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Principles of Outbreak
Investigation
Dr Vivek Varat Pattanaik
Mentor : Dr Sandeep Kumar Panigrahi
Definitions
Outbreak: A disease outbreak is the occurrence of
cases of disease in excess of what would
normally be expected in a defined
community, geographical area or season.
An outbreak may occur in a restricted
geographical area, or may extend over
several countries. It may last for a few days
or weeks, or for several years.
Source - http://www.who.int/topics/disease_outbreaks/en
The criteria for identifying an outbreak.
The occurrence of a greater number of cases or events than normally occurs in the
same place and during the same period as in past years.
Or
A cluster of cases of the same disease occurs that can be linked to the same
exposure.
Or
A single case of disease that has never occurred before or might have a significant
implication for public health policy and practice can be judged as an outbreak that
merits investigation.
How can an
outbreak be
detected?
Health personnel
Laboratories
Official disease notification systems
Newspapers and media
Village health volunteers
Purposes of outbreak investigation
• Controlling the current outbreak.
• Prevention of future outbreaks.
• Research to provide knowledge of the disease.
• Evaluation of the effectiveness of prevention programmes.
• Evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing surveillance system.
• Training of health professionals.
• Responding to public, political, and legal concerns.
Components of an investigation team
1.Field epidemiologist
2. Disease control specialists.
3. Laboratory technicians.
4. Specialists in particular areas (e.g. veterinary medicine).
5. Public health administrators.
6. In charge of public relations and press releases.
7. Local health professionals at the district or provincial level
Steps of outbreak investigation
‘Is this a true outbreak?’
Investigators should review the number of
cases with the local health officers or hospital
staff and compare it with the number found
during the same period recorded in past
years.
Step 1:
Confirm the existence
of an outbreak
If it is confirmed as outbreak then next
related question are -
A. What is the correct diagnosis and aetiology
of the disease?
B. What can be done immediately to prevent
new cases from occurring?
Step 2:
Verify the diagnosis and
etiology
of the disease
At this stage, the investigator needs to answer
at least three questions:
1. Who should be counted as a case?
2. Are there more undetected cases in the
hospitals and in the community?
3. What are the characteristics of cases?
Step 3:
Develop an appropriate
case definition, start
case finding, and collect
information on cases
Develop an appropriate case definition
• It is important that the investigator develop a case definition, which will be
applied consistently during the investigation.
• The definition should be sensitive or adequate at the beginning, in order to
capture actual cases.
• A good case definition for investigative purposes should be specific to time
and location.
Active case finding
• The investigator must start a process called active case finding.
• The objective of active case finding is to have enough cases to analyse. At the
same time, this case finding will give a better picture of the magnitude of the
outbreak.
• This active case finding in the community also provides two more benefits:
• Control measures can be implemented if the aetiology of the disease is known and
treatable.
• Rapid environmental assessment can be started during the visit to the affected
families or villages. From the direct interview with the cases, the investigators can
develop hypotheses and implement necessary interventions immediately.
Collecting information on cases
1. Identifying information: name, hospital number, contact person,
and address of contact.
2. Demographic information: age, gender, occupation, religion,
ethnicity, area of residence, place of employment, etc.
3. Clinical information: symptoms and signs, date of onset, duration
of illness, and results of diagnostic procedures.
4. Suspected risk factors: investigators can ask for a history of
exposure to factors before the disease developed.
In this step, investigators need to answer the
following questions:
1. What are the main clinical features?
2. What population(s) is at risk?
3. What are the risk factors?
4. What are the most likely explanations of
how the outbreak began?
Step 4:
Describe the outbreak
in person, place, and
time, and hypotheses
formation
1. Clinical manifestations of cases
• Signs and symptoms of cases can be analysed in percentages and presented
in a summary table.
• In an outbreak of unknown aetiology, clinical information will help to
establish the diagnosis.
• For an outbreak in which the aetiology is already known, the investigators
still need to compare the clinical information found in the investigation with
previous knowledge. Any discrepancy between the investigation and
previous knowledge such as the attack rate, mortality rate, severity, and so
on should be carefully examined, because this might indicate that a new
strain or different specific host response is occurring.
2. Populations at risk
• Investigators should analyze the characteristics of cases by gender, age,
occupation, ethnicity, and so on. Initially this can be carried out by examining
the proportion of all cases, but the specific attack rate by age and gender will
be more useful for comparisons and hypothesis formation.
• The outbreak of Nipah encephalitis in Malaysia in early 1999
3. Location
• Investigators can calculate attack
rates of cases in different
locations.
• These can be places of residence,
places of employment, sites of
exposure, etc.
• Locations with high attack rates
often indicate the sources of
infection or contamination.
• A spot map showing the locations
of cases can give a very good idea
of the source.
4. Time
• The objective is to show the
occurrence of cases over time and
look for a pattern of occurrence.
• In general, there are two major
types of outbreaks:
• A common source
• A propagated source.
In an outbreak of infectious disease, the
investigator needs to
answer the following questions:
1. What is the aetiology of the disease?
2. What is the source of infection?
3. What is the pattern of spread?
4. What are the risk factors for an individual to get
the disease?
5. What are the determinants of the outbreak or
the factors which, when combined together, result
in the outbreak?
A hypothesis needs to be tested by an analytical
study design.The most common is a case–control
study.
Step 5:
Testing the hypotheses
by an analytic study
Example
• In May 2011, there is out break of
Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome in
Germany
• After doing first 4 steps of they
came to know cases are by Shiga
toxin-producing Escherichia coli
O104:H4 after taking meal in a
buffet.
• Similar outbreak also occurred
after 1 month again after the
buffet
• Then there arise a confusion how
to pin point which food in buffet
caused this outbreak??
Food Item RR P Value
Sprout 4.2 0.001
Gazpacho (tomato-based cold
soup)
2.4 >0.05
Carrots 2.3 >0.05
Water (bottled) 2.0 >0.05
Dip sauce (mayonnaise) 1.7 >0.05
Lettuce 1.0 >0.05
Green peppers 0.4 >0.05
Although an analytical study might be able to confirm
a hypothesis, the investigator still needs to find
environmental or other evidence to support and
explain the epidemiological evidence.
Step 6:
Environmental or other
studies to supplement
epidemiological findings
In this steps we have to compile all the evidence to
give the complete picture of the outbreaks
What evidence we have
Laboratory evidence:
Clinical evidence:
Environmental evidence
Epidemiological evidence
Step 7:
Establishing the causes
of the outbreak
Complete analysis and data interpretation:
Present the main findings with recommendations:
What can be done to control the outbreak?
How to prevent future outbreaks ?
How to improve the investigation ?
How to improve surveillance ?
Step 8:
On-site reporting to and
recommendations for
concerned authorities
In addition to on-site reporting, the investigator
should disseminate information to educate the public
health community and the general public.
The information will raise the awareness of health and
government authorities to assess their own situation
and implement measures to prevent possible
outbreaks.
Dissemination of information should occur in a timely
manner through weekly or monthly reports.
Release of important findings through the mass
media is also very useful for educating the public
Step 9:
Dissemination of
information
Finally, the investigator should follow up the
investigation by maintaining close communication
with local health authorities.
An absence of new cases for at least two incubation
periods of the infectious disease under investigation
could suggest that the outbreak is subsiding.
A good investigator should follow up on the
recommendations.
Step 10:
Follow-up to ensure
implementation
of control measures
• To Sum Up
1. Confirm the existence of Outbreak
2. Verify diagnosis and determine the etiology
3. Develop case definition & start case fining
4. Describe epidemic in time, place and person
5. Test hypothesis
6. Carry out necessary environmental epidemiological study
7. Draw conclusions
8. Report and recommend appropriate control measures
9. Communicate the Findings
10.Follow up the recommendation
The reality….
Info:
Outbreak
suspected
time
Confirmation
Form Outbreak
Control Team
Confirm Diagnosis
Site visit
Case definition
Line list
Organize Data
Descripitve
Epidemiology
Control measures
Analytic
Epidemiology
Recommendations
Report
Publication
Principles of outbreak investigation

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Principles of outbreak investigation

  • 1. Principles of Outbreak Investigation Dr Vivek Varat Pattanaik Mentor : Dr Sandeep Kumar Panigrahi
  • 3. Outbreak: A disease outbreak is the occurrence of cases of disease in excess of what would normally be expected in a defined community, geographical area or season. An outbreak may occur in a restricted geographical area, or may extend over several countries. It may last for a few days or weeks, or for several years. Source - http://www.who.int/topics/disease_outbreaks/en
  • 4. The criteria for identifying an outbreak.
  • 5. The occurrence of a greater number of cases or events than normally occurs in the same place and during the same period as in past years. Or A cluster of cases of the same disease occurs that can be linked to the same exposure. Or A single case of disease that has never occurred before or might have a significant implication for public health policy and practice can be judged as an outbreak that merits investigation.
  • 6. How can an outbreak be detected? Health personnel Laboratories Official disease notification systems Newspapers and media Village health volunteers
  • 7. Purposes of outbreak investigation
  • 8. • Controlling the current outbreak. • Prevention of future outbreaks. • Research to provide knowledge of the disease. • Evaluation of the effectiveness of prevention programmes. • Evaluation of the effectiveness of the existing surveillance system. • Training of health professionals. • Responding to public, political, and legal concerns.
  • 9. Components of an investigation team
  • 10. 1.Field epidemiologist 2. Disease control specialists. 3. Laboratory technicians. 4. Specialists in particular areas (e.g. veterinary medicine). 5. Public health administrators. 6. In charge of public relations and press releases. 7. Local health professionals at the district or provincial level
  • 11. Steps of outbreak investigation
  • 12. ‘Is this a true outbreak?’ Investigators should review the number of cases with the local health officers or hospital staff and compare it with the number found during the same period recorded in past years. Step 1: Confirm the existence of an outbreak
  • 13. If it is confirmed as outbreak then next related question are - A. What is the correct diagnosis and aetiology of the disease? B. What can be done immediately to prevent new cases from occurring? Step 2: Verify the diagnosis and etiology of the disease
  • 14. At this stage, the investigator needs to answer at least three questions: 1. Who should be counted as a case? 2. Are there more undetected cases in the hospitals and in the community? 3. What are the characteristics of cases? Step 3: Develop an appropriate case definition, start case finding, and collect information on cases
  • 15. Develop an appropriate case definition • It is important that the investigator develop a case definition, which will be applied consistently during the investigation. • The definition should be sensitive or adequate at the beginning, in order to capture actual cases. • A good case definition for investigative purposes should be specific to time and location.
  • 16. Active case finding • The investigator must start a process called active case finding. • The objective of active case finding is to have enough cases to analyse. At the same time, this case finding will give a better picture of the magnitude of the outbreak. • This active case finding in the community also provides two more benefits: • Control measures can be implemented if the aetiology of the disease is known and treatable. • Rapid environmental assessment can be started during the visit to the affected families or villages. From the direct interview with the cases, the investigators can develop hypotheses and implement necessary interventions immediately.
  • 17. Collecting information on cases 1. Identifying information: name, hospital number, contact person, and address of contact. 2. Demographic information: age, gender, occupation, religion, ethnicity, area of residence, place of employment, etc. 3. Clinical information: symptoms and signs, date of onset, duration of illness, and results of diagnostic procedures. 4. Suspected risk factors: investigators can ask for a history of exposure to factors before the disease developed.
  • 18. In this step, investigators need to answer the following questions: 1. What are the main clinical features? 2. What population(s) is at risk? 3. What are the risk factors? 4. What are the most likely explanations of how the outbreak began? Step 4: Describe the outbreak in person, place, and time, and hypotheses formation
  • 19. 1. Clinical manifestations of cases • Signs and symptoms of cases can be analysed in percentages and presented in a summary table. • In an outbreak of unknown aetiology, clinical information will help to establish the diagnosis. • For an outbreak in which the aetiology is already known, the investigators still need to compare the clinical information found in the investigation with previous knowledge. Any discrepancy between the investigation and previous knowledge such as the attack rate, mortality rate, severity, and so on should be carefully examined, because this might indicate that a new strain or different specific host response is occurring.
  • 20. 2. Populations at risk • Investigators should analyze the characteristics of cases by gender, age, occupation, ethnicity, and so on. Initially this can be carried out by examining the proportion of all cases, but the specific attack rate by age and gender will be more useful for comparisons and hypothesis formation. • The outbreak of Nipah encephalitis in Malaysia in early 1999
  • 21. 3. Location • Investigators can calculate attack rates of cases in different locations. • These can be places of residence, places of employment, sites of exposure, etc. • Locations with high attack rates often indicate the sources of infection or contamination. • A spot map showing the locations of cases can give a very good idea of the source.
  • 22. 4. Time • The objective is to show the occurrence of cases over time and look for a pattern of occurrence. • In general, there are two major types of outbreaks: • A common source • A propagated source.
  • 23. In an outbreak of infectious disease, the investigator needs to answer the following questions: 1. What is the aetiology of the disease? 2. What is the source of infection? 3. What is the pattern of spread? 4. What are the risk factors for an individual to get the disease? 5. What are the determinants of the outbreak or the factors which, when combined together, result in the outbreak? A hypothesis needs to be tested by an analytical study design.The most common is a case–control study. Step 5: Testing the hypotheses by an analytic study
  • 24. Example • In May 2011, there is out break of Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome in Germany • After doing first 4 steps of they came to know cases are by Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O104:H4 after taking meal in a buffet. • Similar outbreak also occurred after 1 month again after the buffet • Then there arise a confusion how to pin point which food in buffet caused this outbreak?? Food Item RR P Value Sprout 4.2 0.001 Gazpacho (tomato-based cold soup) 2.4 >0.05 Carrots 2.3 >0.05 Water (bottled) 2.0 >0.05 Dip sauce (mayonnaise) 1.7 >0.05 Lettuce 1.0 >0.05 Green peppers 0.4 >0.05
  • 25. Although an analytical study might be able to confirm a hypothesis, the investigator still needs to find environmental or other evidence to support and explain the epidemiological evidence. Step 6: Environmental or other studies to supplement epidemiological findings
  • 26. In this steps we have to compile all the evidence to give the complete picture of the outbreaks What evidence we have Laboratory evidence: Clinical evidence: Environmental evidence Epidemiological evidence Step 7: Establishing the causes of the outbreak
  • 27. Complete analysis and data interpretation: Present the main findings with recommendations: What can be done to control the outbreak? How to prevent future outbreaks ? How to improve the investigation ? How to improve surveillance ? Step 8: On-site reporting to and recommendations for concerned authorities
  • 28. In addition to on-site reporting, the investigator should disseminate information to educate the public health community and the general public. The information will raise the awareness of health and government authorities to assess their own situation and implement measures to prevent possible outbreaks. Dissemination of information should occur in a timely manner through weekly or monthly reports. Release of important findings through the mass media is also very useful for educating the public Step 9: Dissemination of information
  • 29. Finally, the investigator should follow up the investigation by maintaining close communication with local health authorities. An absence of new cases for at least two incubation periods of the infectious disease under investigation could suggest that the outbreak is subsiding. A good investigator should follow up on the recommendations. Step 10: Follow-up to ensure implementation of control measures
  • 30. • To Sum Up 1. Confirm the existence of Outbreak 2. Verify diagnosis and determine the etiology 3. Develop case definition & start case fining 4. Describe epidemic in time, place and person 5. Test hypothesis 6. Carry out necessary environmental epidemiological study 7. Draw conclusions 8. Report and recommend appropriate control measures 9. Communicate the Findings 10.Follow up the recommendation
  • 31. The reality…. Info: Outbreak suspected time Confirmation Form Outbreak Control Team Confirm Diagnosis Site visit Case definition Line list Organize Data Descripitve Epidemiology Control measures Analytic Epidemiology Recommendations Report Publication
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