Pestforecast: Surveillance and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases in Vietnam

Pestforecast
Surveillance and early warning systems for
climate sensitive diseases in Vietnam
Hu Suk Lee (DVM, PhD)
Post-doc scientist
CCAFS annual meeting in Southeast Asia
Hanoi, Vietnam, 30 November 2016

Pestforecast
Key research issues
•Develop and disseminate maps of hotspots of
climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs)
•Develop a real-time prediction system for
CSDs
•Develop weather-based forecasting for
aflatoxin mitigation in Vietnam
Partners
•MARD (DAH and PPD) & MOH (GDPM)
•NIVR (veterinary institute): animal diseases
•PPRI (plant institute): plant diseases
•Hanoi School of Public health and NIHE:
human diseases
•IMHEN (MONRE): climate data
•Provincial DARDs and DOHs
Japanese encephalitis
- A vector-borne virus disease
- 3 billion people live in endemic areas
- Fatality rate reached 60% in humans
- Pigs are the main amplifying hosts
Leptospirosis
- A bacterial disease, outbreak is associated
with heavy rainfall
- Fatality rate from 5% to 30% in humans
- Rodents, pigs, horses, dogs and
sheep/goats
are the common reservoirs.
Aflatoxin-associated diseases
- Toxin produced by Aspergillus spp.
- Fungi infect crops and animals via feed
- Responsible for around 1 in 4 human cases
of live cancer

Met-Data
Model
development:
Forecast, mapping
Decision
support
tools
Notification
to farmers
Early Warning and Forecasting System concept
Climate sensitive diseases data
- Surveillance system
- Field survey
Responses
-Vaccination
-Harvesting
-Selling
-…
Adapted from ICRAF (2014)
Public and Farmers

Sampling areas (NIVR and PPRI)
• Swine urine/sera samples from 5
provinces (excluding Dong Nai)
- NIVR (target samples: 1,925)
- 385 samples / province
- Slaughterhouses
- JE, Lepto(sera)&AFM1(urine)
- sampling information &
Questionnaires (252 people)
• Maize samples from 6 provinces
- PPRI (target samples: 2,310)
- 385 samples / province
- Aflatoxin B1
- sampling information &
Questionnaires (551 people)
Except for NIVR
*Sample size (each province): 50% prevalence,
95% CI and precision 5%

Some outputs
Systematic literature review of zoonotic
diseases and aflatoxins in Vietnam

Annual incidence rates for lepto and VE in humans
*Previous study showed that 17~71% of VE were caused by JE in Vietnam

Seasonality of VE in humans between 2004 and 2013
(Dien Bien, Hoa Binh, Lai Chau and Son La)
*Previous study showed that 17~71% of VE were caused by JE in Vietnam
4-5 times
higher than
Feb

JE results in pigs - NIVR
JE OD
< 0.2 --> Negative
0.2-0.4 --> Suspected
> 0.4 --> Positive

Samples positive with Leptospires
Province Samples Positive % Pos
Hanoi 390 37 9.49
Daklak 385 27 7.01
Nghe An 380 30 7.89
Son La 384 27 7.03
An Giang 420 36 8.57
Total 1,959 157 8.01
Leptospirosis results in pigs - NIVRLeptospirosis results in pigs - NIVR

Aflatoxin B1 in Maize - PPRI
Max. acceptable level for aflatoxins in each
country
5 ppb - Vietnam (human) , (animal feed X)
20 ppb - USA
4 ppb – EU
10 ppb – Kenya
Province
(Hu:An)
Tested
samples
Positive
samples
(>5 ppb)
Positive %
With 95% CI
Positive
samples
(>20 ppb)
Positive %
With 95% CI
Hanoi
(13:384)
397
(327)
163 41.06
(36.18-46.07)
15 3.78
(2.13-6.16)
An Giang
(131:268)
400
(197)
64 16
(12.5-20.0)
3 0.75
(0.15-2.18)
Dak Lak
(184:195)
389
(336)
13 3.34
(1.79-5.65)
0 0
Dong Nai
(194:201)
395
(356)
157 39.75
(34.89-44.76)
7 1.77
(0.72-3.62)
Nghe An
(3:391)
394
(229)
87 62.69
(57.70-67.48)
12 3.05
(1.58-5.26)
Son La
(0:395)
395
(334)
203 51.39
(46.34-56.42)
4 1.01
(0.28-2.57)
Total 2,370
(1,779)
687 28.99
(27.17-30.86)
41 1.73
(1.24-2.34)

Research contributions
• New knowledge on CSDs pattern & climate changes
- Human diseases associated with climate variability from secondary
data (JE, shigellosis, dengue and malaria)
- New data on animal and plant diseases (JE, leptospirosis and
aflatoxins) at national scale for the first time in Vietnam
• Event-based surveillance and response to CSDs are
established and functional
- To raise awareness of CSDs among farmers and farm-related
workers based on our findings (such as risk maps and prediction
models)
• One Health research partnership is established
- Trans-disciplinary team working with other stakeholders at local level
to work on animal and plant pests, ensuring the application of tools
developed to reduce/prevent the CSDs in the future

Main knowledge-related challenges
• Surveillance and early warning systems tools
- Reliability of risk maps/prediction models for application
• Lack of national data & pushed back on the priority
list
- Human, animal, plant disease data: lack of diagnostic methods
and under-reporting
- Climate sensitive diseases (mainly zoonotic diseases) vs. human
diseases: lack of awareness among farmers and policy
makers
• Limited recourses and awareness to implement tools
- Most farmers are smallholders and poor, little investment for
preventive measures (such JE vaccination) in humans/animals

Future plans for 2017
• Building a website: update on the progress of Pestforecast (wiki)
• Master student (VNUA): aflatoxin B1 in Maize
• Conference of research workers in animal diseases (CRWAD)
in Chicago: Dec 5 2016 -> presentation (lepto in pig)
• Developing more manuscripts using secondary datasets as well
as Pestforecast data: prediction models and risk maps
• Sampling during the rainy season in Vietnam for 2017
• CCAFS dairy production project in Indonesia (~ April 2019)
- Partner: Wageningen University (Funded by Dutch government)
- Reduce greenhouse gas emission from dairy cattle
- Development of prediction models/risk maps on climate sensitive diseases

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