costexpected cost = $410K= $410K
contractcontract

The Decision Making Process
• Cost is NOT the only criterion to consider while
making a decision.
• Many other criteria (not just cost ) must be
considered during the decision making process.
– Availability
– Experience of the developer/vendor/contractor
– Conformance to requirements
– Local “politics”
– Likelihood of change
25

Outsourcing
 What is outsourcing?
• Outsourcing is the practice of turning over
responsibility of some or all of an organization's
information systems applications and operations to
an outside firm.
– Hiring an external vendor, developer, or service provider
to create the system
– Requires least amount of resources and little in-house
experience
– Gives access to greater resources and experience
– Can be a good alternative for a new system
– Has become quite popular in recent years
26

Outsourcing
 What are the reasons to outsource?
– Cost-effective
– Take advantage of economies of scale
– Free up internal resources
– Reduce time to market
– Increase process efficiencies
– System development is a non-core activity for the
organization
27

Outsourcing
 What are the possible risks in outsourcing?
• Risks include possibly
– Losing confidential information
– Losing control over future development
– Losing learning opportunities
– Expertise is transferred to the outside
organization
28

Project Estimation: Summary
• Software cost & effort estimation will never be an
exact science, because too many variables involved –
– Human
– Technical
– Environmental
– Political
• But a combination of good historical data and
systematic techniques can improve estimation
accuracy.
29

Software Engineering (Project Planning & Estimation)

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