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VIEWPOINT
• From 2010 to 2015 approximately 2.5 million sq. ft. was absorbed in the CBD, reflecting
43 relocations from the suburbs.
• The West Loop gained 46% of the total space taken by tenants who relocated to the CBD
from the suburbs, with River North absorbing 31% in the time frame. Meanwhile, 45% of
the companies that relocated to the CBD vacated the North Suburban submarket.
• Even though downtown is the heart of the metro area’s economic activity, the suburbs
have a much larger employment footprint. The suburban workforce is about 3 million,
nearly four times that of the city.
• According to CBRE Research, talent trumps cost for occupiers. A survey of 229 corporate
real estate executives showed that 57% of the respondents see employee attraction and
retention driving workplace strategy, while 44% see cost escalation as a leading challenge.
• The cost of real estate is much higher in the CBD than in the suburban market—68%
higher in average asking gross rent.
• Relocating to the CBD from the suburbs is typically associated with a desire for
densification, better recruitment and retention, trophy office space and access to a larger
labor supply.
• Staying in the suburbs is associated with a focus on lower real estate costs, cheaper and
more experienced labor, and office requirements related to research campuses or lab
space.
Numerous companies are relocating their headquarters to downtown Chicago. While
the decision is viable for some, it doesn’t make sense for all firms. Here we explore
the current trend and the main drivers for the business decision to move or stay put.
You can always
go…downtown but does
it always make sense?
The urban migration paradigm
April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 1
Matthew Walaszek
Senior Research Analyst, Office
CHICAGO OFFICE
VIEWPOINT
April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 2
CHICAGO OFFICE
Figure 1: Relocations to the CBD from the Suburbs 2010 2015 and % of Suburban Transaction Volume 10K SF+
2%
3%
16%
5%
1%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sq.Ft.(000s)
Suburban to CBD Relocation Volume % of Suburban Transaction Volume
Average CBD relocations out of
total transaction volume in suburbs (6%)
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
VIEWPOINT
1
Calculations by TICAS on data from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 3
CHICAGO OFFICE
River North
48%
East Loop
20%
Central Loop
16%
West Loop
14%
N Michigan Ave
2%
North Suburban
45.1%
Northwest
Suburbs
24.7%
E/W Tollway
25.9%
O'Hare
3.0%
South Suburbs
1.2%
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
Figure 3: Breakdown of Transaction Volume (Sq. Ft.) by Submarket Vacated 2010 2015
© 2016 CBRE, Inc. |
Figure 2: Breakdown of Transaction Volume (Sq. Ft.) by Submarket, Suburban to CBD Relocations 2010 2015
West Loop
45.9%
River North
31.3%
East Loop
11.8%
Central Loop
10.2%
NMA
0.8%
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
VIEWPOINT
April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 4
CHICAGO OFFICE
Category Millennials (%) Gen Xers (%) Baby Boomers (%)
Walkability 54 45 49
Space between neighbors 50 57 57
Shopping and entertainment 44 36 43
Convenient public transit 39 25 29
Figure 4: Generation Comparison—Preferences
Percentage of respondents indicating "top" or "high" priority, analyzed by major group.
Source: America in 2015: A ULI Survey of Views on Housing, Transportation, and Community, Q2 2015.
Figure 5: Labor Pool Breakdown—West Loop vs. Suburban Markets
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
West Loop Oak Brook O'Hare Lake Cook Schaumburg
Millions
Total Population Population 18 To 34 Population 35 To 54 HH Earning $75K & Up Prof/Sci/Tech/Admin*
*Residents working in Professional/Science/Technology/Admin/Information-related industries
Source: CBRE, Q4 2015.
VIEWPOINT
April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 5
CHICAGO OFFICE
0
1
2
3
4
City Population Suburban Population
Millions
Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64
13%
14%
13%
12%
11%
12%
15%
19%
Figure 6: City vs. Suburban Population Breakdown by Age (With % of the Total Population)
Source: Nielsen, Q4 2015.
VIEWPOINT
April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 6
CHICAGO OFFICE
Pharma &
Healthcare
31%
Financial Services
24%
Telecommunication
s
16%
Insurance Related
15%
Wholesale Trade
14%
Suburban
Market
Figure 7: Occupier Industry Breakdown—Top 5 by Sq. Ft., Suburbs vs. CBD
Financial Services
36%
Legal Services
29%
Information & Tech
14%
Insurance Related
14%
Advertising &
Related Services
7%
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
36.79
21.92
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
CBD Suburban
Asking Rent
($/SF)
Figure 8: Average Asking Gross Rent–CBD vs. Suburban Market
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
CBD
Market
VIEWPOINT







April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 7
CHICAGO OFFICE
VIEWPOINT
April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 8
CHICAGO OFFICE
Figure 9: Needs-Based Comparison–Relocate to CBD vs. Stay in Suburban Market
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy,
we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and
completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be
reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.
VIEWPOINT CHICAGO OFFICE

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Urban Migration Viewpoint_Apr 2016

  • 1. VIEWPOINT • From 2010 to 2015 approximately 2.5 million sq. ft. was absorbed in the CBD, reflecting 43 relocations from the suburbs. • The West Loop gained 46% of the total space taken by tenants who relocated to the CBD from the suburbs, with River North absorbing 31% in the time frame. Meanwhile, 45% of the companies that relocated to the CBD vacated the North Suburban submarket. • Even though downtown is the heart of the metro area’s economic activity, the suburbs have a much larger employment footprint. The suburban workforce is about 3 million, nearly four times that of the city. • According to CBRE Research, talent trumps cost for occupiers. A survey of 229 corporate real estate executives showed that 57% of the respondents see employee attraction and retention driving workplace strategy, while 44% see cost escalation as a leading challenge. • The cost of real estate is much higher in the CBD than in the suburban market—68% higher in average asking gross rent. • Relocating to the CBD from the suburbs is typically associated with a desire for densification, better recruitment and retention, trophy office space and access to a larger labor supply. • Staying in the suburbs is associated with a focus on lower real estate costs, cheaper and more experienced labor, and office requirements related to research campuses or lab space. Numerous companies are relocating their headquarters to downtown Chicago. While the decision is viable for some, it doesn’t make sense for all firms. Here we explore the current trend and the main drivers for the business decision to move or stay put. You can always go…downtown but does it always make sense? The urban migration paradigm April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 1 Matthew Walaszek Senior Research Analyst, Office CHICAGO OFFICE
  • 2. VIEWPOINT April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 2 CHICAGO OFFICE Figure 1: Relocations to the CBD from the Suburbs 2010 2015 and % of Suburban Transaction Volume 10K SF+ 2% 3% 16% 5% 1% 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sq.Ft.(000s) Suburban to CBD Relocation Volume % of Suburban Transaction Volume Average CBD relocations out of total transaction volume in suburbs (6%) Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
  • 3. VIEWPOINT 1 Calculations by TICAS on data from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 3 CHICAGO OFFICE River North 48% East Loop 20% Central Loop 16% West Loop 14% N Michigan Ave 2% North Suburban 45.1% Northwest Suburbs 24.7% E/W Tollway 25.9% O'Hare 3.0% South Suburbs 1.2% Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015. Figure 3: Breakdown of Transaction Volume (Sq. Ft.) by Submarket Vacated 2010 2015 © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | Figure 2: Breakdown of Transaction Volume (Sq. Ft.) by Submarket, Suburban to CBD Relocations 2010 2015 West Loop 45.9% River North 31.3% East Loop 11.8% Central Loop 10.2% NMA 0.8% Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
  • 4. VIEWPOINT April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 4 CHICAGO OFFICE Category Millennials (%) Gen Xers (%) Baby Boomers (%) Walkability 54 45 49 Space between neighbors 50 57 57 Shopping and entertainment 44 36 43 Convenient public transit 39 25 29 Figure 4: Generation Comparison—Preferences Percentage of respondents indicating "top" or "high" priority, analyzed by major group. Source: America in 2015: A ULI Survey of Views on Housing, Transportation, and Community, Q2 2015. Figure 5: Labor Pool Breakdown—West Loop vs. Suburban Markets 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 West Loop Oak Brook O'Hare Lake Cook Schaumburg Millions Total Population Population 18 To 34 Population 35 To 54 HH Earning $75K & Up Prof/Sci/Tech/Admin* *Residents working in Professional/Science/Technology/Admin/Information-related industries Source: CBRE, Q4 2015.
  • 5. VIEWPOINT April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 5 CHICAGO OFFICE 0 1 2 3 4 City Population Suburban Population Millions Age 25 - 34 Age 35 - 44 Age 45 - 54 Age 55 - 64 13% 14% 13% 12% 11% 12% 15% 19% Figure 6: City vs. Suburban Population Breakdown by Age (With % of the Total Population) Source: Nielsen, Q4 2015.
  • 6. VIEWPOINT April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 6 CHICAGO OFFICE Pharma & Healthcare 31% Financial Services 24% Telecommunication s 16% Insurance Related 15% Wholesale Trade 14% Suburban Market Figure 7: Occupier Industry Breakdown—Top 5 by Sq. Ft., Suburbs vs. CBD Financial Services 36% Legal Services 29% Information & Tech 14% Insurance Related 14% Advertising & Related Services 7% Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015. 36.79 21.92 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 CBD Suburban Asking Rent ($/SF) Figure 8: Average Asking Gross Rent–CBD vs. Suburban Market Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015. CBD Market
  • 7. VIEWPOINT        April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 7 CHICAGO OFFICE
  • 8. VIEWPOINT April 2016 CBRE Research © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 8 CHICAGO OFFICE Figure 9: Needs-Based Comparison–Relocate to CBD vs. Stay in Suburban Market Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2015.
  • 9. Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. VIEWPOINT CHICAGO OFFICE
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