Next Generation NDCs: Setting Sectoral Targets to Maximize Impact

Next Generation NDCs Due Early 2025

A Five-point Plan For Next Generation NDCs

What is a Sectoral Target?
Some examples:
Brazil: “reach zero deforestation by 2030”
China: “increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption
to around 25%”
India: “create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2
equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030”
UK: “phase out unabated coal power by 2024”
US: “reach 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035”

Why Sectoral Targets Matter
Set policy agendas
Signal to investors and the private sector
Promote accountability for implementation

Sectoral Targets in NDCs to Date
Source: State of NDCs 2022

Responding to the Global Stocktake
Source: Adapted from CMA/2023/L.17
Triple renewable energy capacity
Double energy efficiency improvement rate
Transition away from fossil fuels
Reduce emissions from road transport
Reduce non-CO2 emissions

Aligning Sectoral Targets with 1.5°C
Source: Systems ChangeLab

A JUST TRANSITION TO ZERO-CARBON ENERGY
BRUCE DOUGLAS

#3xRenewables
Signed, Sealed, Delivered?
Double Down, Triple Up

Systemic changes needed to
overcome structural barriers
impeding progress.
What we Need
Securing RE sectoral targets
aligned with GST in NDCs will
help drive action across
these areas.

2030 Ambition Gap - NDCs
Source: IEA WEO 2023

Disconnect Between National Energy Plans and NDCs
Existing national
energy policies lead
to nearly 8000
GW(2x) globally by
2030, achieving
70% ofthe tripling
pledge.
Need to align
national plans with
NDCs to raise
ambition,
particularly in this
decade.
Source: IEA WEO 2023

GRA’s Expectations:
• Include sector-specific renewable energy targets in new and updated NDCs.
• These must be aligned with the GST (2030 tripling and phase out), be ambitious for 2035, and
include robust implementation and investment plans.
• This is essential to providing clarity on the future energy mix and ensuring a robust, bankable
pipeline of renewable energy projects.
• Also, an opportunity to align ministries on implementation, foster collaboration with key
stakeholders such as business, and strengthen overall NDC governance.
We encourage governments to announce NDC sectoral targets at the GRA’s Global Renewable
Summit in NYCW.
Sectoral Targets in NDC’s

2030/2035 Ambition Gap and NDC Recommendations
1. Renewable energy targets: include specific, measurable renewable energy capacity targets aligned with the GST
2030 tripling goal. The targets for 2035 must be ambitious.
2. Robust implementation frameworks: include robust energy transition and strategic plans to build confidence
around implementation.
3. Develop investment strategies: that enable public and private institutions to coordinate around implementation
and build a pipeline of projects.
4. Multi-stakeholder governance: Establish “NDC Councils” to enhance collaboration on implementation with the
private sector and civil society.
5. Integrate energy transition goals: to ensure balanced actions that simultaneously phase out fossil fuels while
scaling up renewable energy.
6. NDC Diplomacy: Activate champion governments to enhance international cooperation on this agenda and raise
ambition on NDCs.

Eager to develop ongoing, structured models of collaboration with governments to:
• Ensure ongoing and active participation of market actors in NDC planning and
implementation.
• Generate effective coordination frameworks that facilitate technical and market
intelligence sharing.
• Capacity building - enhance the capacity of officials in understanding energy
markets, innovation and planning and help embed renewable energy planning into
NDCs.
• Knowledge / data sharing hubs - support transparency and sharing of data on
energy demand, project pipelines, and technological advancements to enable
better NDC planning and decision-making.
• Work with civil society and other stakeholders to ensure NDC accountability.
Private Sector Support for NDC Planning

GRA Members
Global Renewables Alliance
@GRA_Renewables
@GlobalRenewablesAlliance
www.globalrenewablesalliance.org
#3xRenewables
Thank you

SUBNATIONAL CLIMATE ACTION:
BUILDINGS & TRANSPORT
PANDORA BATRA

Today’s World is an Urban World
Photo: Social Income/Unsplash
+2.5 billion
more people in cities by 2050
Majority of people
emissions, economic activity
All cities must be carbon
neutral by 2050
-IPCC 1.5° Report
+1 billion
vehicles in cities by 2050
3/4 infrastructure
in cities by 2050 yet to be built

The Potential of Zero-carbon Cities
Source: Stockholm Environmental Institute and Vivid Economics for the Coalition for Urban Transitions(2019)
* Excluding decarbonisation of electricity
TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE POTENTIAL TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
FROM CITIES BY 2050, BY SECTOR
• Technically feasible low-carbon measures could
cut emissions from urban buildings, transport,
materials use and waste by almost90%; support
45 million jobs, and generate a return of at least
US$23.9 trillionby 2050.
• >50% of urban mitigation potential is in urban
areas with populations under 750,000 which
often lack the financial and technical resources of
larger cities
• Over a third of the urbanmitigationpotential*
relies oncollaboration between all three levels
of government

Coalition for High Ambition Multi-level Partnerships (CHAMP)
Countries develop enhanced NDCsincorporating
strong subnational content ANDinclude
subnational governments in process of enhancing
their NDC
Subnational governments in CHAMP countries able
to progress, finance anddeliver more ambitious
inclusive climate action
72 countries endorsed CHAMP at COP28
Only 24% of NDCs contain strong urbancontent. The
trend is moving in theright direction since only14%
contained strong urban content in 2016 however there
is still more progress to be made.

Key CHAMP Principals
Collaborate
Work with our subnational governments to unlock and realise action
opportunities by involving them in the review, design, enhancement,
consolidation and implementation of our national commitments
NDC 2025
Create inclusive institutional and informal processes to enable subnational
governments to contribute to further enhancing NDCs, where applicable, ahead
of COP30 in 2025
NDC
Investment
Include relevant subnational government projects in climate-related
investment priorities and strive to help them secure the resources necessary
from public and private financial institutions
Consult
Consult with our respective subnational governments to determinethe
avenues for subnational action to contribute to national mitigation and
adaptation commitments and strategies

The Transport Sector at a Glance
Emissions and the
energy demand from
land transport
The transport sector accounted for 20.7% of global fossil fuel
CO2 emissions in 2022. Road transport contributes more than three-
quarters of global transport CO2 emissions.
Integration
of systems
Current lack of access to affordable, safe, sustainableland transport
creates a demand for more integrated public use land transport
systems.
Globaltrade
Transport is a major element of the global economy. International trade
depends on transporting goods across borders byroad, rail, air, or sea.

Road to Clean Transport
Source: IEA Net Zero Roadmap
• The transport sector will need to abate
energy usage by 10% by 2030 and
25% by 2035, with an energy mix that
goes from a 5% share of clean sources
to 20% in 2030 and over a third by
2035.
• This also includes the need to double
the share of fossil fuel free land
transport, particularly, which
constitutes over 70% of transport
emissions.

Setting Targets for the Transport Sector
Infographic source: SLOCAT
Countries should set targets for fossil fuel-free transport for
land transport and ideally for the whole sector. Subsector
commitments should complement with:
• Scaling up public transport infrastructure and services
• Investing in active mobility (walking and cycling)
• Addressing freight: electric medium and heavy-duty vehicles,
shifting to rail
• Phasing in all electric fleets for cars, public transport, and
two- and three-wheelers
• Goals on inland water transport
• Sustainable fuels for aviation and maritime, shifts to rail on
short distance intercity travel
• Connections to powering the sector through renewable
energy

The Buildings Sector at a Glance
>37% of global energy- and process-related CO2 emissions from buildings
2/3 of current buildings will still be here in 2050
2X global building stock increase by 2060

Road to Emissions Reductions in Buildings
Source: Buildings - Energy System - IEA
Aligning to the IEA Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)
Scenario and Paris goals, by 2030 the sector must:
o Reduce operational emissions by 10% per
year.
o Reduce embodied emissions for all new
buildings by an average of 10% per year.
o Increase major retrofits by at least 3-5%.
Despite high proportions of NDC's mentioning
measures for buildings and construction only a fraction
of NDCs (18%) specify estimated GHG reduction
targets for mitigation, and only 27 NDCs (16%) specify
financing requirements for at least one of the
mitigation measures.
Energy consumption in buildings by fuel in the
Net Zero Scenario, 2010-2030

Buildings targets in NDCS
1. Programme for Energy Efficiency in Buildings (PEEB) report
• Buildings-related measures, such as
energy efficiency in building structure,
design, and financing are lagging and
need quantifiable targets for mitigation
objectives.1
• To enhance building sector commitments:
– Incorporate combined embodied and
operational carbon building
regulations into NDCs
– Include implementation and
financing mechanisms specifically
that address multi-level governance
and both mitigation and adaptation
objectives.

FOOD, AGRICULTURE AND LAND USE
RENÉ ZAMORA-CRISTALES

A Shift to Resilient Food Systems and Land-use
• Agriculture, forestry and other land uses account for nearly one-fifth of annual GHG
emissions globally and in some regions, it is almost 50%.
• Restoring degraded landscapes is key to achieve sectoral targets.

Source: Escuinlta, European Space Agency
LANDSCAPE RESTORATION

Restore to what?
Recent Developments

Recent Developments
Chile National Restoration Plan
Outlines a set of Public Incentives to
foster restoration
Chile NDC
Commitment to restore 1M
ha
Guatemala National
Restoration Strategy
Probosque
Probosque as Policy
Instrument
Peru ProRest
National Plan 2021- 2030
El Salvador Ecological
Compensations Manual
Ecological compensation
Mexico Matching
Funds
CONAFOR and Water
districts
Nicaragua
Restoration on NDC
All targets in NDC
Costa Rica, Restoration Strategy
Strategy and decarbonization plan
In LAC about 50% of pledges included on NDCs

Source: Systems ChangeLab
Benchmarks for Forestry and Land-Use

Source: Zamora et al., (2020)
Potential Types of Sectoral Targets
✓ Targets for net emissions reductions from forest and land-use sector
✓ Targets for cutting net deforestation
✓ Targets for hectares of reforestation
✓ Targets for additional forest types (e.g., mangroves and peatlands) and
agroforestry
✓ Targets for better crop management and livestock management (e.g. improved
livestock productivity)
✓ Targets for total area under legal protection or land tenure for indigenous people
✓ Targets for more sustainable production and consumption measures (e.g., food
loss and waste targets)

Source: Zamora et al., 2020
How to Structure Sectoral Targets
• Improve monitoring of
landscapes for mitigation
and adaptation, and
crosscutting actions

How to Structure Sectoral Targets
Evidence/
Effectiveness
Public
incentivesand
private finance
Improve
monitoring of
actions,
performance and
impacts
Crosssectorial
collaboration
Evidence beyond
hectares
Policy and Finance Monitoring
Alignment

Resources
• Learn more about the next generation of NDCs due next year at wri.org/ndcs
• Our latest article Next-generation Climate Targets: A 5-Point Plan for NDCs
• NDC Partnership Navigator 3.0: A tool for the development of NDCs to be
submitted in 2025, to support enhanced ambition and accelerate
implementation.
• NDC Enhancement Tracker: Stay tuned for Climate Watch’s new 2025 NDC
Tracker, set to launch later this year.
• WRI’s‘Paying for Paris’: Planning to Finance an NDC? Estimate how much it
will cost to implement it.
• Buildings in the NDCs: Mapping Targets on Buildings in the NDCs
• The Climate Action Tracker: Guide to a good 2035 climate target, which
includes 1.5 degrees C aligned sectoral benchmarks

Next Generation NDCs: Setting Sectoral Targets to Maximize Impact

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