Keynote Australian Primary Principals Association, Sept 2017

Adaptive Schools for a Different
Future
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
Keynote Presentation, 15th September
Queensland Association of State School Principals

The Consequences of
Poor Literacy
Just a moment…

“Thefuture
isn’twhatit
usedto be..”

What’sItAll
About?
 This presentation has three components:
 A Brief History of the Future
 The Implications of This Future for Learning
and Schools
 Leadership for a Different Future

FiveForces
Shapingthe
Future
1. Governments and their relationships with public
institutions – austerity, accountability and complexity.
2. New forms of organizations and new patterns of work. –
the “uberization” of organizations and the “gig” economy.
3. Technological change shifting the focus of work,
productivity and performance:
1. Artificial Intelligence
2. Robotics
3. 3D Printing
4. Stem-Cell Therapies and new approaches to medical
treatment.
5. New materials (e.g. graphene)
4. Environmental shifts – 9 billion people by 2050 and
climate change.
5. Demographic shifts and changes in social behaviour and
“consciousness” – new patterns of social interaction,
social engagement and new understandings of
relationships between people, people and work, people
and society, people and the planet.

Contingentand
SelfEmployment
Growing
 By the year 2015 in Australia, app. 30% of the
workforce were contingent workers – contracted
for service rather than employees. 17% declare
themselves in this way as self-employed. The
contingent workforce doubled since 2008.
 60% of the university sector are contingent
workers (sessional, part-timers).
 80% of all new jobs advertised in Australia over
the last twelve months were part-time.

TheGigEconomy
IStheEconomy..  Worldwide, 40% of the world’s
workforce are contingent workers
and this number is expected to rise to
60% by 2020.
 In the Fortune 100 companies,
contingent workers make up 30% of
the workforce, but predictions are
that will soon rise to 50%.

NotOnlyHasWHO
isworkingchanged,
butWHATtheydo
hastoo
 Manufacturing more focused on the management of technology
than production activity – maintenance.
 Artificial intelligence + design = new thinking about process.
 Office work has changed – 24x7 access, process based work,
globalization of work..
 Most gains in productivity arise from deployment of technology –
we need to learn to dance with robots
BMW Mini Plant at Cowley, Oxford UK
A customized car every 61 seconds

Idea2:MoreChangeto
Come
Technology

Emerging
Technology:3D
Printing
 Local Motors (Phoenix, Arizona) crowdsources design and
engineering and then 3D prints its components / body.
 Manufactures customized versions on demand.
 Manufactures all forms of transport, including snowmobiles,
water based vehicles and public transport.
 First driverless 3d printed public bus now operating in
Helsinki and will soon operate in Calgary

3DPrinting
Quickly
Emerging…
 A group of Dutch engineers have printed a bridge crossing a Dutch canal
using an “arm printer”, overcoming the size limitations of 1st and 2nd
generation 3D printers.
 Apis Cor (San Francisco) 3D printed a house in 24 hours at a cost of
$12,000US that met the California building code.
 3D medical devices – prosthetics, stents, dental devices and other – already
a fast growing sector: the ability to personalize / customize a strong
attractor.
 Using a cell phone as a printer (light from the phone used on polymers to
print) Elon Musk and his engineers at SpaceX have created a 3D printed
SuperDraco rocket engine. This got off the ground in 2016.
 3D printing now includes:
 Aerospace parts (European Space Agency)
 Metal parts using various metals and graphene
 Props and materials for films / TV
 Shoes and clothing
 Bones, skin and body parts
 Tires and car parts

Robotics
 Forget many of the images you have of what robots are
and what they can do..
 Imagine..
 Robotic kitchens which can produce meals on demand..
 Robotic weapons and fight systems
 Self-driving cars, buses, trains and trucks likely to
replace current transport systems over time – potential
displacement of some 3.5 million North American
workers by 2030
 570,000 surgeries in 2014 were robotically assisted in
the US

Artificial
Intelligence(AI)  Offering an analysis of an MRI scan – suggesting clinical
pathways based on “best possible” understanding
 Predicting student behaviour
 Counselling and personal therapy..
 Supports for design and creativity
 Man-machine interfaces for better productivity – especially in
manufacturing, financial services and health
The Singularity – Where AI is smarter than
the collective intelligence of the species

Idea2:MoreChangeto
Come
Demography

BasicDemography(Canada) By 2030, 218.7% of Australians will be over 65 years of
age - up from 13.8% in 2011 - by 2054 it will be 21%
 Rate of growth of seniors is faster than the rate of growth
of the working population.
 Ratio of those in work to those not working will change,
impacting tax revenues
The Age of
the Senior

By2050:More
Demographic
Shocks..
 Global population will exceed 9 billion
 The proportion of the world’s population over 65 will double
 There will be over 400 million persons over 80 – 4x the present number
 80% of those 65 or older will live in low or middle income countries
 For the first time in history, there will be more people over 65 than under 14
 In Italy, Japan and Spain 1 in 3 will be over 65

Economic
Geography–Shift
Happens!
 2.3 billion new middle class consumers will emerge by 2030,
mainly in Asia, India and Africa
 By 2025 almost 50% of the world’s billion dollar companies will be
headquartered in emerging markets, not in North America or
Europe (41% of them are already Asian based)
 425 major cities will fuel the global economy – 315 of them are in
Asia

Changesinthe
Workforce
 Shift from routine work to creative
employment..
 Replacement of routine work with
technology – think secretarial services,
banking, insurance, travel..
 Higher education key to future
employment..

AllofWhich
GivesRiseTo..
 Increased pressure on Governments for $$ at a time
when the tax base is shrinking
 Increased pressure on schools, colleges and universities
to engage in both the skills agenda but also a new focus
on resilience and adaptability
 Increased pressure to accelerate program completion,
offer more flexible routes to success and engage in new
and imaginative programming.

AManifestation
ofWhich…
 The Skills Gap – which is actually complex..
 Gap 1: The Basic Gap: The Gap Between What
Employers are Seeking and What they Can Find
 Gap 2: The Expectations Gap – The Gap Between What
an Employee Expects to Experience at Work and What
they Actually Find Themselves Doing
 Gap 3: The Productivity Gap – The Skills We Need to
Develop to Significantly Improve Productivity
 Gap 4: The Leverage Gap – The Underutilization of
Skills in the Workforce
 Gap 5: The Futures Gap – The Gap Between Current
Skill Sets and the Skills We Need to Become Competitive
in the 4th Industrial Revolution
 Gap 6: The Innovation Gap - The Skills We Need to Build
a More Innovative and Sustainable Economy

andanew
understanding
of“SELF”
 A variety of substantial surveys of
Millennials (born between 1981 and
2000) show that they see themselves as:
 “Awesome”
 Capable
 Confident
 Connected
 Open to Change
 Work-Life Balance
 High Expectations for Themselves and
Society

We’re in the midst of a significa nt
change.A..
In Between
Time
Time and the Investment of Energy and Effort
SystemMaturity
Industrial
Form of
Schooling / 3rd
Way Policies
21st Century for
of Personalized
Learning in
School and
Community / 4th
Way Policies
Paradigm Shi
The Future School in the In Between
Time

TwoSolitudesof
Educational
Policy
(MurgatroydandSahlberg,2016)
Competition Between
Schools
Frequent Testing /
Accountability
De-Professionalization
PISA Envy
Collaboration
Trust Based
Responsibility
Collaborative
Professional Autonomy
Equity as the Key
Measure
GERM EQUITY

5Important
Developments
 Schools are where the action is - schools make a
difference, not technology or analytics or policy
 Schools make a difference through a focus on the
student as a person not as a data point -
compassion, empathy and genuineness produce
more outcomes than algorithms and PISA
 Collaboration is the DNA of the knowledge economy
- teachers who collaborate with other teachers and
students who engage in collaborative meaningful
projects achieve..
 Learning from others around the world helps us
improve our local work - go glocal!
 Challenging ourselves to create great schools for all
is the key task of leadership.

TheDelors
Framework
My Self
and My
Future
Learning
to Know
Learning
to Do
Learning
to Live
Together
Learning
to Be

KeyComponents
ofEmergent
LearningSystems
 They focus on meeting learner needs and expectations.
Teaching is about engagement, value creation and
competencies.
 Through engagement, personalized learning and
competency based assessment we can change the pace
of learning
 Schools prosper when students are engaged in the
design of their learning experiences and the student
voice is heard
 Schools thrive when teachers collaborate
 But learning “stuff” is no longer the key - we need to
think about adaptive, resilient learners - this will be
the key “skill” in the balance of this century

• Tough
Minded
• Self-
Disciplined
• Adaptive• Purposeful
Connected Curious
Self-
Reliant
Hopeful
TheResilientandAdaptive
Student

HowWouldYour
StudentsAnswer
These12
Questions?
 I know what is expected of me in school today
 I have everything I need to be a successful student
today
 At this school I have an opportunity to shine as a
student every day
 In the last five school days I have been recognized for
my achievements by a teacher
 My teachers know me and care about me as a person
 My voice as a student counts in this school – I feel I
can make a difference

..2…
 What this school stands for makes me proud to be a
student
 Everyone in my class is committed to doing quality
work
 I have a best friend at school
 Every month someone talks to me about my progress
at school
 Every month I feel I have an opportunity to grow
through learning
 My teachers are committed to my development

WhatDoYou
NeedtoDo?
 Build and empower teacher teams..
 Build and empower supports for learners and learning
 Enable the student voice to be heard
 Connect to others around the world: collaborate, engage,
adopt/adapt
 Focus, re-focus, and focus again on equity as an ambition in
terms of outcomes for all learners
 Never let a good crisis go to waste..
 Use “small data” to capture the nuances of their work

Keynote Australian Primary Principals Association, Sept 2017

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