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Aggregate Demand
EdExcel AS Economics 2.2.1
Meaning and Measurement of Aggregate Demand
• Aggregate Demand (AD) =
– Total level of planned real expenditure on the goods and
services produced within a country
• The components of aggregate demand are:
– Household spending on goods and services (C)
– Gross Fixed Capital Investment Spending (I)
– Value of the Change in Stocks (Inventories)
– Government Consumption (G) (Public services)
– Exports of Goods and Services (X)
– (minus) Imports of Goods and Services (M)
• GDP (expenditure-based) is the actual value of expenditure
• Changes in AD are key to understanding short-term fluctuations
in a cycle e.g. recession and recovery, boom and slowdown
Components of UK Aggregate Demand 2007-2015
Source: HM-Treasury Databank
Consumption
(C)
Government
Spending (G)
Investment
(I)
Exports
(X)
Imports
(M)
Year Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent
2007 2.8 1.2 5.3 -2.1 -0.8
2008 -0.5 2.0 -4.7 1.6 -1.8
2009 -3.3 1.2 -14.4 -8.2 -9.8
2010 0.5 0.0 5.9 6.2 8.7
2011 -0.1 0.0 2.3 5.6 1.0
2012 1.5 2.3 0.7 0.7 3.1
2013 1.7 -0.3 3.4 1.5 1.4
2014 2.6 1.6 8.6 0.5 2.4
2015
The Relative Importance of Components of AD
Source: HM-Treasury Databank
Consumption
(C)
Government
Spending (G)
Investment
(I)
Exports
(X)
Imports
(M)
Year £m £m £m £m £m
2007 1021 326 294 477 538
2008 1016 333 281 485 528
2009 982 337 240 445 476
2010 987 337 254 472 518
2011 985 337 260 499 523
2012 1000 345 262 502 539
2013 1018 344 271 510 547
2014 1044 349 294 512 560
2015
Consumption is far and away the biggest component of AD
The Aggregate Demand Curve (AD)
General
Price Level
Real GDP
AD =
C+I+G+(X-M)
GPL1
Y1Y2
GPL2
GPL3
Y3
A rise in the price level causes a
contraction of AD
The Aggregate Demand Curve (AD)
General
Price Level
Real GDP
AD =
C+I+G+(X-M)
GPL1
Y1Y2
GPL2
GPL3
Y3
A rise in the price level causes a
contraction of AD
A fall in the price level
causes an expansion of AD
Understanding why the AD Curve Slopes Downwards
Falling real
incomes
• As the price level rises, the real value of income falls
and consumers are less able to buy what they want or
need – this is known as the real balance effect
Balance of
trade
• A persistent rise in the price of level of Country X
could make foreign-produced goods and services
cheaper, causing a fall in exports and a rise in imports
Interest
rate effect
• If the price level rises, this causes inflation and an
increase in demand for money and a possible rise in
interest rates on loans which then has a deflationary
effect on consumer and business demand
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve (AD)
General
Price Level
Real GDP
AD1
GPL1
Y1
AD2
Y2
AD3
AD1 – AD2: Outward
shift – will raise national
output at all price levels
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve (AD)
General
Price Level
Real GDP
AD1
GPL1
Y1
AD2
Y2
AD3
Y3
AD1 – AD2: Outward
shift – will raise national
output at all price levels
AD1 – AD3: Inward shift
– will reduce national
output at all price levels
Examples of Causes of Shifts in Aggregate Demand
Fall in AD
Fall in exports
Cut in government
spending
Higher interest rates
Decline in household
wealth
Increase in AD
Depreciation of the
exchange rate
Cuts in direct and indirect
taxes
Increase in house prices
Expansion of supply of
credit + lower interest rates
Changes to Monetary Policy
• Changes in official monetary policy interest rates
• Change in the supply of money and credit
• Change in the value of a country’s exchange rate
Changes to Government Fiscal Policy
• Changes in the level of direct / indirect taxes
• Changes in government (state) spending
• Changes in government (fiscal) borrowing
Business and Consumer confidence
• Planned capital investment spending by businesses
• Consumer confidence and retail spending
Focus on Key Causes of Shifts in Aggregate Demand
External Shocks to Aggregate Demand
Many unexpected events cause changes in demand, output and
employment. These events are called external “shocks”.
A large rise or fall in the value of the exchange rate
A recession, slowdown or boom in one or more of a nation’s key
trading partner countries
A slump in the housing market / construction sector of a country
An event such as the Global Financial Crisis which caused a fall in
the supply of credit available to businesses and households
A large change in commodity prices for a country that
is a commodity exporter
Exports of Goods and Services (X)
Relative Prices
of exports in
World Markets
The exchange
rate – a
stronger
currency makes
exports more
expensive
Non-Price
Demand
Factors e.g.
Design and
Branding
Strength of
Aggregate
Demand in Key
Export Markets
Exports are goods and services sold to other countries. Exports are
an injection into a nation’s circular flow of income and spending
Many factors affect the
level of demand for a
nation’s exports – some of
these are shown on the left
The Net Trade Balance (X-M) and Aggregate Demand
The net trade balance is measured the value of exported goods and
services minus the value of imported products
A trade surplus means
that X>M – aggregate
demand will increase
A trade deficit means
that M>X – aggregate
demand will fall
If X=M, then the trade
balance is zero, external
trade will have a
neutral effect on AD 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TradebalanceinbillionU.S.dollars
Balance of Trade for China 2000-2014
• Public sector debt is owed by central and local
government and by public (state-owned) corporations
– Debts owed by state-owned banks are included in national
debt
• Private sector debt is owed by private businesses and
households.
– Companies may have borrowed to finance investment
(corporate sector debt)
– Households have loans for example credit card debt and
mortgages on properties.
• Financial debt is also part of the private sector – this is
the outstanding (unpaid) debts of banks and financial
corporations - for example the level of bad debts on
loans to businesses and to the housing market
Public and Private Sector Debt
• In the spring of 2013, household
and non-financial firms’ debt
amounted to 208% of UK GDP –
down to levels last seen in mid-
2007, but significantly higher than
they were a decade ago (170pc of
GDP) and 15 years ago (128pc of
GDP).
• The UK private debt/GDP ratio is
high by historical and international
standards, and far above the 160%
level used by the EU Commission
as a threshold for gauging
imbalance in debt to income levels
for EU member states.
The Scale of Debt in the UK Economy
UK Household Debt Relative to Disposable Incomes
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Short-term Loans
Long-term Loans
Stock of outstanding loans to households, % of households’ disposable income
• Short term loans include outstanding debt on credit cards
• Long term loans include mortgage debt
• Debt acts as a constraint on future spending power.
– Millions of people in the UK are saddled with many thousands
of pounds of debt and the interest payments on this debt
reduces their effective disposable income
• The commercial banks also have high debt and this restricts their
ability to make fresh loans to businesses and households who
want to borrow. This can limit business investment
• The economy can be at risk with a high debt-to-GDP ratio
– If price deflation happened, falling consumer prices and
incomes would make the debt problem even worse in real
terms
– When nominal interest rates rise, many households –
especially mortgage payers - are at risk and can struggle to
meet repayments. This could cause a slowdown or a possible
recession in the housing market.
Consequences of Debt for an economy such as the UK
Aggregate Demand
EdExcel AS Economics 2.2.1

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Aggregate demand

  • 1. Aggregate Demand EdExcel AS Economics 2.2.1
  • 2. Meaning and Measurement of Aggregate Demand • Aggregate Demand (AD) = – Total level of planned real expenditure on the goods and services produced within a country • The components of aggregate demand are: – Household spending on goods and services (C) – Gross Fixed Capital Investment Spending (I) – Value of the Change in Stocks (Inventories) – Government Consumption (G) (Public services) – Exports of Goods and Services (X) – (minus) Imports of Goods and Services (M) • GDP (expenditure-based) is the actual value of expenditure • Changes in AD are key to understanding short-term fluctuations in a cycle e.g. recession and recovery, boom and slowdown
  • 3. Components of UK Aggregate Demand 2007-2015 Source: HM-Treasury Databank Consumption (C) Government Spending (G) Investment (I) Exports (X) Imports (M) Year Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent 2007 2.8 1.2 5.3 -2.1 -0.8 2008 -0.5 2.0 -4.7 1.6 -1.8 2009 -3.3 1.2 -14.4 -8.2 -9.8 2010 0.5 0.0 5.9 6.2 8.7 2011 -0.1 0.0 2.3 5.6 1.0 2012 1.5 2.3 0.7 0.7 3.1 2013 1.7 -0.3 3.4 1.5 1.4 2014 2.6 1.6 8.6 0.5 2.4 2015
  • 4. The Relative Importance of Components of AD Source: HM-Treasury Databank Consumption (C) Government Spending (G) Investment (I) Exports (X) Imports (M) Year £m £m £m £m £m 2007 1021 326 294 477 538 2008 1016 333 281 485 528 2009 982 337 240 445 476 2010 987 337 254 472 518 2011 985 337 260 499 523 2012 1000 345 262 502 539 2013 1018 344 271 510 547 2014 1044 349 294 512 560 2015 Consumption is far and away the biggest component of AD
  • 5. The Aggregate Demand Curve (AD) General Price Level Real GDP AD = C+I+G+(X-M) GPL1 Y1Y2 GPL2 GPL3 Y3 A rise in the price level causes a contraction of AD
  • 6. The Aggregate Demand Curve (AD) General Price Level Real GDP AD = C+I+G+(X-M) GPL1 Y1Y2 GPL2 GPL3 Y3 A rise in the price level causes a contraction of AD A fall in the price level causes an expansion of AD
  • 7. Understanding why the AD Curve Slopes Downwards Falling real incomes • As the price level rises, the real value of income falls and consumers are less able to buy what they want or need – this is known as the real balance effect Balance of trade • A persistent rise in the price of level of Country X could make foreign-produced goods and services cheaper, causing a fall in exports and a rise in imports Interest rate effect • If the price level rises, this causes inflation and an increase in demand for money and a possible rise in interest rates on loans which then has a deflationary effect on consumer and business demand
  • 8. Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve (AD) General Price Level Real GDP AD1 GPL1 Y1 AD2 Y2 AD3 AD1 – AD2: Outward shift – will raise national output at all price levels
  • 9. Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve (AD) General Price Level Real GDP AD1 GPL1 Y1 AD2 Y2 AD3 Y3 AD1 – AD2: Outward shift – will raise national output at all price levels AD1 – AD3: Inward shift – will reduce national output at all price levels
  • 10. Examples of Causes of Shifts in Aggregate Demand Fall in AD Fall in exports Cut in government spending Higher interest rates Decline in household wealth Increase in AD Depreciation of the exchange rate Cuts in direct and indirect taxes Increase in house prices Expansion of supply of credit + lower interest rates
  • 11. Changes to Monetary Policy • Changes in official monetary policy interest rates • Change in the supply of money and credit • Change in the value of a country’s exchange rate Changes to Government Fiscal Policy • Changes in the level of direct / indirect taxes • Changes in government (state) spending • Changes in government (fiscal) borrowing Business and Consumer confidence • Planned capital investment spending by businesses • Consumer confidence and retail spending Focus on Key Causes of Shifts in Aggregate Demand
  • 12. External Shocks to Aggregate Demand Many unexpected events cause changes in demand, output and employment. These events are called external “shocks”. A large rise or fall in the value of the exchange rate A recession, slowdown or boom in one or more of a nation’s key trading partner countries A slump in the housing market / construction sector of a country An event such as the Global Financial Crisis which caused a fall in the supply of credit available to businesses and households A large change in commodity prices for a country that is a commodity exporter
  • 13. Exports of Goods and Services (X) Relative Prices of exports in World Markets The exchange rate – a stronger currency makes exports more expensive Non-Price Demand Factors e.g. Design and Branding Strength of Aggregate Demand in Key Export Markets Exports are goods and services sold to other countries. Exports are an injection into a nation’s circular flow of income and spending Many factors affect the level of demand for a nation’s exports – some of these are shown on the left
  • 14. The Net Trade Balance (X-M) and Aggregate Demand The net trade balance is measured the value of exported goods and services minus the value of imported products A trade surplus means that X>M – aggregate demand will increase A trade deficit means that M>X – aggregate demand will fall If X=M, then the trade balance is zero, external trade will have a neutral effect on AD 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TradebalanceinbillionU.S.dollars Balance of Trade for China 2000-2014
  • 15. • Public sector debt is owed by central and local government and by public (state-owned) corporations – Debts owed by state-owned banks are included in national debt • Private sector debt is owed by private businesses and households. – Companies may have borrowed to finance investment (corporate sector debt) – Households have loans for example credit card debt and mortgages on properties. • Financial debt is also part of the private sector – this is the outstanding (unpaid) debts of banks and financial corporations - for example the level of bad debts on loans to businesses and to the housing market Public and Private Sector Debt
  • 16. • In the spring of 2013, household and non-financial firms’ debt amounted to 208% of UK GDP – down to levels last seen in mid- 2007, but significantly higher than they were a decade ago (170pc of GDP) and 15 years ago (128pc of GDP). • The UK private debt/GDP ratio is high by historical and international standards, and far above the 160% level used by the EU Commission as a threshold for gauging imbalance in debt to income levels for EU member states. The Scale of Debt in the UK Economy
  • 17. UK Household Debt Relative to Disposable Incomes 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Short-term Loans Long-term Loans Stock of outstanding loans to households, % of households’ disposable income • Short term loans include outstanding debt on credit cards • Long term loans include mortgage debt
  • 18. • Debt acts as a constraint on future spending power. – Millions of people in the UK are saddled with many thousands of pounds of debt and the interest payments on this debt reduces their effective disposable income • The commercial banks also have high debt and this restricts their ability to make fresh loans to businesses and households who want to borrow. This can limit business investment • The economy can be at risk with a high debt-to-GDP ratio – If price deflation happened, falling consumer prices and incomes would make the debt problem even worse in real terms – When nominal interest rates rise, many households – especially mortgage payers - are at risk and can struggle to meet repayments. This could cause a slowdown or a possible recession in the housing market. Consequences of Debt for an economy such as the UK
  • 19. Aggregate Demand EdExcel AS Economics 2.2.1
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