Tourism Research In an Age of Uncertainty

Tourism Research in an Age of Uncertainty Anna Pollock TTRA Canadian Chapter Victoria, October 16 th , 2008

A Fascination with Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Change Isn’t New ‘ Italy relies on external resources and the life of the Roman people is tossed daily on the uncertainties of sea and storm’ TACITUS

but you can dress for rain……… “ There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, or crystal balls. Collectively, these methods are known as “nutty methods”. Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as “a complete waste of time”. Predicting the Future Always Problematic..

The Challenges of Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Changes in My Life Research the Past Market Potential Scout Strategy Change Agent

Adjusting to a new reality Rabbits & Energy

We’re at the fork in the road Tourism Doesn’t Operate in Isolation!

This is Us! How do we cross the chasm?

Purpose ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

This Image represents RISK ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL NATURAL CAPITAL SOCIAL CAPITAL $ CAPITAL energy resources sinks biodiversity population aging Income disparity Changing values Labour shortages Skill shortages Migration Technology Innovation Complexity Debt Credit Economy Government funding Change Drivers

INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL NATURAL CAPITAL SOCIAL CAPITAL $ CAPITAL energy resources sinks biodiversity population aging Income disparity Changing values Labour shortages Skill shortages Migration Technology Innovation Complexity Debt Credit Economy Government funding security

Population & Wealth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Population & Wealth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Energy ,[object Object],[object Object]

Climate Change 2020 BAU CO 2 =2586 million 1990 CO 2 = 673 million 2020 Target CO 2 = 471 million 2.115 billion tons

Ecosystem Vulnerability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Capital and Credit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Something’s Wrong ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Existential Risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

We’ve planned as if we were an Industry From Machines to Systems Machines can be taken apart, and reassembled Machines are complicated but static Systems grow in complexity over time Systems can adapt Their character emerges

When we’re really a network AWARENESS AND IMAGINATION ARE EVERYTHING WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET or WHATYOU GET IS WHAT YOU SEE WHAT LENSES ARE YOU WEARING?

Here’s a network you are familiar with

We’ve planned as if we were an Industry

We’ve planned as if we were an industry when We’re Really a Swarm ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

When We’re Really a Swarm ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

It’s Not Size but Connections That Matter!

A Question For You? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

CONNECTIVITY INFORMATION and COMPLEXITY 1.5 billion Mobile phones 1.2 billion web users 108 million web sites 100 million blogs 6 billion people 9 billion people More Connectivity = More Complexity

Some Connectivity is Good ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

More Complexity = More Uncertainty

Tightly Coupled Networks are the most vulnerable ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

More Complexity = Less Resilience ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

TRENDS DRIVERS PARADIGMS Most damage comes from from what you can’t see coming at you on the surface Are our leaders asking the right questions? How do researchers help leaders ask the right questions?

What Accelerates Vulnerability? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

REsearch: Issues to Ponder ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

1. Are We Listening? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

2. Are We Modeling Reality? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

3. Developing Intelligence? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RENEWAL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Tourism Research In an Age of Uncertainty

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Tourism Research In an Age of Uncertainty