Anz august market research 2010

Australian Property Outlook / August 2010 / 1 of 12

ECONOMICS & MARKETS RESEARCH
AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY OUTLOOK

FUNDAMENTALS SOLID… BUT CAUTION LINGERS

AUGUST 2010 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The aftershocks from the global financial crisis (GFC) continue to reverberate
INSIDE through financial markets with sovereign debt crises in Europe weighing
heavily on investor sentiment. Despite heightened market fears and weak
Economic Overview ... 2
Residential Property .. 3
equity markets, the economic outlook for Australia remains robust.
Office Property ......... 8 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
Retail Overview ........ 9
Tourist – With interest rates expected to rise, we expect house price growth will
Accommodation ........ 10 (temporarily) slow to low single digits in 2011. Nonetheless, in the absence of
Industrial Property 11 a major economic downturn, a critical shortage of housing will see house
prices and rents grind ever higher and housing affordability and availability
CONTRIBUTORS
will become major social and political issues in the decade ahead.
Paul Braddick
Head of Property Research COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
+61 3 9273 5987 Office fundamentals are set to improve from a relatively favourable starting
Paul.Braddick@anz.com
position. With the market re-calibrated to a risk averse post-GFC
Ange Montalti environment, we expect healthy returns as confidence restores.
Senior Economist,
Property Research For the retail sector, despite fundamentals suggesting moderate under-
+61 3 9273 6288 valuation, investor conservatism and interest rate headwinds will see a
Ange.Montalti@anz.com lingering ‘fear discount’ on asset prices for a little while yet.
David Cannington Tourist accommodation has shown indications of recovery, particularly in
Economist, inbound business numbers, following a period of decline in both domestic and
Property Research
+61 3 9273 4274 international tourism driven by a strong A$ and the impact of the GFC.
David.Cannington@anz.com
Increased international trade activity and softer supply have seen industrial
Dylan Eades yields tighten and added upward pressure on rents. The outlook for subdued
Research Analyst, additions to supply in the near term and continuing growth in demand for
Property Research
+61 3 9273 2708
industrial space should see these trends continue.
Dylan.Eades@anz.com
HOW LOW NEW-HOME ‘FAIR’ VALUE FOR
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING? COMMERCIAL PROPERTY?
6 % of GDP 10 %
Long-term average ‘property risk
Premium’*
9
Current ‘property risk
8 Premium’
5
7
Below ‘fair value’ by:
8%
6
28%
4 5 5%

4

3
3
2

About to breach a record low 1
with further interest rises to combat
2 0
59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 07 11 Office Retail Industrial
*PRP = sector yield less real risk-free benchmark rate. Long-term average is calculated over period 1985 to 2010

Sources: ABS, IPD, ANZ


ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

AUSTRALIA’S PROSPECTS REMAIN BRIGHT
GLOBAL ECONOMY STILL FRAGILE
The aftershocks from the global financial crisis (GFC) June. Until recently, we saw the greatest risk to
continue to reverberate through financial markets growth in ongoing inflationary pressures that may
with sovereign debt crises in Europe weighing have forced the RBA to ‘over’-tighten, resulting in a
heavily on investor sentiment. A concurrent debt servicing crisis for highly geared households.
softening of momentum in the US and signs of However, evidence of a moderation in underlying
overheating in China have severely reduced the growth momentum (retail sales, sentiment, building
appetite for risk. Sovereign debt concerns and the approvals, housing finance/prices) and underlying
necessary fiscal adjustments will restrict growth in inflation itself in the June quarter indicate policy
much of the developed world and we expect on- moves to date are successfully managing growth
going market volatility and elevated risk premia for onto a more sustainable path. This provides the RBA
years to come. with some breathing room to assess the balance
Nonetheless, we do not expect a ‘double dip’ in between more cautious household and business
global growth. US policy stimuli will be removed sentiment and booming mining investment and
gradually allowing a subdued, yet ongoing recovery profits. Nonetheless, growth is likely to return to
and Chinese authorities are expected to successfully trend (or slightly above) in 2010-11 and tightening
reduce growth to more sustainable levels between 9 labour supply suggests inflationary pressures will
and 10% per annum. There is every indication the eventually force the RBA to lift rates further into
China slowdown is being managed very well. While restrictive territory. This could see a return to the
the greatest risks lie in the European economy and ‘two speed economy’ where the resource states
banking system, we believe authorities will do what perform strongly and the non-resource states bear
is necessary to avoid a GFC Mark 2. the brunt of tighter policy settings.

AUSTRALIAN OUTLOOK POSITIVE DWELLING INVESTMENT

Despite heightened market fears and weak equity Most forecasters expect an upswing in dwelling
markets, the Australian economic outlook remains investment to be a key driver of growth in the years
healthy. Our performance during the GFC was ahead. However, sharp declines in new dwelling
unparalleled and activity has since rebounded approvals in recent months, if continued, imply
strongly. Part of the strength last year was directly home building could detract from growth. Interest
attributable to policy stimulus that is gradually being rates have always been a key trigger for shifts in
removed. However, the current commodity boom the dwelling cycle. The recent fall in approvals and
will maintain growth momentum in the years ahead our expectation that interest rates will continue to
via stronger resource investment, production, rise indicate that dwelling investment could weaken
exports and profits. despite a clear shortage of housing that is driving
rents and house prices ever higher. By reducing
COMMODITY BOOM WILL BOOST GROWTH
economic growth, weakening home building activity
Terms of trade* will mitigate near term inflationary pressures.
130 index

However, the ongoing imbalance in housing demand
120
and supply could create far more intractable
110
housing-related cost pressures in later years.
NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
100

Non-residential building activity has been supported
90
by the Government’s $42 billion economic stimulus
80 plan. However, savage declines in non-residential
building approvals suggest that activity will weaken
70

*export price index/import price index
sharply as the Government programs conclude.
60 Combined with subdued market sentiment and tight
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
credit access, additions to the stock of commercial
Sources: ABS, ANZ property will be limited (a stark contrast to the early
Moreover, the labour market remains remarkably 1990s) and will help to support market valuations.
strong with employment up 3.3% over the year to


RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY

SHORTAGE SET TO WORSEN
CUSP OF A GOLDEN ERA? NOT LIKELY…. will the industry languish but the social and
Australia’s building sector was used to having wild economic repercussions of not providing adequate
swings in dwelling activity over the 1980s and accommodation will be significant. Australia is likely
1990s but thanks to relative stability in interest to face a full blown housing crisis.
rates over much of the past decade, the traditional …ACTIVITY IS GOING TO WEAKEN FURTHER
swings have pretty much disappeared.1 If not for Most forward indicators of housing construction
intervention by governments, the observed volatility activity suggest building is likely to weaken over
of housing construction and associated risks that 2010/11. Private sector approvals have weakened
this presents to operators would have been much after a very short-lived upturn. This is symptomatic
reduced. We don’t have the counter-factual, so it is of both the cyclical and structural elements. That we
difficult to know what the wash-up would have been have a building downturn re-commencing when
without government assistance but the net lasting dwelling expenditure as a percentage of GDP is
benefits are questionable. already breaching historic lows is troublesome.
Given expectations for continued relative stability in Dwelling completions are now expected to peak at
interest rates, the cyclical risks to housing will just below 160,000 in 2011 before retreating to
remain subdued and secondary to the more 150,000 in 2012. Unfortunately, this remains well
imposing structural cracks that have been until now below our underlying housing demand estimate of
dealt a mere ‘patch–up’ job in the form of expedient 200,000 p.a., suggesting what is already a critical
or knee jerk solutions. These ‘solutions’ at best housing shortage will deteriorate significantly
merely band-aid or mask the condition and quite further in the years ahead.
possibly exacerbate the affordability challenge. They APPROVALS HAVE TOPPED OUT
also promote more volatility by bunching demand
Residential construction spending Building approvals
and exposing the industry to post-policy grief. What $bn, 2007/08 prices
12
Number, trend, ‘000
11
they don’t do and what policy should be doing is
New dwellings
dealing with the fundamental imbalance between 10 10 Total houses

supply and demand. We need more homes. The gap 9
between housing demand and supply has widened 8
8
dramatically in recent years and will continue to
Total “other
6
widen into the foreseeable future. 7 residential”
building

The political, social and economic imperative to deal 6
4
more seriously with the structural impediments is 5
Renovations Private “other residential”
accumulating. The good news is that there does and extensions 2 building
4
appear to be considerable mobilisation of resources
at many levels to deal with the problem. But it is 3 0
91 93 95 97 99 01 02 05 07 09 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
only at the early stages. Planning and development
systems, growth strategies (including regional and Source: ABS
urban) and a preparedness to invest substantially in
Combined with rising interest rates (yes, the cycle is
infrastructure to support growth are critical to
not dead) this suggests conditions for renters and
success. Importantly, to be successful, policies also
first home buyers will become increasingly difficult.
need to support community aspirations and they
For builders, the combination of further interest rate
need to be co-ordinated across often conflicting
rises, ‘headline’ dwelling price falls in June and little
stakeholders within the community.
headway on the structural impediments spells
If we get it right, the Australian building industry is caution. Specifically, these conditions heighten
potentially on the cusp of one of the strongest margin risk and reduce expected profitability. While
secular increases in activity since the 1960s. If we there is some buffer from the run-up in prices
fail to act both swiftly and appropriately, not only through 2009, this will not last forever. For new
projects, a flatter price trajectory built into budgets
1
Note the apparent cycle in the early part of the most recent suggests a greater percentage of projects will fail the
decade was attributable in large part to the timing distortion viability test.
generated by the introduction of GST. The 2009 “cycle” had
everything to do with assistance to first-home buyers.



While finance to the medium-density sector appears IS THERE A HOUSE PRICE BUBBLE?
to be flowing more freely than it was 12 months ago, International comparisons of ‘house price to income’
the demand for such funds will most probably remain ratios have been widely used to suggest that
subdued in the atmospherics that appear to be Australian house prices are significantly overvalued.
establishing. These analyses are dangerously simplistic and
HOUSE PRICES DECELERATE ignore a key component of the housing affordability
equation – interest rates.
Australian house prices rebounded strongly last year
buoyed by low interest rates, tightening supply, The proponents of the housing ‘bubble’ story argue
relaxed foreign investment rules and the elevated ‘house price to income’ ratios must revert
government’s first home-owner boost. The national to their long term historical average in order to
dwelling prices rose by 10.5% over the year to June return housing ‘affordability’ to sustainable levels.
2010, with Melbourne prices up a relatively solid However, as a measure of housing affordability,
16% over the same period2. However, momentum ‘house price to income’ ratios are flawed as they
has softened in recent months following the removal completely ignore interest rates. Ultimately, house
of the first home owner boost, a re-tightening of purchase affordability relates to debt servicing costs
foreign investment rules and rising mortgage rates. of which interest rates are a key driver. This not
Annualised growth in capital city house prices in the only means that ‘house price to income’ ratios are
June quarter slowed sharply with further momentum fundamentally flawed as a measure of housing
loss evident through the quarter3. Importantly, affordability but also makes intertemporal and cross
some of the near-term price weakness being border comparisons of these ratios next to
recorded is likely to be reflecting the unprecedented meaningless (given varying interest rates, tax
level of pent-up trading supply (property listings) regimes, population concentrations, quality of
flying in the face of the interest rate-induced housing stock, market balances, lending standards
reductions in buyer demand. Lower clearance rates etc). The predominant reason for the jump in the
support this market mismatch and would most ‘house price to income’ ratio is the structural (read
probably have generated more significant price falls permanent) reduction in interest rates experienced
had the supply been ‘forced”. In the absence of a Mortgage interest rates in Australia in the 1980s
supply-side stress, the current weakness is likely to averaged around 14%, however, since 2000 the
prove only temporary. average has been close to 7%. This fall in mortgage
interest rates has, quite reasonably, been
While we do not expect continued trend declines, we
capitalised into house prices and measured housing
do expect annual house price growth to slow to low
affordability remains broadly equivalent to average
single digits in 2011 and remain sluggish,
1980s levels.
particularly as interest rates rise further over
coming quarters. Nonetheless, in the absence of a FALLING INTEREST RATES ‘JUSTIFY’ PRICE GAINS
major economic downturn, a critical shortage of Median house Household income Mortgage rate House price to
price income
housing will see house prices and rents grind ever $'000
600 100 $'000 14 % 6 ratio
higher and housing affordability and availability will Ratio that equates to
1980s
become major social and political issues in the 500 12
5
average
80 servicing
decade ahead, even with a projected slowing in burden

population growth. As noted above, there is no 400
10
4

panacea for this condition but temporary solutions 60
8

will in all likelihood play again into the hands of 300 3

volatility and do little to solve the underlying supply 40
6

problem. 200 2
4

20
100 1
2

0 0 0 0
85 09 85 09 85 09 85 09

Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ
2
RP-Data Rismark
3
RP-Data Rismark report “all dwelling” all capital cities
prices fell 0.8% in the month of June.



NEW SOUTH WALES the beginning of 2011, foreshadowing a period of
stronger rental growth.
The Sydney residential property market has
recorded strong gains over the past year with VICTORIA
dwelling prices growing 10.4% in the year to June,
Melbourne’s housing market has continued to
around the national average.4 There are signs
outperform with residential property prices
however that price growth is easing. Private housing
increasing 16% in the year to June, although house
finance approvals grew by 41% over the course of
price growth has begun to cool recently. Positive
2008–09, but have declined by 12% since their peak
economic conditions continue to prevail, with trend
in July 2009. Furthermore, auction clearance rates
unemployment falling from 6.0% to 5.4% over the
which were at 75% during February have fallen
past year. Consumer confidence and consumption
sharply to below 60% in June as the amount of
have remained strong, with the Victorian economy
stock coming on to the market has increased and
expected to grow by 2.5% and 3.0% over 2009-10
deteriorating housing affordability has taken some
and 2010-11 respectively. This should support
of the heat out of the market. This has been a
housing market activity in the years ahead.
moderating influence on dwelling price growth which
only gained a modest 0.5% over the June quarter. The number of first home buyers participating in the
housing market has fallen sharply, as rising prices,
DWELLING PRICES HAVE MODERATED
interest rates and the removal of federal
Capital city dwelling price growth over the year to June 2010 government stimulus measures reduce housing
20 % 20 % * Hobart data is
affordability. Investors have picked up the slack
only over the
year until May however, with the value of investor finance
2010
approvals increasing 42% over the year to June
15 15 2010.
INVESTORS PICK UP THE SLACK
All capitals average All capitals average
10 10 Victorian finance approvals: Investors vs owner
$bn
4.0
occupiers

3.5 Owner-Occupiers
5 5

3.0

2.5
0 0
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Darwin Canberra Hobart*
2.0

Source: RP Data/Rismark
1.5

After rising sharply following the introduction of 1.0
Investors

government stimulus measures, residential building
approvals have grown by a modest 5.2% in the six 0.5

months to June 2010, but remain 53% below their 0.0
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
2004 levels. By our calculation, NSW currently has a
shortage of 86,000 dwellings (forecasted to rise to Source: ABS
126,000 by the end of June 2011). This is not
After running at close to 90% earlier in the year,
surprising considering the chronic under-building
auction clearance rates have declined to below 60%
that has been occurring in NSW, reflecting a
in June as demand softens and unusually high levels
combination of over-regulation imposing additional
of stock have come on to the market. Indeed,
development costs and soft economic activity. The
Melbourne’s dwelling prices have cooled with softer
influx of first home buyers into the market
market activity, recording price growth of just 0.2%
temporarily relaxed pressure on the rental market
over the June quarter.
with vacancies increasing marginally. Despite this,
rental vacancies currently sit at 1.25% - the lowest The tight underlying fundamentals of Melbourne’s
in Australia – and are forecast to fall to under 1% by housing market however, will continue over the
medium to long term, with dwelling completions set
to fall from 2012, exacerbating the chronic shortage
4
All property price data in this report refers to RP Data- of housing in Victoria.
Rismark hedonic price data series.



QUEENSLAND SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The Queensland economy was hit hard by the Robust economic conditions, along with low interest
economic downturn with economic growth at a rates, affordable housing, population growth and
meagre 1.4% over 2008-09 - its lowest level for 18 government stimulus combined to push house prices
years. However, in recent times, there have been up by 9.1% over the year to June 2010. While this
some causes for optimism. Despite a sharp decline is just shy of the all-capital-city average over the
in business investment over 2009-10, the same period, it was better than expectations for a
Queensland economy has exhibited moderate market that has generally underperformed in the
economic growth, with exports and government past. This recent performance together with rising
stimulus the main catalysts. Economic growth has interest rates and withdrawal of government
rebounded to an estimated 3.0% for 2009-10, stimulus has impacted on affordability. Although
dragging down the trend unemployment rate in the investors have provided some support this has been
process from 6.0% last October to its current rate of outweighed by first home buyer finance approvals
5.4%. Strengthening demand for commodities from declining by 60% since May 2009. Price growth has
the Asian region should drive export growth, with slowed as a consequence, recording just a 1.1%
the Queensland economy expected to grow at 3.5% increase through the June quarter.
and 5.0% over 2010-11 and 2011-12 respectively. After falling during the financial crises, South
QUEENSLAND HOUSING FUNDAMENTALS TIGHT Australian building approvals and starts have
increased by 9% and 8% respectively over the past
Housing market balance: Queensland
150
‘000
year, contributing to a healthy level building
activity. The result is that in contrast to other
states, South Australia is currently building enough
100 Shortage housing to suggest supply will actually exceed
underlying demand by the end of 2010 ensuring
Underlying demand
that South Australia will have a housing surplus. In
50
conjunction with below average economic growth,
Completions this should act to moderate both house price and
0
rental growth over the medium term.

Surplus WESTERN AUSTRALIA

-50 Western Australia’s economy has rebounded sharply
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
over the course of 2009/10 with employment
growing by 3.8% and economic growth estimated to
Sources: ABS, ANZ be 3.0% for 2009-10 up from just 0.7% in 2008-09.
Private housing finance approvals have declined by Despite positive economic conditions, house prices
24% since August last year. Rising interest rates have not been supported to the same degree as
and deteriorating affordability have seen first home other states with Western Australia experiencing
buyers leave the market in droves, with their share house price growth of only 5.1% over the year to
of the total number of home loans halving since June 2010.
their peak in May 2009. Unlike Victoria however, It appears that the WA residential property market
investors have remained on the sidelines, causing is catching its breath after the recent commodities
an overall weakening in near-term market demand led boom in which residential property prices
conditions. This has restrained price growth increased 76% between December 2004 and mid-
compared to other capitals with residential property 2007. After recovering lost ground during 2009,
prices gaining a modest 4.5% over the year to June recent interest rates rises combined with the
(compared to all capitals’ growth of 10.5%). expiration of government stimulus measures have
conspired to reduce affordability and put the kybosh
Although private residential building approvals have
on price growth over the first half of 2010.
rebounded from their lows in 2008, they remain
34% below 2007 boom levels. Completions fell by Over the medium term, the fundamentals of Perth’s
17.5% over the course of 2009–10 pushing the property market will remain tight. Economic growth
underlying Queensland housing shortage to just shy will be supported by an upsurge in business
of 40,000 dwellings. investment with key major resource projects



ramping up over the coming years, whilst strong NORTHERN TERRITORY
growth in the Asian region will boost demand for The Northern Territory has continued to surge
Australian commodities supporting income growth ahead. Buoyed by favourable economic conditions,
and domestic economic activity. Combined with housing finance approvals received a sizeable boost
strong population growth, these conditions should after a raft of stimulus measures were introduced
provide support to growth in WA house prices and by state and federal governments to be up 73%.
housing market activity in the years ahead. Coupled with strong migration numbers, the
BUSINESS INVESTMENT TO SUPPORT WA ECONOMY Northern Territory has seen residential property
Engineering construction: work to Economic growth prices grow by 14.3% over the past year and 5.7%
$bn
be completed to date in 2010, pointing to relatively greater
70 8 %

resilience, although prices have slipped in the June
56
WA quarter. Rising interest rates and deteriorating
6 affordability have sucked some of the momentum
Western out of housing demand, with finance approvals
42 Australia
declining 29% since their peak in October last year.
4
Of more concern is the decline in private residential
28

Total National
building approvals which will worsen the Territory’s
(Excluding WA and
Territories) 2
chronic housing undersupply and place further
14
Australia pressure on already tight housing fundamentals.
Rental growth continues to outperform, growing at
0 0 just under 10%. A plethora of energy projects on
01 03 05 07 09 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12
the horizon should continue to provide impetus to
Sources: ABS, ANZ the state economy which will boost demand for
housing and underpin activity in the medium term.
TASMANIA
Tasmania’s economy remains in the doldrums with AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
private investment levels declining and household Canberra’s economy remains robust with its trend
consumption remaining stagnant. The closure of unemployment rate declining from 3.7% at the
manufacturing plants and the delay of key beginning of the year to 3.3%. After growing by
renewable energy projects have reduced 61% between August and December 2009, housing
employment with the trend unemployment rate finance approvals have since declined by a
rising to 6.3% from 5.0% this time last year. relatively modest 8% to date in 2010, reflecting the
Economic growth is expected to shrink by 1.0% over strong demand conditions. House prices have
2009-10 and grow by just 0.5% in 2010-11 making grown by 10.6% over the past year although some
Tasmania the worst performer of all the states. slight decline has been recorded in the June quarter
A mild upswing in investor interest has been along with other capitals.
outweighed by the decline of first-home buyers. The high average median house price of $495,000 is
First-home buyer finance approvals have fallen more supported by the largely professional workforce
than 62% from their peak in September 2009. making Canberra’s housing market the most
Weakening demand conditions have left Hobart’s affordable in the country (when we measure
property prices at a standstill with falls of 0.5% affordability in terms of price as a proportion of the
recorded to date in 2010. Tasmania’s sputtering city’s average household income). Consequently,
economy along with an underlying surplus of recent rate rises and the removal of government
housing supply means Hobart’s housing market is stimulus measures have had a smaller impact than
likely to record negligible price growth over the in other capitals. The outlook for Canberra’s housing
coming year. The weak housing market supply is also improving, with private residential
fundamentals will persist, suggesting an easing in building approvals doubling from their lows of 2008.
rental vacancies and moderating rental market Housing starts and completions have also edged
growth over the coming years. upwards. The state government has also been
proactive, releasing over 4,000 sites for
development activity over 2009-10 and in excess of
5,000 sites over 2010-11.


OFFICE PROPERTY

SPRINGBOARD MADE OF SENTIMENT
FUNDAMENTALS WERE GOOD TO START WITH employment growth soaking up capacity. The
The supply-side has been a spoiler for office sector vacancy rate is trending down, with further
conditions in past decades. Given the long lags tightening expected over 2011 and 2012. Average
between a “go” signal on development proposal, rentals of $291 per sqm for prime office space still
construction and ultimate occupancy, the balance compares favourably to Sydney ($385 per sqm) and
between demand and supply is very difficult to Brisbane ($359 per sqm) even though relativities
manage. Add the extra dynamic created when have restored to some degree. Stubbornly high
multiple players in the industry perceive the same yields (PRP of over 5%) combined with low rentals
opportunity at the same time, it is little wonder the present a double-whammy, offering considerable
office market booms and busts like few other upside to values. Hints of market recovery suggest
markets. Fortunately, we don’t have such a problem this process is already underway. Brisbane’s CBD
this time around thanks largely to the GFC which office market fundamentals are not strong but
along with monetary policy tightening through 2008 there appears to be a topping-out in vacancies at an
stymied the supply-side considerably. historic high of around 11%. Short-term economic
sluggishness in QLD suggests a long ride home for
The economic slowdown reduced net absorption but this market. Rentals and capital values are expected
without the traditional additional supply, vacancies to remain subdued. Evidence of yield tightening
rose only moderately. The market feared more reflects a shift in broader investment benchmarks.
substantial oversupply but our projections always
VACANCIES TOPPING OUT
characterised the prospect as a ‘mini-cycle’ - the
national office vacancy rate lifting from an extreme CBD office vacancy rates
30 %
low of 3% to an acceptable 8% in 2010. Signs of 30 %

stability in market balance are re-emerging. Without
25 Melbourne
a typical supply-pipeline issue, ongoing employment 25 Perth

growth will see the market tighten from what is
20
already a healthy fundamental position. 20
Adelaide

Capital values fell by between 16% and 25% 15 15
between late-2007 and September 2009, a far cry Sydney

from the 50%+ declines in the early 1990s. From a 10 10

broader investment perspective, office prices seem
low. ANZ’s measure of the office “property risk 5 5
Hobart

premium” (PRP) suggests prices are around 28% Brisbane
below what would achieve the long-term average 0 0
90 94 98 02 06 10
PRP. If we discount the impact of the early 1990s, 90 94 98 02 06 10

under-valuation shrinks to a lower but still
significant 15%5. That prices are below this Sources: Property Council of Australia, ANZ
benchmark suggests reticence among investors “Too much supply too late” has seen Perth CBD
about future returns or a re-rating of risk is office market turn from acute shortage to sizeable
occurring. We believe the former is more likely. oversupply in just 18 months. Rentals and values
Sydney’s CBD office market vacancy rate has have plummeted from “penalty rate” levels at the
edged up in the first half of 2010, yet rentals have height of the stock shortage. Recovery in the WA
steadied after an incentive-driven collapse over economy will limit ongoing fallout but some
2008-09. With the economy showing signs of life volatility is expected around a positive medium-
and new office supply being contained, vacancy term outlook with considerable upside. Adelaide
rates edged down. Capital values and rents have not core office market is experiencing a softening in
shown any notable sign of improvement but are fundamentals. A healthy run-up in rentals even
poised to recover over the next year. Melbourne’s through the GFC has engendered some lasting
CBD office market has improved markedly in the confidence in this market, reflected in tightening
last six months with better than expected yields and higher values (+8%oy). Sluggish
economic prospects suggest gains will be difficult
5
The PRP is gap b/w the office yield and real risk-free rate. despite a tightening in vacancies in 2010-11.
“Fair” value equates the current PRP to its long-term average.


RETAIL PROPERTY

BACK ON COURSE
With interest rates on the rise and government moderate and struggle at times with some “fear
stimulus a distant memory, the retailing sector is discount” being maintained in valuations.
bracing itself for a tough trading environment over The implication is that without a near-seismic positive
2010/11. Household spending growth has softened shift in sentiment, we are unlikely to see other than
sharply in recent quarters and its trajectory is moderate increases in rentals, tentative re-
expected to remain muted over this period. Despite compression in yields and acceptable but not
the growth slowdown, retail turnover is nonetheless excessive increases in valuations. This is
holding at healthy levels, 8% above the pre- GFC symptomatic of the very difficult set of circumstances
level. While resource states have been lagging, this from which the sector is emerging and the generally
should prove temporary with a revival in commodity less volatile behaviour this market displays (vis a vis
markets likely to re-ignite spending conditions in other commercial sectors).
those states form 2011.
RETAIL PROPERTY VALUES WELL SUPPORTED
From a property perspective, resilience in retail
Retail property risk premium Retail property market indicators
turnover has offered a relatively useful and benign 4.6 % 400 index

operating back-drop for retailers who would have 4.4

faced the generally prescribed CPI adjustments to 350

4.2
rentals. Rental affordability has remained
300
comfortable, averting a tenant-led cry for higher 4.0 Long-term
average
incentives. By the same token, we do not expect 3.8 250
Capital value

significant constraints to higher rentals once market
3.6
conditions improve. Property
200

3.4 Risk premium
To date and true to form, the retail property sector 150
3.2 Return of PRP to blue-
has weathered the property downturn considerably dotted line implies a 5% lift Rentals
in value
better than other commercial sectors, with values 3.0
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
100
86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
dropping 11% from peak to trough and yields
Sources: IPD, ANZ
‘softening’ by 100bp since 2007. Given the unique
circumstances confronting the listed property trust Medium-term, the signs are encouraging. Retail
sector in recent years (heavily retail-weighted), this vacancy rates are generally still at low levels,
sector was dealt a heavier than usual blow but suggesting the supply/demand fundamentals remain
maintained relative resilience. intact despite an extended period of solid retail
construction in recent years. However, with the
Encouragingly, there are signs of stability in yields,
approvals pipeline collapsing since 2009 and
and rentals are hinting at more significant upward
continued reticence among lenders, there is every
shifts in some markets, although generally, such
prospect of a tightening in conditions ahead of a
adjustments have been moderate to date.
delayed construction cycle over 2012. Market values
Investment fundamentals for retail property are also will shift more sharply through 2011 and into 2012,
moderately supportive of further growth in values validating the building upswing.
and yield re-compression. More specifically, ANZ’s
SUPPLY PIPELINE IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE
measure of the “retail property risk premium” (PRP) Retail and wholesale building

suggests prices are presently around 5% below fair 7000 $mn 2007/08

value.6 But history tells us markets can remain inert 6500
Approvals

when various limiters are active. Today, markets are 6000

dealing with lingering and renewed uncertainties 5500

surrounding the prospects for the major economies 5000

and to a lesser extent, the resilience of our own 4500
economy in the face of higher interest rates. 4000
Value of work done

Recovery in values in the year ahead will be 3500

3000
6
The PRP measures the gap between the retail 2500
property yield and the real risk-free rate. “fair” value 2000
requires measured PRP to equal long-term average 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
PRP. Source: ABS

Australian Property Outlook / 16 August 2010 / 10 of 12

TOURIST ACCOMMODATION

DEMAND PICKING UP WHILE SUPPLY LAGS
Australia with the combined impact of the GFC and Tasmania reported the lowest (59%), followed by
a strong A$, indicators of tourism activity pointed Queensland (61%). Room occupancy rates were
to a turning point in demand for tourist weaker in March 2010 for the two largest tourism
accommodation in early 2010. The lagged supply states (NSW & Qld), while Victoria’s rate remained
response should result in tighter market conditions steady.
and upward pressure on property values. TOURISM ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF RECOVERY
In March 2010, the number of large
accommodation establishments (15+ rooms) in Tourist accommodation (15+ rooms)
% national room occupancy % change p.a.
Australia was down just 0.1% from a year earlier.
70 rate (left) 15
Over the same period, the number of rooms these total nominal
takings (right)
establishments provided was up 0.7%. These 65 10
growth rates were at their slowest in 5 years, and
well below their 10 year average annual growth 60 5
rates of 1.6% (establishments) and 2.0% (rooms).
55 0
The supply of smaller accommodation (5-14
rooms) was even weaker over the year to March 50 -5
2010. The number of establishments and rooms employment (right)

provided by these smaller operators was down 45 -10
2.8% and 2.0% respectively from a year earlier. 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Looking forward, limited new supply is expected
Source: ABS
over the next 12 months. Both commencements
and approvals have been slowing since end-2008 The number of accommodation establishments
with the value (real annual dollars) of approvals grew in all states and territories except NSW (-1%)
and commencements in March 2010 sitting at less and Tasmania (-0.6%) in the year to June 2009.
than 70% of the 10 year average level. The strongest growth was in the ACT (+3.7%) and
SUPPLY PIPELINE IS STILL SOFTENING the NT (+6.6%).

annual % change $bn real, annual data Recovery in key tourism indicators has also
3 2.5 reflected increases in international arrivals. Short-
Approvals (right)
Rooms (left) term visitor arrivals to Australia have increased
2 2.0
1.2% since December 2009. As of May 2010,
1 monthly visitor arrivals were around 471,000 per
1.5
0 month (12mma), compared to 465,000 per month
1.0 (12mma) in December 2009. Of this growth,
-1
Starts (right)
0.5
conference and business travel showed the
-2
Establishments (left) strongest recovery to be up 6.5%. Holiday arrivals
-3 0.0 (making up about 45% of all short term arrivals)
05 06 07 08 09 were still relatively weak in 2010, to be down 0.3%
Source: ABS from December 2009 to May 2010.
For large accommodation operators the national Growth prospects for the remainder of 2010 look
room occupancy rate was slightly weaker (62.9%) significantly better, with the global and domestic
in the quarter to March 2010, while total nominal economies both continuing to recover from the
takings were growing again in annual terms for GFC. The Tourism Forecasting Committee (TFC)
the first time since the end of 2008, to be up expects short-term international visitor arrivals to
2.2% in the year to March 2010. Industry grow by 5.5% in 2010, after 2 years of decline.
employment was still falling to be down 1.4% in Domestic visitor nights should grow by a modest
the year to March 2010. 1.5%, after falling more than 5% pa in both 2008
Room occupancy rates (for large establishments) and 2009.
reflected differences in tourism activity across
states and territories. Room occupancy rates
remained highest in the ACT (79%) while


INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY

INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY HAS TURNED THE CORNER
While industrial property suffered through 2009, partly leading indicators of supply as non-residential
through weak import volumes and tighter access to building approvals improve into second half 2010
credit, signs through the first half of 2010 show an and industrial building commencements pick up
improved outlook. Reflecting renewed confidence and after falling sharply throughout 2009. With
a relatively strong economic outlook, the run down of expectations of subdued supply and strong growth
inventories has ended. In the year to March 2010 in demand over the second half of 2010 vacant
inventories were a paltry $71 million lower after being stock should be taken up relatively quickly and will
$4 billion lower in 2009. begin to put upward pressure on rents.
INVENTORIES RUNDOWN HAS ENDED Since December 2009 both prime and secondary
yields have tightened moderately to be 8-8½%
Inventories
10,000 $mn, C VM, 4-qtr rolling sum
and 9½-10% respectively. These moves have
8,000 seen the premium on prime asset yields pushed
6,000 out to around 150-200 bps into Q2-2010 after
4,000
sitting at around 100 bps in the early part of 2009.
2,000
0 YIELDS FIRMING AND QUALITY PREMIUM HOLDING
-2,000 Industrial yields

-4,000 Prime asset yields Prime vs secondary yields
10.0% 12%
-6,000 % p.a. % p.a.
-8,000 9.5% Melbourne
11% Secondary asset
-10,000
9.0%
87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
10%
8.5% Sydney Brisbane
Sources: ABS, ANZ
Looking into 2010 a continued strengthening of 8.0% 9%

the Australian dollar and solid domestic economy 7.5% Prime asset
8%
is expected to drive further growth in imports and 7.0%

a rebuilding in inventories over the next 12- 6.5%
7%

months that will support demand for warehousing
6.0% 6%
space. These factors are likely to provide a 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

favourable environment to promote recovery of
Sources: JLL, ANZ
capital values and rents.
Despite signs of stronger demand and tighter
SUPPLY REMAINS SUBDUED FOR NOW
industrial property market conditions, any return
Industrial building activity to 2007-08 levels of rental growth and yields is
Real $million, sa (ann rolling
6,000
unlikely to be repeated. While industrial property
Value of work done
developers continue to be deterred in the short-
5,000
C ommencements term by tight lending conditions, any significant
4,000 Approvals
easing of these conditions remains a risk to the
3,000
outlook for industrial property supply.
2,000
We anticipate that industrial yields will continue to
1,000
compress into 2010 and 2011. Expansion in supply
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
of industrial property is likely to improve from
current levels into early-2011 although remain
Sources: ABS, ANZ
relatively subdued for the remainder of 2010.
For now, supply of industrial space continues to While both prime and secondary industrial
slow. The value of completed projects in the year property yields continue to fall, the prime asset
to March 2010 fell to $3.3 billion, the lowest level premium is likely to be maintained in the short-
in more then 7 years. However, industrial term supporting opportunities for asset class price
construction is expected to improve into 2011, discrimination.
following a thin 12-18 months of additions to
industrial space, as large industrial developers
have recapitalised and access to credit markets
gradually eases. This is becoming evident in the


IMPORTANT NOTICE

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registered with the SEC.
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Telephone +61 3 9273 5555 Fax +61 3 9273 5711 Tel: +1 212 801 9160 Fax: +1 212 801 9163

UNITED KINGDOM BY: NEW ZEALAND BY:
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Telephone +44 20 3229 2121 Fax +44 20 7378 2378

This document (“document”) is distributed to you in Australia and the United Kingdom by Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited
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licence no. 234527 and is authorised in the UK and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (“FSA”).
This document is being distributed in the United States by ANZ Securities, Inc. (“ANZ S”) (an affiliated company of ANZ), which accepts
responsibility for its content. Further information on any securities referred to herein may be obtained from ANZ S upon request. Any US
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