The document discusses the divergence between the "new economy" (non-financial services sectors) and the "old economy" (commodity, industry, finance, construction) as the main problem for the world economy today. The trajectories of the new and old economies were similar in 2000-2010 but have since diverged, with the new economy continuing to grow while the old economy struggles. This divergence explains issues like high debt and unemployment in developed countries that rely more on the old economy. Monetary and fiscal policies have aimed to support the failing old economy for social reasons, but this is not a long-term solution.
Global Macro-economics, Trends, Portfolio ImplicationsNikunj Sanghvi
My presentation to the Bombay Chartered Accountants' Society International Economic Study Circle on Global macro-economics, trends, portfolio implications
Aug 7th 2013
Mumbai, India
The document discusses why global economies have become increasingly dependent on central bank monetary stimulus to boost economic growth. It argues that a variety of imbalances, such as globalization, debt levels, environmental regulations, and aging populations, have reduced the productivity of capital. To counteract these imbalances, governments and central banks have lowered interest rates, enacted quantitative easing programs, and reduced banking regulations to increase the amount of money and credit in the economy. However, relying too heavily on monetary policy to stimulate growth risks creating larger economic distortions over the long run. Addressing the underlying imbalances through productive economic and social policies could help reduce the need for continual monetary stimulus.
The document analyzes the size and growth of the US government and argues that it has become too big to succeed in accomplishing its missions effectively. It notes that after spending trillions on stimulus and bailouts, the economy still faces problems, and the super committee failed to significantly reduce deficits. The size and complexity of the three branches of government and federal workforce are outlined. The article concludes that while continued growth presents management challenges, a transformation is needed to simplify processes and shift to a more efficient management model in order to establish a new sustainable size and order.
1) Recessions are caused by a decline in overall demand for goods and services, both consumption and investment. This can be triggered by various events like the end of wars, rising commodity prices, or increased interest rates.
2) Governments can help cure recessions through stimulus packages and automatic increases in benefits to boost demand. However, governments often underestimate the decline in demand and are slow to respond.
3) While recessions cannot be fully prevented due to uncertain economic conditions, governments should aim to reduce the impact of large shocks through financial regulation to limit high leverage and risky lending practices.
A Slow Economy, the Middle Class and New IdeasGene Balas, CFA
This document discusses the state of the US economy and middle class. It notes that median household income has fallen in recent decades while income inequality has risen. This has squeezed the middle class, reducing their spending power and constraining economic growth. Low productivity growth has also held down wages. To revive the economy, the document argues for policies that boost innovation, education, and worker training to increase productivity and wages over the long run.
This document provides an overview of inflation and how it is measured. It discusses what inflation is, how it is defined and measured through indexes like the CPI. It outlines some of the key causes of inflation like demand-pull and cost-push factors. It also discusses how inflation affects different groups like creditors, debtors and those on fixed incomes. The document explains how central banks like the Federal Reserve use interest rates to try and control inflation.
This document provides an introduction to macroeconomics. It defines macroeconomics, discusses key questions in the field, and outlines different schools of thought regarding the appropriate role of government intervention in the economy. The document also summarizes different economic goals and debates around activist versus non-activist policy approaches.
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
Global Macro-economics, Trends, Portfolio ImplicationsNikunj Sanghvi
My presentation to the Bombay Chartered Accountants' Society International Economic Study Circle on Global macro-economics, trends, portfolio implications
Aug 7th 2013
Mumbai, India
The document discusses why global economies have become increasingly dependent on central bank monetary stimulus to boost economic growth. It argues that a variety of imbalances, such as globalization, debt levels, environmental regulations, and aging populations, have reduced the productivity of capital. To counteract these imbalances, governments and central banks have lowered interest rates, enacted quantitative easing programs, and reduced banking regulations to increase the amount of money and credit in the economy. However, relying too heavily on monetary policy to stimulate growth risks creating larger economic distortions over the long run. Addressing the underlying imbalances through productive economic and social policies could help reduce the need for continual monetary stimulus.
The document analyzes the size and growth of the US government and argues that it has become too big to succeed in accomplishing its missions effectively. It notes that after spending trillions on stimulus and bailouts, the economy still faces problems, and the super committee failed to significantly reduce deficits. The size and complexity of the three branches of government and federal workforce are outlined. The article concludes that while continued growth presents management challenges, a transformation is needed to simplify processes and shift to a more efficient management model in order to establish a new sustainable size and order.
1) Recessions are caused by a decline in overall demand for goods and services, both consumption and investment. This can be triggered by various events like the end of wars, rising commodity prices, or increased interest rates.
2) Governments can help cure recessions through stimulus packages and automatic increases in benefits to boost demand. However, governments often underestimate the decline in demand and are slow to respond.
3) While recessions cannot be fully prevented due to uncertain economic conditions, governments should aim to reduce the impact of large shocks through financial regulation to limit high leverage and risky lending practices.
A Slow Economy, the Middle Class and New IdeasGene Balas, CFA
This document discusses the state of the US economy and middle class. It notes that median household income has fallen in recent decades while income inequality has risen. This has squeezed the middle class, reducing their spending power and constraining economic growth. Low productivity growth has also held down wages. To revive the economy, the document argues for policies that boost innovation, education, and worker training to increase productivity and wages over the long run.
This document provides an overview of inflation and how it is measured. It discusses what inflation is, how it is defined and measured through indexes like the CPI. It outlines some of the key causes of inflation like demand-pull and cost-push factors. It also discusses how inflation affects different groups like creditors, debtors and those on fixed incomes. The document explains how central banks like the Federal Reserve use interest rates to try and control inflation.
This document provides an introduction to macroeconomics. It defines macroeconomics, discusses key questions in the field, and outlines different schools of thought regarding the appropriate role of government intervention in the economy. The document also summarizes different economic goals and debates around activist versus non-activist policy approaches.
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook June 2012 (published May 25th)Fasanara Capital ltd
1) The document provides an investment outlook from Fasanara Capital discussing recent market movements and their views on the European sovereign debt crisis.
2) They expect further market declines are needed to motivate coordinated policy intervention, but maintain shorts as catalysts like political tensions could accelerate declines and trigger action.
3) Long-term structural issues in Europe like high unemployment and economic imbalances remain unresolved and increase the risks of scenarios like inflation, defaults or countries leaving the Euro.
The document discusses the outlook for fixed income investments following the 2008 financial crisis. It notes that government bonds performed well in 2008 due to falling interest rates and a flight to quality. However, government bonds are now expensive. There is a risk of deflation in 2009 as domestic demand falls and commodity prices decline. Central banks will need stimulus to avoid deflation. After the recession, policymakers will try to boost demand to spur inflation and prevent liquidity traps. The document recommends hedging against reflation by investing in inflation-linked bonds and bonds of countries with higher yields within the eurozone.
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
The document discusses rising consumer price inflation around the world since late 2009. It notes that India's inflation rate has risen from 7% to over 16% in the past few years. Consumer prices have also begun rising again in Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, and Turkey after declining in 2008-2009. China's inflation rate fell to -1.8% in mid-2009 but has risen since. The document suggests this widespread rise in consumer prices could pose economic risks if inflation expectations become entrenched.
Us economy - Is the recovery for real???radhikaburman
The document discusses concerns about the strength and sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery. While GDP grew in Q1 2013, other indicators show weakness in manufacturing, production, and the labor market. Job growth has been concentrated in low-wage industries, real disposable income growth is slow, and consumer sentiment has declined. The length of the recovery and signs of stress suggest the risk of a contraction is not inconceivable. Continued disinflation may keep pressure on the Fed to maintain accommodation through quantitative easing.
This file explains the sole causes but also the sole great solutions for the economic crisis. What is needed, is MORE money. Which can be reached in SIMPLE ways by means of my innovation for our money systems, mentioned and explained in my draft book being uploaded at www.scribd.com/wberendsen. It is the lowest file uploaded there.
1) The document analyzes historical data from 14 advanced economies over 140 years to identify trends leading up to financial crises. It finds that periods of high credit growth and leverage often precede crises and result in long, slow recoveries, especially when combined with high public debt.
2) Five facts are presented: advanced economies have experienced more frequent crises since the 1970s as financial sectors grew rapidly independent of the real economy; crises are deflationary and depress economic growth; unprecedented leverage in the banking sector now compared to the past; emerging markets insure against currency crises while developed markets benefit; and demographic changes may undermine long-term liquidity.
3) Five lessons recommend macroprud
Michael Knetter, Ph.D. - President of the University of Wisconsin FoundationBizTimes Media
The annual Economic Trends Event, presented by BizTimes Milwaukee, hosts a vibrant discussion between prominent Wisconsin business leaders, state representatives, and industry experts on the state of the economy. This annual event includes a macroeconomic outlook on the economy from Michael Knetter, Ph.D., the Albert O. Nicholas dean at the University of Wisconsin School of Business in Madison.
Keynesian theory of money proposes that the relationship between the quantity of money and prices is indirect and non-proportional, unlike quantity theorists. Key provisions include that the economy is unstable and the state should use tools like monetary policy; a change in the money supply causes interest rate changes which lead to changes in investment demand and nominal GDP; and Keynes identified three macroeconomic policies - monetary, fiscal, and incomes policy - that affect GDP. Specifically, monetary policy aims to decrease interest rates to boost investment via money supply increases, while fiscal policy directly increases public investment when private investment is insufficient.
There is now broad consensus among macroeconomists on key issues:
1) Monetary policy can be used to reduce economic instability by shifting the aggregate demand curve, except in a liquidity trap.
2) Fiscal and monetary policy can limit but not reduce unemployment below the natural rate.
3) Discretionary fiscal policy should be used sparingly due to lags and risk of political business cycles, while monetary policy plays the main stabilization role.
This document discusses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in controlling inflation or deflation based on the slope of the IS curve. It explains that fiscal policy will be more effective when the IS curve has a steeper slope (is less elastic) as it will allow a change in fiscal policy to more significantly impact the level of income and interest rates without crowding out private investment. It also discusses how the slope of the LM curve and positions of the IS and LM curves impact the fiscal multiplier.
The document discusses three main points:
1) Government liabilities in developed nations range from $150-250 trillion, far exceeding their ability to pay given declining taxpayer bases and rising claimants. This suggests governments will default through inflation or debt repudiation.
2) Central banks are engaging in currency debasement through balance sheet expansion, amounting to the first global, coordinated devaluation in history. Hard assets are preferable to sovereign debt in this environment.
3) Central banks have destroyed 95-97% of the purchasing power of major currencies like the US and Canadian dollars since their inceptions. Low rates have inflated asset prices divorced from cash flows, contrary to central banks' mandates for price stability
Dr. Bruce Yandle of Clemson University presents his Quarterly Economic Update paying special attention to the unemployment rate, GDP, and interest rates.
The document compares the monetary and Keynesian approaches to economic stability. The monetary (or monetarist) approach is based on the role of money in stabilizing aggregate demand, and believes that limiting government intervention and controlling the money supply are key. The Keynesian approach focuses on the role of government spending in stabilizing aggregate demand, and does not restrict government intervention. It believes fiscal policy tools like tax rates and government spending are most important for achieving economic stability, especially during downturns when suggested solutions include increasing various types of spending.
The document discusses the global debt problem and its implications for economic growth and degrowth strategies. It argues that massive debt write-downs are inevitable due to an impending economic collapse brought on by unsustainable debt levels. This collapse will result in the degrowth wanted by proponents of degrowth, but risks restoring pro-growth systems afterwards. Short-term solutions like debt forgiveness or creating non-debt money are proposed to avoid economic and social breakdown in the interim. Long-term, a dual currency system is suggested to separate money for spending and saving.
Over the past 60 years, there has been significant inflation in the United States as the price of basic goods like bread, cars, and houses have increased substantially. Inflation causes anxiety among the general public even when it is at relatively low levels. The document goes on to provide an introduction to the concept of inflation and signals that the following sections will explain what inflation is, how it is measured, and how it relates to interest rates and investments.
- The document discusses the economic impacts of the 2008 Financial Crisis on Latin America, including resilience due to commodity booms but also inflationary pressures and effects on trade balances.
- Key policy responses discussed include monetary policies like interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, and guarantees by central banks. Fiscal policy options are more limited due to shrinking surpluses in many Latin American countries.
- Changes in trade patterns are seen, including declining foreign debt for some Latin American countries but also shifts from trade surpluses to deficits for those highly dependent on external demand.
Mercado Global + Comptoir des Cotonniers collaborationMarion Gaillardet
For Spring, Summer 2014, Comptoir des Cotonniers introduced a capsule collection of women’s accessories hand-made by local artisans in Guatemala, using pure cotton and natural leather.
To realize it, Comptoir des Cotonniers worked with Mercado Global, a charity employing over three hundred craftswomen in Guatemala, aimed at promoting their self-sufficiency through business coaching and taking their wares to the international market.
The collaboration with Comptoir des Cotonniers benefited 121 craftswomen in 21 communities, who worked over 20,000 hours to create the unique items.
They are available now in Belgium, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, and the USA.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fasanara Capital | Investment Outlook June 2012 (published May 25th)Fasanara Capital ltd
1) The document provides an investment outlook from Fasanara Capital discussing recent market movements and their views on the European sovereign debt crisis.
2) They expect further market declines are needed to motivate coordinated policy intervention, but maintain shorts as catalysts like political tensions could accelerate declines and trigger action.
3) Long-term structural issues in Europe like high unemployment and economic imbalances remain unresolved and increase the risks of scenarios like inflation, defaults or countries leaving the Euro.
The document discusses the outlook for fixed income investments following the 2008 financial crisis. It notes that government bonds performed well in 2008 due to falling interest rates and a flight to quality. However, government bonds are now expensive. There is a risk of deflation in 2009 as domestic demand falls and commodity prices decline. Central banks will need stimulus to avoid deflation. After the recession, policymakers will try to boost demand to spur inflation and prevent liquidity traps. The document recommends hedging against reflation by investing in inflation-linked bonds and bonds of countries with higher yields within the eurozone.
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
The document discusses rising consumer price inflation around the world since late 2009. It notes that India's inflation rate has risen from 7% to over 16% in the past few years. Consumer prices have also begun rising again in Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, and Turkey after declining in 2008-2009. China's inflation rate fell to -1.8% in mid-2009 but has risen since. The document suggests this widespread rise in consumer prices could pose economic risks if inflation expectations become entrenched.
Us economy - Is the recovery for real???radhikaburman
The document discusses concerns about the strength and sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery. While GDP grew in Q1 2013, other indicators show weakness in manufacturing, production, and the labor market. Job growth has been concentrated in low-wage industries, real disposable income growth is slow, and consumer sentiment has declined. The length of the recovery and signs of stress suggest the risk of a contraction is not inconceivable. Continued disinflation may keep pressure on the Fed to maintain accommodation through quantitative easing.
This file explains the sole causes but also the sole great solutions for the economic crisis. What is needed, is MORE money. Which can be reached in SIMPLE ways by means of my innovation for our money systems, mentioned and explained in my draft book being uploaded at www.scribd.com/wberendsen. It is the lowest file uploaded there.
1) The document analyzes historical data from 14 advanced economies over 140 years to identify trends leading up to financial crises. It finds that periods of high credit growth and leverage often precede crises and result in long, slow recoveries, especially when combined with high public debt.
2) Five facts are presented: advanced economies have experienced more frequent crises since the 1970s as financial sectors grew rapidly independent of the real economy; crises are deflationary and depress economic growth; unprecedented leverage in the banking sector now compared to the past; emerging markets insure against currency crises while developed markets benefit; and demographic changes may undermine long-term liquidity.
3) Five lessons recommend macroprud
Michael Knetter, Ph.D. - President of the University of Wisconsin FoundationBizTimes Media
The annual Economic Trends Event, presented by BizTimes Milwaukee, hosts a vibrant discussion between prominent Wisconsin business leaders, state representatives, and industry experts on the state of the economy. This annual event includes a macroeconomic outlook on the economy from Michael Knetter, Ph.D., the Albert O. Nicholas dean at the University of Wisconsin School of Business in Madison.
Keynesian theory of money proposes that the relationship between the quantity of money and prices is indirect and non-proportional, unlike quantity theorists. Key provisions include that the economy is unstable and the state should use tools like monetary policy; a change in the money supply causes interest rate changes which lead to changes in investment demand and nominal GDP; and Keynes identified three macroeconomic policies - monetary, fiscal, and incomes policy - that affect GDP. Specifically, monetary policy aims to decrease interest rates to boost investment via money supply increases, while fiscal policy directly increases public investment when private investment is insufficient.
There is now broad consensus among macroeconomists on key issues:
1) Monetary policy can be used to reduce economic instability by shifting the aggregate demand curve, except in a liquidity trap.
2) Fiscal and monetary policy can limit but not reduce unemployment below the natural rate.
3) Discretionary fiscal policy should be used sparingly due to lags and risk of political business cycles, while monetary policy plays the main stabilization role.
This document discusses the effectiveness of fiscal policy in controlling inflation or deflation based on the slope of the IS curve. It explains that fiscal policy will be more effective when the IS curve has a steeper slope (is less elastic) as it will allow a change in fiscal policy to more significantly impact the level of income and interest rates without crowding out private investment. It also discusses how the slope of the LM curve and positions of the IS and LM curves impact the fiscal multiplier.
The document discusses three main points:
1) Government liabilities in developed nations range from $150-250 trillion, far exceeding their ability to pay given declining taxpayer bases and rising claimants. This suggests governments will default through inflation or debt repudiation.
2) Central banks are engaging in currency debasement through balance sheet expansion, amounting to the first global, coordinated devaluation in history. Hard assets are preferable to sovereign debt in this environment.
3) Central banks have destroyed 95-97% of the purchasing power of major currencies like the US and Canadian dollars since their inceptions. Low rates have inflated asset prices divorced from cash flows, contrary to central banks' mandates for price stability
Dr. Bruce Yandle of Clemson University presents his Quarterly Economic Update paying special attention to the unemployment rate, GDP, and interest rates.
The document compares the monetary and Keynesian approaches to economic stability. The monetary (or monetarist) approach is based on the role of money in stabilizing aggregate demand, and believes that limiting government intervention and controlling the money supply are key. The Keynesian approach focuses on the role of government spending in stabilizing aggregate demand, and does not restrict government intervention. It believes fiscal policy tools like tax rates and government spending are most important for achieving economic stability, especially during downturns when suggested solutions include increasing various types of spending.
The document discusses the global debt problem and its implications for economic growth and degrowth strategies. It argues that massive debt write-downs are inevitable due to an impending economic collapse brought on by unsustainable debt levels. This collapse will result in the degrowth wanted by proponents of degrowth, but risks restoring pro-growth systems afterwards. Short-term solutions like debt forgiveness or creating non-debt money are proposed to avoid economic and social breakdown in the interim. Long-term, a dual currency system is suggested to separate money for spending and saving.
Over the past 60 years, there has been significant inflation in the United States as the price of basic goods like bread, cars, and houses have increased substantially. Inflation causes anxiety among the general public even when it is at relatively low levels. The document goes on to provide an introduction to the concept of inflation and signals that the following sections will explain what inflation is, how it is measured, and how it relates to interest rates and investments.
- The document discusses the economic impacts of the 2008 Financial Crisis on Latin America, including resilience due to commodity booms but also inflationary pressures and effects on trade balances.
- Key policy responses discussed include monetary policies like interest rate cuts, liquidity injections, and guarantees by central banks. Fiscal policy options are more limited due to shrinking surpluses in many Latin American countries.
- Changes in trade patterns are seen, including declining foreign debt for some Latin American countries but also shifts from trade surpluses to deficits for those highly dependent on external demand.
Mercado Global + Comptoir des Cotonniers collaborationMarion Gaillardet
For Spring, Summer 2014, Comptoir des Cotonniers introduced a capsule collection of women’s accessories hand-made by local artisans in Guatemala, using pure cotton and natural leather.
To realize it, Comptoir des Cotonniers worked with Mercado Global, a charity employing over three hundred craftswomen in Guatemala, aimed at promoting their self-sufficiency through business coaching and taking their wares to the international market.
The collaboration with Comptoir des Cotonniers benefited 121 craftswomen in 21 communities, who worked over 20,000 hours to create the unique items.
They are available now in Belgium, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, and the USA.
Les chiffres clé de l'e-commerce en France en 2010BEDOUET David
Présentation chiffrées de l'état des lieux du e-commerce en France au premier trimestre 2010.
(sources : FEVAD, ACSEL, Oxatis, Médiamétrie et IFOP)
Les cyberacheteurs, leur comportement, les sites marchands les plus visités, les grandes tendances d'achats en ligne ainsi que le "portrait robot" des cybermarchands.
Best of 2016 Altavia Watch du Retail internationalAltavia
Le Best Of 2016 des tendances du Retail international par l'équipe Market Intelligence Lead du groupe Altavia
Six tendances structurantes identifiées :
- Alibaba vs Amazon, The Battle,
- Le paiement mobile en ébullition,
- L'éphémère, le format très tendance,
- Avec les Chatbots, une nouvelle ère s'annonce,
- L'émergence des communautés d'intérêts,
- La réalité virtuelle pour muscler l’expérience instore
This document provides an overview and analysis of Mauritius' economic environment over recent years from the perspective of a quantitative hedge fund manager. It discusses key economic indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, deficits, and debt levels. It analyzes factors influencing inflation, such as food and oil prices and currency exchange rates. Productivity and population growth are identified as the main drivers of economic growth. Money supply, interest rates, and their relationship to velocity of money and resource allocation are also examined. In summary, the document analyzes Mauritius' economic performance and identifies competitiveness and indebtedness as the main determinants of future growth.
one hedge fund manager can pocketed $ 1,3 bio (2014)!
This reminded me of a famous Wall Street joke – about a visitor to New York who admired the gorgeous yachts of the richest bankers and brokers. After gazing long and thoughtfully at these beautiful boats, the visitor asked wryly: “Where are the customers’ yachts?” Of course, the customers could not afford yachts, even though they dutifully followed the advice of their bankers and brokers.
Saying Goodbye To One Crisis and Hello To The NextEdward Hugh
- The last crisis was caused by heavily indebted societies struggling to return to growth after the crisis. This process is structural due to demographic changes, not cyclical.
- Differences in debt levels between countries like Germany and Spain can be explained by the timing of their credit-driven private consumption booms and the age of their populations.
- While the worst of the last crisis is over, future crises may be driven by population aging in countries around the world, which will impact patterns of saving, borrowing, asset prices, and sovereign debt levels. Understanding these demographic forces is key to addressing the next potential crisis.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and its potential impact on the luxury goods industry. It examines key economic regions and countries, including China, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, Germany, and the US. Overall, it predicts modest global economic growth in 2014 and recovery in many markets, which would benefit luxury goods companies, though some regions still face risks and challenges.
Deloitte 2014: Global Powers of Luxury GroupsDigitaluxe
Deloitte presents the first annual Global Powers of Luxury Goods. This report identifies the 75 largest luxury good companies around the world based on publicly available data for the fiscal year 2012.
The document summarizes a lecture on the economic challenges facing Greece. It discusses Greece's current account and budget deficits, the impact of the global financial crisis on Greece's key industries of tourism and shipping, challenges in reforming government spending and pensions, and concerns about contagion effects in other Eurozone countries with high debt levels.
From Crisis to Recovery The Causes, Course and Consequences of the Great Rece...Dr Lendy Spires
OECD Insights: From Crisis to Recovery 3 Foreword The current global economic crisis was triggered by a financial crisis caused by ever-increasing thirst for short-term profit. In addition, against a background of government support for the expansion of financial markets, many people turned a blind eye to basic issues of business ethics and regulation. We now need to rewrite the rules of finance and global business. To restore the trust that is fundamental to functioning markets, we need better regulation, better supervision, better corporate governance and better co-ordination. We also need fairer social policies and an end to the bottlenecks that block competition and innovation and hamper sustainable growth. We must also find the most productive ways for governments to exit from their massive emergency interventions once the world economy is firmly back on a growth path. Dealing with fiscal deficits and unemployment while encouraging new sources of growth will absorb policy makers’ attention in the near term, but lifting our collective sights to focus on wider issues, such as the environment and development, is a challenge we must also meet. How can we move from recession to recovery? The OECD’s strategic response involves strengthening corporate governance and doing more to combat the dark sides of globalisation, such as corruption and tax evasion. As well as correcting the mistakes of the past, we have to prepare the future. We are elaborating a “Green Growth Strategy” to guide national and international policies so that all countries can realise the potential of this new approach to growth. Our analysis shows a need for governments to take a stronger lead in fostering greener production, procurement and consumption patterns by devising clearer frameworks and ensuring that markets work properly. They should drop some costly habits too, notably subsidising fossil fuels, which would help fight climate change and save money as well.
We live in an interconnected world and geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Syria are bound to add volatility in global geopolitical environment and influence small and large economies around the world.
Further, the economic environment is undergoing an unusual shift, through unorthodox and new policy making in Japan, US and Europe.
In such a situation small sized GCC economies, which are also dependent heavily on commodity prices and transit of goods, should exercise caution, and not get swayed by the rosy pictures stock markets around the world are painting.
AnsA) When financial markets stood on the verge of collapse in th.pdfsutharbharat59
Ans:
A) When financial markets stood on the verge of collapse in the summer of 2008, two of the
worlds most important central banks, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, began
considering unorthodox policy measures. They turned to Quantitative Easing, or QE: injecting
money into the economy by purchasing assets from the private sector, in the hope of boosting
spending and staving off the threat of deflation. These were desperate measures for desperate
times.
With signs of a fragile economic recovery gathering enough momentum to reassure
policymakers in the US, the policy was expected to be wound down. But in a move that caught
commentators off guard, the Fed instead committed to continue with its existing level of asset
purchases. For the foreseeable future, at least, QE is here to stay. What began as a short-term
crisis measure has now become a key component of Anglo-American growth strategies. Its
important, then, to take stock of QE and the central role it has played within the Anglo-American
response to the financial crisis.
The way the Fed led the policy response to the financial crisis is important in two ways. First, it
reflects the extent to which the Anglo-American economies have become financialised: credit-
debt relations are pervasive throughout all facets of contemporary economic activity and there
has been a deepening, extension and deregulation of financial markets commensurate with this
development. In that context, with the increased competitiveness, scale and global integration of
financial markets intensifying the risk of financial instability, the crisis management capacities of
central banks have become increasingly important.
Second, central bank leadership of the policy response also reflects a key feature of neoliberal
political economy in practice. Despite all the rhetoric of free markets, competition and
deregulation that has been the mainstay of neoliberalism, there is a central contradiction at its
heart: neoliberalism has been extremely reliant upon the active interventions of central banks
within supposedly free markets.
The crisis has been warehoused on the expanding balance sheets of central banks, demonstrating
just how much scope for policy manoeuvre there is when governing elites want it. Government
debt and private assets, including toxic mortgage-backed securities, have been indefinitely
transferred onto central bank accounts. This strategy highlights the role of arbitrary accounting
processes, shaped by state institutions, at the heart of supposedly free market economies.
Given this room for manoeuvre, there is no doubt that a much more expansionary fiscal policy
and a progressive taxation system could have been implemented in response to the crisis, but that
response is foreclosed by the ideological confines of the prevailing neoliberal orthodoxy. Instead,
we have monetary expansion and fiscal austerity.
Incubated within the crisis conditions of the 1970s, the neoliberal revolution in the West.
This document discusses the large amounts of money governments and central banks are committing to combat the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines the goals of job retention schemes in developed countries and direct cash payments in emerging markets. While commitments total trillions of dollars globally, a relatively small portion has gone to healthcare compared to propping up large corporations and expanding government deficits, which will likely require higher future taxes or borrowing costs. The long-term consequences of taking on huge debt to address today's crisis are only beginning to be understood.
This document analyzes the real effects of different types of debt, including government, corporate, and household debt. The authors find that beyond certain thresholds, debt becomes a drag on economic growth. Specifically, their analysis of OECD countries from 1980 to 2010 finds that government debt above 85% of GDP, corporate debt above 90% of GDP, and household debt above 85% of GDP can negatively impact growth. The authors conclude that highly indebted countries need to reduce their debt levels to avoid harming long-term growth, which is made more difficult by aging populations in advanced economies.
1) The document discusses the demographic challenges facing Eastern Europe as a result of rapidly aging populations and declining birth rates.
2) These demographic shifts contributed to the debt crisis by impacting patterns of saving, borrowing, and global capital flows as countries passed through different stages of the demographic transition.
3) Unless policies are implemented to raise fertility rates and extend working lives, population aging will put significant pressure on sovereign debt and public finances, with some estimates showing debt levels rising to over 300% of GDP by 2050 in developed countries.
The world economy has twice before enjoyed a super-cycle. It may now be
experiencing its third super-cycle.
To put it in context, it is defined here as, “A period of historically high global growth,
lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment,
urbanisation and technological innovation, characterised by the emergence of large,
new economies, first seen in high catch-up growth rates across the emerging world.”
The first super-cycle took place during the second half of the 19th century, from 1870
until 1913, the eve of the First World War. At that time, the world economy witnessed
a significant step-up in its rate of growth, rising 2.7% on average per annum in
volume, or real, terms. That was a full 1% higher than the average growth rate seen
during the previous half-century. America was the big gainer, moving from the fourthlargest
to the largest economy. The second super-cycle was after the Second World
War until the early 1970s. World growth averaged a huge 5% per annum, again in
real or inflation-adjusted terms. Japan and the Asian tigers saw the biggest gains
over this time. Japan, for instance, moved from 3% to 10% of the world economy.
Similar to Les réflexions de comptoir 2 - Oct2016 (13)
Forensic Accounting, Tax Fraud and Tax Evasion in Nigeria – Review of Literatures and
Matter for Policy Consideration
Being a Retreat (Pre-Induction) Paper Presented at the Association of National Accountants of Nigeria (ANAN) House, Abuja on Tuesday March 5, 2024.
Vadhavan Port Development _ What to Expect In and Beyond (1).pdfjohnson100mee
The Vadhavan Port Development is poised to be one of the most significant infrastructure projects in India's maritime history. This deep-sea port, located in Maharashtra, promises to transform the region's economic landscape, bolster India's trade capabilities, and generate a plethora of employment opportunities. In this blog, we will delve into the various facets of the Vadhavan Port Development: what to expect in and beyond its completion, and how it stands to influence the future of India's maritime and economic sectors.
Heather Elizabeth HamoodHeather Elizabeth Hamoodheatherhamood
Heather Hamood is a Licensed Physician who enjoys playing the Violin in her spare time. In addition to helping people as a Doctor, she loves to share her passion for the violin.
1. 1
Les Réflexions de Comptoir
du Café de l’Economie
It seems that the world is going in the bad direction, at least, from an economic perspective. The high level of
debt that fuels the weak economic growth (or perhaps this is the other way around?) would be the main risk
for the world and in the end, a big financial crisis would be inevitable. This diagnosis is made by numerous
experts and is becoming the “mainstream view”.
We fully disagree. And we are tired of hearing all these analyses that rely on nothing more than fear and (bad)
intuition.
The world continues to change at a very fast pace. That’s the good news. It has always been the case since the
15th
century and there is no reason to think that this secular trend will stop soon (let’s find a cure for cancer
first!). However, this change has intensified recently with the coincidence of several events and it seems that
the legacy of this intensive period is hard to bear.
In 2016, we are left therefore with some economic agents that continue to advance but others that stay
behind. What are we talking about here? To make it short, although we can divide the economy in many parts,
we can group them into two groups: the one that we call the “new economy” (mainly non financial services
sectors) and the other one that we call the “old economy” (commodity, industry, finance, construction). At the
global level, the trajectory of these two economies has been very similar in the 2000/2010 decade but it
appears that it was just a coincidence. Now their trajectories are diverging again and this is, in our opinion,
the main problem of the world economy today.
Thus, the main problem is NOT the weak economic growth worldwide, the problem is the weakness of the
“old economy” all around the world. And the countries in which the “old economy” is important suffer the
most whilst the countries that are more geared towards the “new economy” continue to grow.
The “top down analysis” is dying with the rise of this divergence. If we look at France, where citizens like to
moan, to complain about what is bad, where we can find experts saying “social security charges are too high”
we can clearly see the divergence between the new and the old economy. We show below the dynamic of the
employment, split into industry and services as a proxy of the new and old economy. The message is crystal
clear: the problem of the French economy is the weight of the underperforming old economy.
Source: Bloomberg
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
France - Services
France - Industry
US Total
Base 100
= Jan.00
Employment: France vs. US
2. 2
The debt problem is not universal; it concerns developed countries first of all. Knowing that the industry sector
is more capital intensive by nature than the services sector and knowing that, by definition, a debt is a legacy,
we understand very well why the debt problem is without any surprise related to the old economy in the old
world.
How did we get there? Our understanding is that monetary and budgetary authorities in the developed world
have not accepted to see the collapse of the old economy. We mean that authorities are sensitive to the
social cost of the technology cycle. In other words, because the social well-being of a nation is the #1
objective (in economic terms this notion is called “minimizing the unemployment rate”) central banks have
to lower rates and budget policies have to be expansive to support the failing parts of the economy.
That’s a key point.
Experts say “monetary policy does not work”. The fact is that addressing the weakness of an old factory by
lowering its funding cost will for sure bring limited results in the end. Everybody understands that. The old
factory needs a stronger order book and decreasing interest rates from 2% to 0% will not change dramatically
its fate.
So why interest rates are so low today? 1) because the old economy is in a deflationary mode and 2) the social
cost of letting it collapsing is too high for governments. The policies that address the old economy are not very
efficient but it has to be seen as a strategy to save time.
Also, from this perspective, the level of debt in developed countries can be seen as an indicator mixing the
weight of the old economy, the efficiency of this old economy and the willingness of the government to
support this falling economy.
Source: Bloomberg
The question of the inflation rate is not important. Inflation is a consequence, not a cause. The above chart
reflects the two economies story. The services economy is back to trend so inflation in the services sector is
back to trend. The old economy is in a distressed situation so inflation in the old economy is flirting with
negative territory.
We understand here that there are two possibilities to see inflation becoming a genuine threat: 1) the new
economy becomes so strong that its inflation rate overshoots or 2) the old economy stabilizes, escapes the
deflationary zone and its inflation rate recovers towards 1%.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Goods ex
Food&Energy
Services ex-
Energy
Inflation rate in the US
3. 3
The equity market is telling us nicely this story. Looking at the relative performance of the Nasdaq against the
FTSEMIB index (the Italian equity index) the natural human reaction would be to argue that “the ratio is too
high, trees cannot grow to the sky, there is big risk of reversal”. The reality is that if this ratio is high, it is
simply because the profits of the Nasdaq have grown far faster than the profits of the FTSEMIB. The Nasdaq is
made of companies that will rule the world tomorrow whilst the two biggest listed Italian companies are Enel
and ENI.
Source: Bloomberg
So make your choice: do you want to be the shareholder of Google and Facebook or do you want to be the co-
shareholder (with the Italian Ministry for the Economy and Finance) of companies that produce electricity and
oil?
We do not know if trees can reach the sky but we think that these companies of the new economy can bring us
very high in the sky.
In sum, there is no anomaly to see on one side the Nasdaq index at an all time high, and on the other side,
high debt and high unemployment in the most inefficient parts of the old developed world. There is no
contradiction here but two different trajectories and public intervention to reduce this divergence.
We stop here as we are neither journalist, nor writer and we do not pretend we have an idea on everything.
Economic sciences are extremely complex so our goal here was just to offer another angle of thinking
regarding the “global growth analysis”. Things are never binary, the mainstream view is not necessarily the
correct view.
Tristan Abet
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Base 100
= Mar.00
Nasdaq / FTSEMIB ratio
the anomaly in history
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