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18
C H A P T E
R

Money Supply and Money
Demand


 MACROECONOMICS SIXTH EDITION
          N. GREGORY MANKIW
      PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovich
              © 2007 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
In this chapter, you will learn…

 how the banking system “creates” money
 three ways the Fed can control the money
  supply, and why the Fed can’t control it precisely
 Theories of money demand
    a portfolio theory
    a transactions theory: the Baumol-Tobin model



CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand         slide 2
Banks’ role in the money supply

 The money supply equals currency plus
  demand (checking account) deposits:
                    M = C + D
 Since the money supply includes demand
  deposits, the banking system plays an
  important role.




CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand   slide 3
A few preliminaries

 Reserves (R ): the portion of deposits that
  banks have not lent.
 A bank’s liabilities include deposits,
  assets include reserves and outstanding loans.
 100-percent-reserve banking: a system in
  which banks hold all deposits as reserves.
 Fractional-reserve banking:
  a system in which banks hold a fraction of their
  deposits as reserves.
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand         slide 4
SCENARIO 1:
       No banks

With no banks,
    D = 0 and M = C = $1000.




CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand   slide 5
SCENARIO 2:
        100-percent reserve banking
 Initially C = $1000, D = $0, M = $1,000.
 Now suppose households deposit the $1,000 at
   “Firstbank.”
                                         After the deposit,
       FIRSTBANK’S                           C = $0,
         balance sheet                       D = $1,000,
     Assets        Liabilities               M = $1,000.
reserves $1,000 deposits $1,000          100%-reserve
                                            banking has no
                                            impact on size of
                                            money supply.
 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand                  slide 6
SCENARIO 3:
        Fractional-reserve banking
  Suppose banks hold 20% of deposits in reserve,
   making loans with the rest.
  Firstbank will make $800 in loans.

       FIRSTBANK’S                          The money supply
                                            now equals $1,800:
         balance sheet
     Assets        Liabilities               Depositor has
                                              $1,000 in
         $200
reserves $1,000 deposits $1,000               demand deposits.
loans $800                                   Borrower holds
                                              $800 in currency.

 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand                     slide 7
SCENARIO 3:
        Fractional-reserve banking
              Thus, in a fractional-reserve
              Thus, in a fractional-reserve
          banking system, banks create money.
          banking system, banks create money.

       FIRSTBANK’S                          The money supply
                                            now equals $1,800:
         balance sheet
     Assets        Liabilities               Depositor has
                                              $1,000 in
reserves $200 deposits $1,000                 demand deposits.
loans $800                                   Borrower holds
                                              $800 in currency.

 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand                     slide 8
SCENARIO 3:
       Fractional-reserve banking
 Suppose the borrower deposits the $800 in
  Secondbank.
 Initially, Secondbank’s balance sheet is:

      SECONDBANK’S                      Secondbank will
        balance sheet                      loan 80% of this
    Assets        Liabilities              deposit.
reserves $800 deposits $800
         $160
loans    $640
         $0


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand                  slide 9
SCENARIO 3:
       Fractional-reserve banking
 If this $640 is eventually deposited in Thirdbank,
 then Thirdbank will keep 20% of it in reserve,
  and loan the rest out:

      THIRDBANK’S
        balance sheet
    Assets        Liabilities
reserves $640 deposits $640
         $128
loans    $512
         $0


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand               slide 10
Finding the total amount of money:

          Original deposit       = $1000
   +     Firstbank lending       = $ 800
   + Secondbank lending = $ 640
   +     Thirdbank lending       = $ 512
   +      other lending…

    Total money supply = (1/rr ) × $1,000
     where rr = ratio of reserves to deposits
    In our example, rr = 0.2, so M = $5,000

CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand        slide 11
Money creation in the banking
       system


    A fractional reserve banking system creates
    money, but it doesn’t create wealth:
    Bank loans give borrowers some new money
    and an equal amount of new debt.




CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand          slide 12
A model of the money supply
                   exogenous variables

 Monetary base, B = C + R
    controlled by the central bank

 Reserve-deposit ratio, rr = R/D
    depends on regulations & bank policies

 Currency-deposit ratio, cr = C/D
    depends on households’ preferences


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand     slide 13
Solving for the money supply:
             C +D
  M = C +D =      ×B                       = m ×B
               B
 where
      C +D
  m =
        B

        =
          C +D
               =
                 ( C D ) + ( D D ) = cr + 1
          C +R   ( C D ) + ( R D ) cr + r r


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand            slide 14
The money multiplier
                                     cr + 1
     M = m ×B ,           where m =
                                    cr + rr
 If rr < 1, then m > 1
 If monetary base changes by ∆B,
  then ∆M = m × ∆B
 m is the money multiplier,
  the increase in the money supply
  resulting from a one-dollar increase
  in the monetary base.
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand      slide 15
Exercise
                                     cr + 1
     M = m ×B ,           where m =
                                    cr + rr

  Suppose households decide to hold more of
  their money as currency and less in the form of
  demand deposits.
   1. Determine impact on money supply.
   2. Explain the intuition for your result.



CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand            slide 16
Solution to exercise

Impact of an increase in the currency-deposit ratio

∆cr > 0.
  1. An increase in cr increases the denominator
     of m proportionally more than the numerator.
     So m falls, causing M to fall.
  2. If households deposit less of their money,
     then banks can’t make as many loans,
     so the banking system won’t be able to
     “create” as much money.
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand           slide 17
Three instruments of
       monetary policy

1. Open-market operations

2. Reserve requirements

3. The discount rate




CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand   slide 18
Open-market operations

 definition:
  The purchase or sale of government bonds by
  the Federal Reserve.
 how it works:
  If Fed buys bonds from the public,
  it pays with new dollars, increasing B and
  therefore M.



CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand        slide 19
Reserve requirements

 definition:
  Fed regulations that require banks to hold a
  minimum reserve-deposit ratio.
 how it works:
  Reserve requirements affect rr and m:
  If Fed reduces reserve requirements,
  then banks can make more loans and
  “create” more money from each deposit.


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand         slide 20
The discount rate

 definition:
  The interest rate that the Fed charges on loans it
  makes to banks.
 how it works:
  When banks borrow from the Fed, their reserves
  increase, allowing them to make more loans and
  “create” more money.
  The Fed can increase B by lowering the
  discount rate to induce banks to borrow more
  reserves from the Fed.
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand         slide 21
Which instrument is used most
      often?

 Open-market operations:
      most frequently used.
 Changes in reserve requirements:
      least frequently used.
 Changes in the discount rate:
      largely symbolic.
      The Fed is a “lender of last resort,”
      does not usually make loans to banks
      on demand.
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand      slide 22
Why the Fed can’t precisely control
     M
                             cr + 1
     M = m × B , where m =
                            cr + rr
 Households can change cr,
  causing m and M to change.
 Banks often hold excess reserves
  (reserves above the reserve requirement).
  If banks change their excess reserves,
  then rr, m, and M change.


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand      slide 23
CASE STUDY:
       Bank failures in the 1930s

 From 1929 to 1933,
    Over 9,000 banks closed.
    Money supply fell 28%.
 This drop in the money supply may have caused
  the Great Depression.
  It certainly contributed to the severity of the
  Depression.



CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand            slide 24
CASE STUDY:
      Bank failures in the 1930s
                               cr + 1
     M = m × B , where m =
                              cr + rr
 Loss of confidence in banks
      ⇒ ↑cr ⇒ ↓m
 Banks became more cautious
      ⇒ ↑rr ⇒ ↓m




CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand   slide 25
CASE STUDY:
       Bank failures in the 1930s
               August 1929      March 1933   % change
        M            26.5            19.0     –28.3%
        C              3.9            5.5      41.0
        D            22.6            13.5     –40.3
        B              7.1            8.4      18.3
        C              3.9            5.5      41.0
        R              3.2            2.9      –9.4
        m              3.7            2.3     –37.8
        rr            0.14            0.21     50.0
       cr             0.17            0.41    141.2
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand                slide 26
Could this happen again?

 Many policies have been implemented since the
  1930s to prevent such widespread bank failures.
 E.g., Federal Deposit Insurance,
  to prevent bank runs and large swings in the
  currency-deposit ratio.




CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand         slide 27
Money Demand

Two types of theories
 Portfolio theories
    emphasize “store of value” function
    relevant for M2, M3
    not relevant for M1. (As a store of value,
     M1 is dominated by other assets.)
 Transactions theories
    emphasize “medium of exchange” function
    also relevant for M1
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand          slide 28
A simple portfolio theory

           ( M / P )d = L ( r s , r b , π e , W ) ,
                              −    −    −     +
where
rs   = expected real return on stocks
rb   = expected real return on bonds
π e = expected inflation rate
W = real wealth



CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand              slide 29
The Baumol-Tobin Model

 a transactions theory of money demand
 notation:
   Y = total spending, done gradually over the year
   i   = interest rate on savings account
   N = number of trips consumer makes to the bank

        to withdraw money from savings account
   F = cost of a trip to the bank
       (e.g., if a trip takes 15 minutes and
        consumer’s wage = $12/hour, then F = $3)
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand         slide 30
Money holdings over the year
               Money
               holdings               N=1
                     Y
                                            Average
                                            = Y/ 2




                                            1   Time


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand              slide 31
Money holdings over the year
               Money
               holdings               N=2
                     Y

                   Y/ 2                     Average
                                            = Y/ 4




                                    1/2     1   Time


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand              slide 32
Money holdings over the year
               Money
               holdings               N=3
                     Y


                                                 Average
                   Y/ 3                          = Y/ 6




                               1/3         2/3   1   Time


CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand                   slide 33
The cost of holding money

 In general, average money holdings = Y/2N
 Foregone interest = i ×(Y/2N )
 Cost of N trips to bank = F ×N
 Thus,


 Given Y, i, and F,
  consumer chooses N to minimize total cost
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand      slide 34
Finding the cost-minimizing N

Cost                                            Foregone
                                                interest =
                                                iY/2N
                                                Cost of trips
                                                = FN

                                                Total cost


                   N*                       N

 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand                slide 35
The money demand function

 The cost-minimizing value of N :
 To obtain the money demand function,
  plug N* into the expression for average
  money holdings:




 Money demand depends positively on Y and F,
   and negatively on i.
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand    slide 37
The money demand function
 The Baumol-Tobin money demand function:




How this money demand function differs from
previous chapters:
  B-T shows how F affects money demand.
  B-T implies:
   income elasticity of money demand = 0.5,
   interest rate elasticity of money demand = −0.5
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand             slide 38
EXERCISE:
      The impact of ATMs on money
      demand
                         During the 1980s,
                         automatic teller machines
                         became widely available.
                         How do you think this affected
                         N* and money demand?
                         Explain.




CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand             slide 39
Financial Innovation, Near Money, and

       the Demise of the Monetary
       Aggregates
   Examples of financial innovation:
     many checking accounts now pay interest
     very easy to buy and sell assets
     mutual funds are baskets of stocks that are
      easy to redeem - just write a check
 Non-monetary assets having some of the
    liquidity of money are called near money.
 Money & near money are close substitutes,
    and switching from one to the other is easy.
CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand            slide 40
Financial Innovation, Near Money, and

        the Demise of the Monetary
        Aggregates
   The rise of near money makes money demand
    less stable and complicates monetary policy.
 1993: the Fed switched from targeting monetary
    aggregates to targeting the Federal Funds rate.
 This change may help explain why the U.S.
    economy was so stable during the rest of the
    1990s.



CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand           slide 41
Chapter Summary
1. Fractional reserve banking creates money because
   each dollar of reserves generates many dollars of
   demand deposits.
2. The money supply depends on the
     monetary base
     currency-deposit ratio
     reserve ratio
3. The Fed can control the money supply with
     open market operations
     the reserve requirement
     the discount rate
CHAPTER 18   Money Supply and Money Demand        slide 42
Chapter Summary
4. Portfolio theories of money demand
     stress the store of value function
     posit that money demand depends on risk/return
      of money & alternative assets
5. The Baumol-Tobin model
     a transactions theory of money demand,
      stresses “medium of exchange” function
     money demand depends positively on spending,
      negatively on the interest rate,
      and positively on the cost of converting
      non-monetary assets to money
CHAPTER 18   Money Supply and Money Demand        slide 43

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Chap18

  • 1. 18 C H A P T E R Money Supply and Money Demand MACROECONOMICS SIXTH EDITION N. GREGORY MANKIW PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovich © 2007 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
  • 2. In this chapter, you will learn…  how the banking system “creates” money  three ways the Fed can control the money supply, and why the Fed can’t control it precisely  Theories of money demand  a portfolio theory  a transactions theory: the Baumol-Tobin model CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 2
  • 3. Banks’ role in the money supply  The money supply equals currency plus demand (checking account) deposits: M = C + D  Since the money supply includes demand deposits, the banking system plays an important role. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 3
  • 4. A few preliminaries  Reserves (R ): the portion of deposits that banks have not lent.  A bank’s liabilities include deposits, assets include reserves and outstanding loans.  100-percent-reserve banking: a system in which banks hold all deposits as reserves.  Fractional-reserve banking: a system in which banks hold a fraction of their deposits as reserves. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 4
  • 5. SCENARIO 1: No banks With no banks, D = 0 and M = C = $1000. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 5
  • 6. SCENARIO 2: 100-percent reserve banking  Initially C = $1000, D = $0, M = $1,000.  Now suppose households deposit the $1,000 at “Firstbank.”  After the deposit, FIRSTBANK’S C = $0, balance sheet D = $1,000, Assets Liabilities M = $1,000. reserves $1,000 deposits $1,000  100%-reserve banking has no impact on size of money supply. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 6
  • 7. SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking  Suppose banks hold 20% of deposits in reserve, making loans with the rest.  Firstbank will make $800 in loans. FIRSTBANK’S The money supply now equals $1,800: balance sheet Assets Liabilities  Depositor has $1,000 in $200 reserves $1,000 deposits $1,000 demand deposits. loans $800  Borrower holds $800 in currency. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 7
  • 8. SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking Thus, in a fractional-reserve Thus, in a fractional-reserve banking system, banks create money. banking system, banks create money. FIRSTBANK’S The money supply now equals $1,800: balance sheet Assets Liabilities  Depositor has $1,000 in reserves $200 deposits $1,000 demand deposits. loans $800  Borrower holds $800 in currency. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 8
  • 9. SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking  Suppose the borrower deposits the $800 in Secondbank.  Initially, Secondbank’s balance sheet is: SECONDBANK’S  Secondbank will balance sheet loan 80% of this Assets Liabilities deposit. reserves $800 deposits $800 $160 loans $640 $0 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 9
  • 10. SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking  If this $640 is eventually deposited in Thirdbank,  then Thirdbank will keep 20% of it in reserve, and loan the rest out: THIRDBANK’S balance sheet Assets Liabilities reserves $640 deposits $640 $128 loans $512 $0 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 10
  • 11. Finding the total amount of money: Original deposit = $1000 + Firstbank lending = $ 800 + Secondbank lending = $ 640 + Thirdbank lending = $ 512 + other lending… Total money supply = (1/rr ) × $1,000 where rr = ratio of reserves to deposits In our example, rr = 0.2, so M = $5,000 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 11
  • 12. Money creation in the banking system A fractional reserve banking system creates money, but it doesn’t create wealth: Bank loans give borrowers some new money and an equal amount of new debt. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 12
  • 13. A model of the money supply exogenous variables  Monetary base, B = C + R controlled by the central bank  Reserve-deposit ratio, rr = R/D depends on regulations & bank policies  Currency-deposit ratio, cr = C/D depends on households’ preferences CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 13
  • 14. Solving for the money supply: C +D M = C +D = ×B = m ×B B where C +D m = B = C +D = ( C D ) + ( D D ) = cr + 1 C +R ( C D ) + ( R D ) cr + r r CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 14
  • 15. The money multiplier cr + 1 M = m ×B , where m = cr + rr  If rr < 1, then m > 1  If monetary base changes by ∆B, then ∆M = m × ∆B  m is the money multiplier, the increase in the money supply resulting from a one-dollar increase in the monetary base. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 15
  • 16. Exercise cr + 1 M = m ×B , where m = cr + rr Suppose households decide to hold more of their money as currency and less in the form of demand deposits. 1. Determine impact on money supply. 2. Explain the intuition for your result. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 16
  • 17. Solution to exercise Impact of an increase in the currency-deposit ratio ∆cr > 0. 1. An increase in cr increases the denominator of m proportionally more than the numerator. So m falls, causing M to fall. 2. If households deposit less of their money, then banks can’t make as many loans, so the banking system won’t be able to “create” as much money. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 17
  • 18. Three instruments of monetary policy 1. Open-market operations 2. Reserve requirements 3. The discount rate CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 18
  • 19. Open-market operations  definition: The purchase or sale of government bonds by the Federal Reserve.  how it works: If Fed buys bonds from the public, it pays with new dollars, increasing B and therefore M. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 19
  • 20. Reserve requirements  definition: Fed regulations that require banks to hold a minimum reserve-deposit ratio.  how it works: Reserve requirements affect rr and m: If Fed reduces reserve requirements, then banks can make more loans and “create” more money from each deposit. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 20
  • 21. The discount rate  definition: The interest rate that the Fed charges on loans it makes to banks.  how it works: When banks borrow from the Fed, their reserves increase, allowing them to make more loans and “create” more money. The Fed can increase B by lowering the discount rate to induce banks to borrow more reserves from the Fed. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 21
  • 22. Which instrument is used most often?  Open-market operations: most frequently used.  Changes in reserve requirements: least frequently used.  Changes in the discount rate: largely symbolic. The Fed is a “lender of last resort,” does not usually make loans to banks on demand. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 22
  • 23. Why the Fed can’t precisely control M cr + 1 M = m × B , where m = cr + rr  Households can change cr, causing m and M to change.  Banks often hold excess reserves (reserves above the reserve requirement). If banks change their excess reserves, then rr, m, and M change. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 23
  • 24. CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s  From 1929 to 1933,  Over 9,000 banks closed.  Money supply fell 28%.  This drop in the money supply may have caused the Great Depression. It certainly contributed to the severity of the Depression. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 24
  • 25. CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s cr + 1 M = m × B , where m = cr + rr  Loss of confidence in banks ⇒ ↑cr ⇒ ↓m  Banks became more cautious ⇒ ↑rr ⇒ ↓m CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 25
  • 26. CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s August 1929 March 1933 % change M 26.5 19.0 –28.3% C 3.9 5.5 41.0 D 22.6 13.5 –40.3 B 7.1 8.4 18.3 C 3.9 5.5 41.0 R 3.2 2.9 –9.4 m 3.7 2.3 –37.8 rr 0.14 0.21 50.0 cr 0.17 0.41 141.2 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 26
  • 27. Could this happen again?  Many policies have been implemented since the 1930s to prevent such widespread bank failures.  E.g., Federal Deposit Insurance, to prevent bank runs and large swings in the currency-deposit ratio. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 27
  • 28. Money Demand Two types of theories  Portfolio theories  emphasize “store of value” function  relevant for M2, M3  not relevant for M1. (As a store of value, M1 is dominated by other assets.)  Transactions theories  emphasize “medium of exchange” function  also relevant for M1 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 28
  • 29. A simple portfolio theory ( M / P )d = L ( r s , r b , π e , W ) , − − − + where rs = expected real return on stocks rb = expected real return on bonds π e = expected inflation rate W = real wealth CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 29
  • 30. The Baumol-Tobin Model  a transactions theory of money demand  notation: Y = total spending, done gradually over the year i = interest rate on savings account N = number of trips consumer makes to the bank to withdraw money from savings account F = cost of a trip to the bank (e.g., if a trip takes 15 minutes and consumer’s wage = $12/hour, then F = $3) CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 30
  • 31. Money holdings over the year Money holdings N=1 Y Average = Y/ 2 1 Time CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 31
  • 32. Money holdings over the year Money holdings N=2 Y Y/ 2 Average = Y/ 4 1/2 1 Time CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 32
  • 33. Money holdings over the year Money holdings N=3 Y Average Y/ 3 = Y/ 6 1/3 2/3 1 Time CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 33
  • 34. The cost of holding money  In general, average money holdings = Y/2N  Foregone interest = i ×(Y/2N )  Cost of N trips to bank = F ×N  Thus,  Given Y, i, and F, consumer chooses N to minimize total cost CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 34
  • 35. Finding the cost-minimizing N Cost Foregone interest = iY/2N Cost of trips = FN Total cost N* N CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 35
  • 36. The money demand function  The cost-minimizing value of N :  To obtain the money demand function, plug N* into the expression for average money holdings:  Money demand depends positively on Y and F, and negatively on i. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 37
  • 37. The money demand function  The Baumol-Tobin money demand function: How this money demand function differs from previous chapters:  B-T shows how F affects money demand.  B-T implies: income elasticity of money demand = 0.5, interest rate elasticity of money demand = −0.5 CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 38
  • 38. EXERCISE: The impact of ATMs on money demand During the 1980s, automatic teller machines became widely available. How do you think this affected N* and money demand? Explain. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 39
  • 39. Financial Innovation, Near Money, and the Demise of the Monetary Aggregates  Examples of financial innovation:  many checking accounts now pay interest  very easy to buy and sell assets  mutual funds are baskets of stocks that are easy to redeem - just write a check  Non-monetary assets having some of the liquidity of money are called near money.  Money & near money are close substitutes, and switching from one to the other is easy. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 40
  • 40. Financial Innovation, Near Money, and the Demise of the Monetary Aggregates  The rise of near money makes money demand less stable and complicates monetary policy.  1993: the Fed switched from targeting monetary aggregates to targeting the Federal Funds rate.  This change may help explain why the U.S. economy was so stable during the rest of the 1990s. CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 41
  • 41. Chapter Summary 1. Fractional reserve banking creates money because each dollar of reserves generates many dollars of demand deposits. 2. The money supply depends on the  monetary base  currency-deposit ratio  reserve ratio 3. The Fed can control the money supply with  open market operations  the reserve requirement  the discount rate CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 42
  • 42. Chapter Summary 4. Portfolio theories of money demand  stress the store of value function  posit that money demand depends on risk/return of money & alternative assets 5. The Baumol-Tobin model  a transactions theory of money demand, stresses “medium of exchange” function  money demand depends positively on spending, negatively on the interest rate, and positively on the cost of converting non-monetary assets to money CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 43

Editor's Notes

  1. This chapter is particularly good for students with interests in money and banking and finance. The first half of this chapter covers money supply, including money creation in the banking system, and how the central bank controls the money supply. Much of this material is review for most students who took a macro principles course. However, this chapter presents a model of the money multiplier that is more realistic than the models found in most principles texts. The second half of the chapter presents several theories of money demand.
  2. It might be worthwhile at this point to explain why deposits are liabilities and why reserves and loans are assets.
  3. In this and the following examples, we assume there is $1000 in currency circulating in the economy. We then compare the size of the money supply in different scenarios about the banking system: no banks, 100% reserve banking, and fractional reserve banking.
  4. Maybe the borrower deposits the $800 in the bank. Or maybe the borrower uses the money to buy something from someone else, who then deposits it in the bank. In either case, the $800 finds its way back into the banking system.
  5. Again, the person who borrowed the $640 will either deposit it in his own checking account, or will use it to buy something from somebody who, in turn, deposits it in her checking account. In either case, the $640 winds up in a bank somewhere, and that bank can then use it to make new loans.
  6. The point of all this algebra is to express the money supply in terms of the three exogenous variables described on the preceding slide.
  7. Note: An increase in cr raises both the numerator and denominator of the expression for m . But since rr &lt; 1, the denominator is smaller than the numerator, so a given increase in cr will increase the denominator proportionally more than the numerator, causing a decrease in m . If your students know calculus, they can use the quotient rule to see that (d m /d cr ) &lt; 0.
  8. Why it’s called “open market operations”: The “operations” are the buying and selling. The market in which U.S. Treasury bonds are traded is “open” in the sense that anyone---you, me, your Aunt Zelda, the Fed---can buy or sell in this market.
  9. Why not reserve requirements? Making them too low creates a risk of bank runs. Making them too high makes banking unprofitable. In addition, banking would be difficult if the Fed changed reserve requirements frequently.
  10. Table 18-1, p.517. Source: Adapted from Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963), Appendix A. To the table, I have added an extra column with the percent changes. I have animated the table so that the rows appear in three groups. First group: M , C , and D , because M = C + D Second group: B , C , and R , because B = C + R Third group: m and its components, rr and cr The base rises, yet the money multiplier falls so much that the money supply falls.
  11. Why portfolio theories are not relevant for M1: As a store of value, M1 is dominated by other assets: other assets serve the store of value function as well as M1, but offer a better risk/return profile, so there is no reason why anybody would hold M1 for a store of value.
  12. Intuition for the signs: Stocks and bonds are alternatives to money. An increase in their expected returns makes money less attractive, and thus reduces desired money holdings. The real return to holding money is -  e . An increase in  e is a decrease in the real return to holding money, which would cause a decrease in desired money balances. And finally, an increase in wealth causes an increase in the demand for all assets.
  13. In the Baumol-Tobin model, we assume for simplicity that the consumer’s wealth is divided between cash on hand and savings account deposits. The savings account pays interest rate i , while cash pays no nominal interest. Alternatively, we can think of “money” in the Baumol-Tobin model as representing all monetary assets, including some that pay interest. Then, i in the model would be the interest rate on non-monetary assets (e.g. stocks &amp; bonds) minus the interest rate on monetary assets (interest-bearing checking &amp; money market deposit accounts). F would be the cost of converting non-monetary assets into monetary ones, such as a brokerage fee. The decision about how often to pay the brokerage fee is analogous to the decision about how often to make a trip to the bank.
  14. Figure 18-1 on p.521. Our first step: compute average money holdings as a function of N. (Then, we will find the optimal value of N.) If N=1, then the consumer withdraws $Y from her savings account at the beginning of the year. As she spends it gradually throughout the year, her money holdings fall.
  15. Figure 18-1 on p.521. If N = 2, consumer makes one trip at the beginning of the year, withdraws half of the money she will spend throughout the year. She spends it gradually over the first half of the year until it runs out. Then she makes another trip, withdrawing enough money to last her the second half of the year, and spends it down gradually.
  16. Figure 18-1 on p.521.
  17. Figure 18-2 on p.523. (For any value of N, the height of the red line equals the height of the blue line plus the height of the green line at that N.) This slide shows the graphical derivation of N*. The following slide uses basic calculus to derive an expression for N*. It is “hidden” and can be omitted without loss of continuity. If you display it, then before leaving this slide you might point out that the slope of the cost function (red line) equals zero at N*.
  18. This slide uses calculus to derive N*. Since a calculus background is not assumed, I have “hidden” this slide. If you wish to include it in your presentation, click on the Slide Show drop-down menu, and unselect “Hide Slide”.
  19. If you did not show your students the slide with the calculus derivation of the expression for N*, then you can just say “it turns out that N* is equal to this expression….”
  20. Page 523 of the text contains a very nice paragraph discussing things that alter F , and hence money demand: automatic teller machines internet banking wages (higher wages increase the opportunity cost of time spent visiting the bank) bank or brokerage fees
  21. Answer: (From p.523) “The spread of automatic teller machines reduces F by reducing the time it takes to withdraw money.” Lower F increases N* and decreases money demand - you can see this from the expressions N* and money demand. A decrease in the cost of withdrawing money allows consumers to hold lower real money balances relative to their spending, so they can keep more of their money in interest-bearing bank accounts. Of course, they will need to make more trips to the bank now, but doing so is less costly.
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