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Nar+midyear2010+residential final 51310

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Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors

- The document summarizes the state of the US housing market and economic outlook based on a presentation by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors. - It finds that the first-time homebuyer tax credit was successful in stimulating home sales but much of the benefit went to those who would have bought anyway. Continued job growth is needed for further recovery. - While home prices and sales are stabilizing, high foreclosure and housing inventory rates remain risks going forward. The outlook expects moderate economic and housing market growth through 2010 but uncertainty remains from factors like a possible Greek debt crisis contagion.

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Economic and Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ยฎ Presentation at NARโ€™s Midyear Economic Issues and Residential Forum Washington, D.C. May 13, 2010
Recent Pending Home Sales Source: NAR
Recent National Pending Home Sales (year-over-year % change) Source: NAR Tax Credit Help to Sales Despite 3.7 million job losses
ย 
Distressed Home Sales Source: NAR Foreclosed Short-Sale
Latest Home Price Trend - Stabilizing % change from one year ago Loan Performance in Yellow FHFA in Red Case-Shiller in Green NAR in Blue Pre-tax credit Tax credit
Sample Markets with Price Increases Source: NAR % change from one year ago
Tax Credit was Not-Impactful ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tax Credit was Huge Success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
After the Tax Credit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Source: BLS In thousands NET Job Changes in U.S. (Monthly Payroll Job Change) 2 million job creation each year โ€ฆ will take 4 years to recover all the job losses โ€ฆ will take 6 years to fully absorb new workers and get back to 6% unemployment rate
Source: BLS In thousands Job Turnover in U.S. (Total job gains and total job losses) Fewer firings but people seeking for unemployment insurance because of lack of hirings
Household Formation (2-year moving average)
People Mobility (How many move each year?) Intra-state mobility modestly down Inter-state mobility significantly down %
Consumer Confidence Chart about future expectations according to Conference Board But no true measure for home buying confidence
30-year Rate on Conforming and FHA ( Not Jumbo or 2 nd Home ) Source: Freddie Mac
30yr Mortgage and 10yr Treasury Spread % points Financial Crisis
Swings in Primary and Second Home Sales Index Source: NAR Primary Home Sales 2 nd Home Sales
Non-Government Backed Mortgages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risk to Recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
High Existing Home Inventory In thousand units
High Homeowner Vacancy Rate In thousand units % About 700,000 extra vacant homes above normal
Depressed Housing Starts In thousand units In thousands
Low New Home Inventory In thousand units In thousands
Future Housing Shortage? Year Housing Starts Historical Normal Cumulative Surplus/Deficit 2003 1.85 million 1.6 million + 0.25 million 2004 1.95 million 1.6 million + 0.60 million 2005 2.07 million 1.6 million + 1.07 million 2006 1.81 million 1.6 million + 1.28 million 2007 1.34 million 1.6 million +1.02 million 2008 0.90 million 1.6 million + 0.32 million 2009 0.55 million 1.6 million - 0.73 million 2010 forecast 0.68 million 1.6 million -1.65 million 2011 forecast 0.95 million 1.6 million - 2.30 million
Serious Delinquency Rate (90+ days late or foreclosure) % Subprime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],VA (purple) FHA Prime (green)
Number of Distressed Loans
Greece ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
U.S. Budget Deficit Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections Source: CBO, NAR estimate U.S. to be Greece in 25 years?
Economic Outlook 2008 2009 2010 forecast GDP 0.4% -2.5% 3.1% CPI Inflation 3.8% -0.2% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.3% 9.7% 10-year Treasury 3.7% 3.3% 3.9%
Housing Outlook 2008 2009 2010 forecast Existing Home Sales 4.9 m 5.2 m 5.4 m New Home Sales 485 k 375 k 400 k Home Price Growth -10% -13% 2% to 3% Mortgage Rate 6.1% 5.1% 5.3% Consumer confidence about home buying Down Down Up
Right Tools Right Now ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Nar+midyear2010+residential final 51310

  • 1. Economic and Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ยฎ Presentation at NARโ€™s Midyear Economic Issues and Residential Forum Washington, D.C. May 13, 2010
  • 2. Recent Pending Home Sales Source: NAR
  • 3. Recent National Pending Home Sales (year-over-year % change) Source: NAR Tax Credit Help to Sales Despite 3.7 million job losses
  • 5. Distressed Home Sales Source: NAR Foreclosed Short-Sale
  • 6. Latest Home Price Trend - Stabilizing % change from one year ago Loan Performance in Yellow FHFA in Red Case-Shiller in Green NAR in Blue Pre-tax credit Tax credit
  • 7. Sample Markets with Price Increases Source: NAR % change from one year ago
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Source: BLS In thousands NET Job Changes in U.S. (Monthly Payroll Job Change) 2 million job creation each year โ€ฆ will take 4 years to recover all the job losses โ€ฆ will take 6 years to fully absorb new workers and get back to 6% unemployment rate
  • 12. Source: BLS In thousands Job Turnover in U.S. (Total job gains and total job losses) Fewer firings but people seeking for unemployment insurance because of lack of hirings
  • 13. Household Formation (2-year moving average)
  • 14. People Mobility (How many move each year?) Intra-state mobility modestly down Inter-state mobility significantly down %
  • 15. Consumer Confidence Chart about future expectations according to Conference Board But no true measure for home buying confidence
  • 16. 30-year Rate on Conforming and FHA ( Not Jumbo or 2 nd Home ) Source: Freddie Mac
  • 17. 30yr Mortgage and 10yr Treasury Spread % points Financial Crisis
  • 18. Swings in Primary and Second Home Sales Index Source: NAR Primary Home Sales 2 nd Home Sales
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. High Existing Home Inventory In thousand units
  • 22. High Homeowner Vacancy Rate In thousand units % About 700,000 extra vacant homes above normal
  • 23. Depressed Housing Starts In thousand units In thousands
  • 24. Low New Home Inventory In thousand units In thousands
  • 25. Future Housing Shortage? Year Housing Starts Historical Normal Cumulative Surplus/Deficit 2003 1.85 million 1.6 million + 0.25 million 2004 1.95 million 1.6 million + 0.60 million 2005 2.07 million 1.6 million + 1.07 million 2006 1.81 million 1.6 million + 1.28 million 2007 1.34 million 1.6 million +1.02 million 2008 0.90 million 1.6 million + 0.32 million 2009 0.55 million 1.6 million - 0.73 million 2010 forecast 0.68 million 1.6 million -1.65 million 2011 forecast 0.95 million 1.6 million - 2.30 million
  • 26.
  • 28.
  • 29. U.S. Budget Deficit Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections Source: CBO, NAR estimate U.S. to be Greece in 25 years?
  • 30. Economic Outlook 2008 2009 2010 forecast GDP 0.4% -2.5% 3.1% CPI Inflation 3.8% -0.2% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.3% 9.7% 10-year Treasury 3.7% 3.3% 3.9%
  • 31. Housing Outlook 2008 2009 2010 forecast Existing Home Sales 4.9 m 5.2 m 5.4 m New Home Sales 485 k 375 k 400 k Home Price Growth -10% -13% 2% to 3% Mortgage Rate 6.1% 5.1% 5.3% Consumer confidence about home buying Down Down Up
  • 32.

Editor's Notes

  1. This graph shows the number of distressed loans by category. The bottom category is the foreclosure inventory, which as you can has been steadily rising but the increase over the last 2 quarters of 2009 tempered off some. The green group are foreclosures started which have also decreased in the last quarter of 2009. this is, as I will talk about it more later on, due to pressure on mortgage companies to modify distressed loans and minimize the numbers going into foreclosure. Many states have also put moratorium on foreclosures towards the end of the year. The pink group are mortgages 90+ days past due which have also leveled out at the end of 2009. finally is the orange group, which are newly delinquent loans and that is the most positive news, showing that loans entering delinquent status are decreasing and possibly indicating that the foreclosure crisis in 2010 might not be as bad as was in 2009.
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