Future of food - An initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland

futureagenda.org
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix
Energy
Food
Government
Loyalty
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Health
Learning
1
Prof.Wayne Bryden - Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland
The Future of Food
The massive increase in the human population that has occurred over the last century is
precipitating a cascade of environmental, economic, political and cultural changes that have
far-reaching implications for the provision of an adequate global food supply.
Increasing Competition
for Grains
Changes in population
and cuisine have led to
a tremendous rise in the
demand for animal-source
protein. The competition
between livestock and
humans for grains and
other high quality plant
foods, whether real or
perceived, is recognised as
a major challenge. This has
become more complicated
with the diversion of grain to
the production of biofuel.
Food is fundamental for human existence
and health but many of the world’s
inhabitants experience ongoing hunger. For
some this is due to drought, others war and
for many it is a lack of money to buy food.
The United Nations, Food and Agriculture
Organization estimates that 850 million
people worldwide are hungry and a greater
number suffer from nutrient deficiencies.
Approximately one billion people have
inadequate nutrient intake, others excessive
calorie intake. Obesity has become an
epidemic in developed countries, while in
some developing societies the double burden
of nutrient deficiency and obesity is apparent.
The challenge of preventing hunger and
malnutrition will become even greater as the
global population grows from the current 7
billion people to nearly 10 billion by 2050.
Not only is the global population increasing,
we are living longer and becoming more
affluent.As incomes increase, diets become
more energy-dense and meat becomes a
larger proportion of the diet.These changes
in population and cuisine have led to a
tremendous rise in the demand for animal-
source protein.The competition between
livestock and humans for grains and other
high quality plant foods, whether real or
perceived, is recognised as a major challenge.
This has become more complicated with the
diversion of grain to the production of biofuel.
For many years there has been an ongoing
debate about the benefit or otherwise of
animal-source foods, especially red meat
consumption. In the past, claims of the
detrimental effect of animal-sourced foods
on human health have been made without
rigorous scientific investigation. There is no
doubt, however, that animal source foods,
including lean meat, fish, poultry, eggs and
milk, are an excellent source of protein and
micronutrients. Fish can be added to this list
but wild fisheries are rapidly being depleted.
It should not be forgotten that humans
evolved as ‘meat eaters’. It is unlikely that we
will lose our appetite for meat but we must
curb it. In many instances, the mechanism
that allows impoverished families to improve
their income and wellbeing is access to
livestock or poultry.
Whatever diet we choose in the future
our food will need to be produced more
efficiently. Increased agricultural productivity
must come from a reduced land area and
The Global Challenge
ng
es
mmerce
nnectivity
ta
ucation
Energy
Food
Government
Loyalty
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Health
Learning

2
More Efficient Production
Our food will need to be
produced more efficient.
Increased agricultural
productivity must come from
a reduced land area and
resource base.
Benefits from Globalisation
While globalisation may
create opportunities and
increase food distribution the
benefits predominantly flow
to those with a developed
and secure food supply.
Second Green Revolution
Another “Green Revolution”
is required but today’s
revolution must be different
to overcome existing
environmental, financial
and societal constraints.
It is no longer possible or
responsible to use unlimited
water and chemical inputs to
increase production.
resource base. Arable land continues to be
lost due to soil degradation and urbanisation.
We will need to be less dependent on
resources that are becoming scarce, like
arable land and water, or more costly, like
energy and petrochemical-based inputs,
including fertilizers. Some would argue that
it is how we manage the nexus between
food, water and energy that is our biggest
challenge for global food security.
Conversely, the environmental impact
of agriculture should not be forgotten.
There is no doubt that agriculture exerts
considerable pressure on water supplies,
especially when irrigation is used. What
form of energy will agriculture use in the
future to produce, process and transport our
food? The impact of agriculture on plant
and animal biodiversity and other ecosystem
services also must be addressed. Pollination
of crops by bees is an integral component of
agricultural production. Any disruption to this
ecosystem service could have devastating
consequences for food production.
Climate change will accentuate the
challenges identified above. Pest and
disease problems of plants and animals
are likely to increase partly in response
to climate change. Consensus exists
regarding impacts of agricultural production,
processing and distribution of food on
global climate change. A significant
proportion of anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gasses come from agriculture
and these emissions need to
be reduced.
Just as the climate system is global, so is our
food system. While globalisation may create
opportunities and increase food distribution
the benefits predominantly flow to those
with a developed and secure food supply.
Government subsidies, import restrictions
and food safety legislation all mitigate
against an equitable distribution and pricing
of food. In some situations this will lead to
civil unrest.
Options and Possibilities
ng
es
mmerce
nnectivity
ta
ucation
Energy
Food
Government
Loyalty
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Health
Learning
In developing countries where many of the
population exist as subsistence farmers the
food system is relatively straight forward.
In contrast to developed economies where
the food system or agricultural supply chain
includes all aspects of crop and animal
production, aquaculture, processing, storage,
and distribution of food products through
the wholesale and retail systems. More
opportunities exist to guard against adversity
and to increase productivity when the food
system is complex and not reliant on a few
food staples.
Food production must increase substantially
but over the next decade both systems must
cope with more severe climate events (2014
was the hottest year on record) and increased
globalisation as more free trade agreements
are signed.The increased amount of food
required will need to be produced with finite
water supplies on existing areas of arable
land.There is general agreement that another
“Green Revolution” is required but today’s
revolution must be different to overcome
existing environmental, financial and
societal constraints. It is no longer possible
or responsible to use unlimited water and
chemical inputs to increase production.
Other approaches to food production and
processing must be found that use existing
and new technologies in conjunction
with appropriate social policies that are
sustainable. Policies must ensure conservation
of global biodiversity and animal welfare.The
Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and
Climate Change identified seven critical areas
for the transition to a sustainable global
food system;
1. Integrate food security and sustainable
agriculture into global and national policies
2. Significantly raise the level of global
investment in sustainable agriculture and
food systems in the next decade

3
3. Sustainably intensify agricultural
production while reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and other negative
environmental impacts of agriculture
4. Develop specific programs and policies
to assist populations and sectors that are
most vulnerable to climate changes and
food insecurity
5. Reshape food access and consumption
patterns to ensure basic nutritional needs
are met and to foster healthy and
sustainable eating patterns worldwide
6. Reduce loss and waste in food systems,
targeting infrastructure, farming practices,
processing, distribution and household
habits
7. Create comprehensive, shared, integrated
information systems that encompass human
and ecological dimensions
We must achieve all of these goals.
Future food production must have both
vastly increased productivity and good
environmental practices. Meeting these goals
will require the effective use of science.
Biotechnology with its evolving “omics” tools
(genomics, proteomics, metabolomics), will
allow the development of new approaches to
counter some of the complex problems we
now face. With these approaches it will be
possible to fast track current crop plants with
agronomic traits such as yield and tolerance
to environmental stress using the same or
diminished inputs and be able to withstand
pathogen attack and potential contamination
with mycotoxins. The coming generation
of crop plants may have value-added
outputs such as improved nutrient and food
functionality and be sources for biomass for
biofuel production and human therapeutics.
Another important area that will undergo
a major renaissance is microbial ecology
with the application of molecular biology
techniques . While microbial ecology is not
a new concept, it is pivotal to understanding
the presence and functioning of microbes
in complex and dynamic food environments,
both outside and inside the gastrointestinal
tract.As we understand more about the
complex and dynamic microbial ecology
of foods, we will be in a better position to
manipulate those biotic and abiotic factors
that enhance food quality and human health.
Similar improvements will be made to animal
health and it is the unique microbial ecology
of ruminant livestock (cattle and sheep) that
allows them to convert human-inedible
plant feeds and by-products into nutritious
human foods.
The other platform that should permit a
major leap forward is nanotechnology. It
holds promise for responding to the need
for more precise management of resources
such as water and fertilizers, improving crop
and livestock production, controlling pests,
diseases, and weeds, monitoring plant disease
and environmental stresses, improving
postharvest technology, including waste
management and food safety. It will allow the
application of precision agriculture in both
developed and developing economies.
However, without consumer acceptance,
new technologies will not succeed.This
will require education and communication
of the benefits that will accrue from their
application.This will need to be achieved
with a back-drop of increased consumer
interest in foods produced locally and organic
agriculture.These “feel-good” approaches
to agriculture will not overcome the food
demands of the future but the more useful
aspects of these practices must be part of
food production in the future.
Despite daunting challenges, the application
of contemporary food production and
processing practices along with scientific
advances combined with appropriate social
policies can underpin sustainable food
production systems. Clearly, the solution
to the challenge of meeting future food
demands lies in increased agricultural
Proposed Way Forward
ng
es
mmerce
nnectivity
ta
ucation
Energy
Food
Government
Loyalty
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Health
Learning

Impacts and Implications
ng
es
mmerce
nnectivity
ta
ucation
Energy
Food
Government
Loyalty
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Health
Learning
productivity everywhere, but particularly
among small-holder farmers, of whom there
are millions worldwide. Mixed crop and
livestock production systems produce about
half of the world’s food supply.Targeting
these systems should be a priority for
policies to sustainably intensify production
by carefully managed inputs of fertilizer,
water, and feed to minimize waste and
environmental impact, supported by improved
access to markets, new varieties, and
technologies.
The global food system is extremely complex
and the gap between developing and
developed nations is not only in economics
but also in science, governance, and public
information.Thus, to tackle these issues, a
number of areas must be addressed urgently:
• Science and research; There has been a
global decline in agricultural R&D in the
past four decades.There is now an urgent
need to redouble the agricultural research
effort.The new food producing system
has to be science-based with low resource
input.To ensure this occurs there must be
definable career paths to encourage the
next generation to enter agriculture and
food research.
• Economics and education; Increased
economic development is required
in developing countries hand-in-hand
with education.These improvements
will ultimately decrease the birth rate. In
many economies, women manage the
food cycle and their recognition and
education should be a priority. In developed
economies, education will be equally
important as consumer attitudes will be
very important to the eventual acceptance
of new technologies and adoption of
different patterns of food consumption.
Part of the economic equation must be to
pay farmers more for their products.
• Sustainable diet; Part of the solution to
feeding the planet is the development of
consumption patterns that meet
requirements in a safe, nutritious and
affordable manner. In developed countries
this will mean learning to eat sustainably
with less reliance on meat.Through
the application of the tools of molecular
biotechnology, future nutrition will be
personalised to account for individual
variation and to improve health and
well-being.
• Waste; Postharvest losses of plant foods can
be substantial in developing countries and
amount to 30 to 50 % of production due to
a lack of storage infrastructure. In
developed countries we throw away a
similar proportion of all food produced.
The combined loss would feed about 3
billion people. Reducing wastage will
provide breathing space to allow the
development and adoption of new food
production technologies.
• Governance: Addressing these complex
issues will take commitment and
collaborative efforts at both an
international and national government
levels. It must also involve government
agencies, private enterprise, and
nongovernmental organizations.An
atmosphere of collective good will ensure
that research investment is appropriate
and will enable the development of policy
to allow integrated implementation of new
food production systems.
4
Investment in Innovation
There has been a global
decline in agricultural R&D
in the past four decades.
There is now an urgent need
to redouble the agricultural
research effort. The new food
producing system has to
be science-based with low
resource input.
Education and Economics
In developed economies,
education will be equally
important as consumer
attitudes will be very
important to the eventual
acceptance of new
technologies and adoption
of different patterns of food
consumption. Part of the
economic equation must be
to pay farmers more for
their products.
Sustainable Consumption
Part of the solution to
feeding the planet is
the development of
consumption patterns that
meet requirements in a safe,
nutritious and affordable
manner. In developed
countries this will mean
learning to eat sustainably
with less reliance on meat.
Reducing Food Waste
Postharvest losses of plant
foods can be substantial in
developing countries and
amount to 30 to 50% of
production due to a lack
of storage infrastructure.
In developed countries
we throw away a similar
proportion of all food
Over the next decade and beyond
maintaining global food security will become
much more difficult as the population
increases. We must double food production
in a sustainable manner. Greater quantities of
food will need to be produced with reduced
inputs of water, energy and nutrients on the
same or reduced area of arable land in a
changing environment. To do otherwise will
court significant human conflict.
The increasing urbanisation of the global
community exacerbates this situation as
more and more people become isolated

5
Maintaining Global Food
Security
Over the next decade and
beyond maintaining global
food security will become
much more difficult as the
population increases. We
must double food production
in a sustainable manner.
Greater quantities of food
will need to be produced
with reduced inputs of water,
energy and nutrients on the
same or reduced area of
arable land in a changing
environment.
Reinventing Diets
Our relationship with food
must change.We will need
to reinvent our diets to meet
our nutritional requirements
for optimal health and in so
doing consume fewer calories
and less meat.To maintain a
viable food supply we must be
prepared to pay realistic prices
and reduce waste throughout
the food supply chain.
from the land and farming. Moreover,
urban populations are more vulnerable to
disruptions in the food supply chain. City
folk need to understand where their food
comes from. This will require education that
is starting to happen with the realisation that
nutrition is an important component
of human health. The nutrients supplied in
our food reflects agricultural practises and
food processing.
The link between human health and
agriculture is through food; its sources,
composition and distribution. Food sources
include both plant and animal and the
availability and composition of the latter
is largely determined by the cost of plant-
based feedstuffs. It is not surprising therefore,
that any consideration of population
demographics demonstrates the importance
of agricultural production as a major
determinant of public health. This would
appear to be a straight forward proposition,
embracing the adage ‘we are what we eat’,
especially in developing societies. However,
the relationship between agricultural
production and human health is complex in
a modern, developed society and measuring
the impacts is difficult.
Our relationship with food must change.
We will need to reinvent our diets to meet
our nutritional requirements for optimal
health and in so doing consume fewer
calories and less meat. To maintain a viable
food supply we must be prepared to pay
realistic prices and reduce waste throughout
the food supply chain. All of the required
changes must be underpinned by rigorous
research. This will require substantial public
and private sector investment.
Visionary public policy, both national and
international, must be a major instrument
if our food systems are to evolve in a
sustainable manner.
Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the
University of Queensland.
Lead expert on the Future of Food.
Professor Bryden is the Foundation Chair
in Animal Science at the University of
Queensland. He was Head of the School
of Animal Studies at the University of
Queensland from 2002 to 2007 and prior
to that appointment was Pro-Dean of
the Faculty of Veterinary Science at the
University of Sydney, where he was also
Director of the Poultry Research Foundation.
His research interests include nutrition
of monogastric animals and nutritional
toxicology of all domestic species and he
is a registered Animal Nutritionist. He
lectures in a range of subjects to both
animal science and veterinary science
students and has advised some 50 research
higher degree students.
In 2003 he was awarded the Centenary
Medal for his contributions to science and
education, and in 2005 he co-chaired the
Gordon Research Conference on Mycotoxins
and Phycotoxins. He is currently a member
of the WHO Expert Panel on Food Safety,
President of the Australasian Equine Science
Society and Editor-in-Chief of Animal
Production Science.
Lead Expert – Prof. Wayne Bryden

In an increasingly interconnected, complex
and uncertain world, many organisations
are looking for a better understanding
of how the future may unfold. To do this
successfully, many companies, institutions
and governments are working to improve
their use of strategic foresight in order to
anticipate emerging issues and prepare for
new opportunities.
Experience shows that change often occurs
at the intersection of different disciplines,
industries or challenges. This means that
views of the future that focus on one sector
alone have limited relevance in today’s world.
In order to have real value, foresight needs
to bring together multiple informed and
credible views of emerging change to form
a coherent picture of the world ahead. The
Future Agenda programme aims to do this
by providing a global platform for collective
thought and innovation discussions.
Get Involved
To discuss the future agenda programme and
potential participation please contact:
Dr.Tim Jones
Programme Director
Future Agenda
84 Brook Street, London. W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141 +44 780 1755 054
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
@futureagenda
The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open
foresight initiative. It was created in 2009 to
bring together views on the future from many
leading organizations. Building on expert
perspectives that addressed everything from
the future of health to the future of money,
over 1500 organizations debated the big
issues and emerging challenges for the next
decade. Sponsored globally by Vodafone
Group, this groundbreaking programme
looked out ten years to the world in 2020
and connected CEOs and mayors with
academics and students across 25 countries.
Additional online interaction connected over
50,000 people from more than 145 countries
who added their views to the mix. All output
from these discussions was shared via the
futureagenda.org website.
The success of the first Future Agenda
Programme stimulated several organizations
to ask that it should be repeated. Therefore
this second programme is running
throughout 2015 looking at key changes
in the world by 2025. Following a similar
approach to the first project, Future Agenda
2.0 builds on the initial success and adds
extra features, such as providing more
workshops in more countries to gain an
even wider input and enable regional
differences to be explored. There is also
a specific focus on the next generation
including collaborating with educational
organizations to engage future leaders. There
is a more refined use of social networks
to share insights and earlier link-ups with
global media organizations to ensure wider
engagement on the pivotal topics. In addition,
rather than having a single global sponsor,
this time multiple hosts are owning specific
topics wither globally or in their regions of
interest. Run as a not for profit project, Future
Agenda 2.0 is a major collaboration involving
many leading, forward-thinking organisations
around the world.
Context – Why Foresight?
6
What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org
About Future Agenda
Future Agenda 1.0 Future Agenda 2.0

Future of food - An initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland

Future of food - An initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (9)

Similar to Future of food - An initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland

Similar to Future of food - An initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland (20)

More from Future Agenda

More from Future Agenda (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Future of food - An initial perspective by Prof. Wayne Bryden, Foundation Chair in Animal Science at the University of Queensland